CSIS: AMTI Brief – January 15, 2016

In early September 2015, AMTI released images showing that China had effectively completed construction of its first Spratly Islands airstrip on Fiery Cross Reef, was continuing work on its second at Subi Reef, and was preparing to begin work on a third at Mischief Reef. Four months later, China has not only landed three civilian test flights on Fiery Cross, but is progressing even faster than expected with its work at Subi and especially Mischief. Construction of the Fiery Cross airstrip took at least seven months from the start of grading, which was visible by February 2015. Work at Subi, where grading began in June or July, seems to be proceeding slightly quicker. And at Mischief, where grading began in September or October, construction is already approaching completion just three to four months later. Meanwhile China is rapidly building out other facilities on both Mischief and Subi.   Read on…

Featured Imagery

Mischief Reef. January 8, 2016.

The entire runway at Mischief Reef. January 8, 2016.

Subi Reef. January 8, 2016.

Northern end of Subi Reef runway. January 8, 2016.

by Ernest Bower and Conor Cronin
The timing of the decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on the Philippines’ case against China’s nine-dash-line claims has critical geopolitical implications for Asia’s security. Specifically, a decision delivered well before the Philippine presidential election this May would allow the administration of President Benigno Aquino to respond strategically and with continuity, whatever the outcome. A decision delivered after May would in effect roll the dice by putting a new leadership team in Manila in charge of managing the court’s determination. Read on…

Itu Aba/Taiping Island is the largest naturally-formed feature in the disputed Spratly Islands and the only one occupied by the Republic of China (Taiwan). Its legal status has become a topic of heated debate as the Philippines has argued before an arbitral tribunal at The Hague that Itu Aba cannot sustain human habitation or independent economic life and is therefore legally a rock, not an island as defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This would entitle Itu Aba to only a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea, not an exclusive economic zone or continental shelf. The government in Taipei insists that Itu Aba has all the necessities for human habitation, including fresh water and local food production, and sought to highlight that during a December 12 visit to the island by Interior Minister Chen Wei-zen. Read on…