‘Hopeless and broken’: why the world’s top climate scientists are in despair

We asked 380 top climate scientists what they felt about the future…

theguardian.com

 Hopeless and broken – Ruth Cerezo-Mota Mexico

 We live in an age of fools – Anonymous South Africa

I worry about the future my children are inheriting – Lorraine Whitmarsh UK

They are terrified, but determined to keep fighting.Here’s what they said

Exclusive: Survey of hundreds of experts reveals harrowing picture of future, but they warn climate fight must not be abandoned

Damian Carrington Environment editorWed 8 May 2024 10.00 BSTShare

“Sometimes it is almost impossible not to feel hopeless and broken,” says the climate scientist Ruth Cerezo-Mota. “After all the flooding, fires, and droughts of the last three years worldwide, all related to climate change, and after the fury of Hurricane Otis in Mexico, my country, I really thought governments were ready to listen to the science, to act in the people’s best interest.”

Instead, Cerezo-Mota expects the world to heat by a catastrophic 3C this century, soaring past the internationally agreed 1.5C target and delivering enormous suffering to billions of people. This is her optimistic view, she says.

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The world is reducing its reliance on fossil fuels – except for in three key sectors

theguardian.com

Dramatic changes in energy industry and EVs reducing fossil fuel use, but shipping, aviation and industry a long way from net zero

@olliemilmanFri 9 Feb 2024 12.00 GMT

Humanity has made some uneven progress in reducing our addiction to fossil fuels – but there remain three areas of our lives in which we are notably not on track to kick the habit over the next 30 years, according to a new analysis.

Record levels of investment in clean energy (solar has been called the cheapest source of electricity in history by the International Energy Agency) and a decline in coal-powered generation means less and less of the world’s power will come from fossil fuels between now and 2050, the analysis from Rhodium shows.

Similarly, the blossoming electric vehicle market is going to drive down emissions from cars and trucks, with global oil consumption for on-road vehicles set to drop by 50% over the next three decades, the forecast finds.

But even with these dramatic changes reshaping two of the world’s hungriest consumers of fossil fuels, emissions are still a long way from hitting net zero by 2050, as scientists say they must if dangerous global heating – spurring worsening heatwaves, floods, droughts and more – is to be avoided.https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/02/archive-zip/giv-13425ZCBwhBxEyLin/

A major reason for this is the stubborn, ongoing carbon pollution from three areas: aviation, shipping and industry.

.https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/02/archive-zip/giv-13425v3zDOTaHHQGz/

There is currently no widespread alternative to jet fuel or ship diesel, meaning steady or even rising fossil fuel use as developing countries’ economies grow. A range of industrial processes – such as cement-making and the production of plastic – will collectively fail to meaningfully cut carbon-intensive fuels by 2050, too.

“We’ve made a lot of progress in the last few years – wind and solar are really poster children of success and electric vehicles are at a turning point now,” said Hannah Pitt, associate director at Rhodium, which made the projections based on anticipated policies until 2050.

“That makes up a good chunk of emissions but there is much less progress in other sectors. With aviation and shipping, there’s just not as much innovation and no clear cost-effective alternatives to fossil fuels.

“And then we have industrial processes that make up a huge fraction of emissions and each require their own tools and innovations to bring that down, and emissions are staying stubbornly high.”

All told, global fossil fuel use will likely flatten or decline by mid-century before starting to grow again due to rising energy demand in various parts of the world, according to the report’s projections. Gas will lead the way, rising significantly in use even as oil and coal decline.https://interactive.guim.co.uk/uploader/embed/2024/02/archive-zip/giv-13425v3zDOTaHHQGz/

Pitt said we are still a long way from breaking our dependence on fossil fuels in everything from switching on a light at home, to driving a car, to getting an Amazon package delivered, to flying to a holiday destination.

“The success with renewables and EVs shows it can be done, but it really will take a lot of different policies and innovations. There’s no one solution,” said Pitt.

“This is a good reminder that climate change touches every piece of our economies, and it needs solutions to each of those areas. There is a lot of work to do.”

International business in Russia risks slipping from compliance to complicity

businesshumanrights.org

Moscow City Towers on the bank of Moskva River

On 21 September, 2022, an IT specialist with the Austrian Raiffeisen Bank, Timur Izmailov, was leading a normal life in Moscow. Three weeks later Izmailov found himself serving as a soldier in Russia’s 27th motorized rifle brigade near the Ukrainian city of Svatove, when he was eventually killed by mortar fire. How does a 33-year-old techie make his way from his cubicle to the frontline of an unprovoked war in a neighbouring democratic state?

Timur’s journey began on 24 February, 2022, when President Vladimir Putin ordered the all-out military invasion of Ukraine in continuation of a war started in 2014. The response was immediate. The Ukrainian people and their leadership — with the support of the democratic allies — have defended themselves against armed aggression despite gross human rights violations.

Western sanctions imposed on Russia created an extremely hostile commercial environment for companies such as Raiffeisen to continue their operations in the aggressor state. Many international firms pulled out, announcing plans to leave or suspend activity in Russia. But many more international companies continue to operate and pay taxes, thus contributing to the occupation of Ukraine and undermining the financial support provided to Ukraine by their own governments.

On 21 September 2022, President Vladimir Putin issued the mobilization decree that obliged companies to immediately assist in conscripting soldiers and help equip the Russian army. The results of this piece of legislation were immediately felt by many, including Timur Izmailov. Raiffeisen’s attempts to shield their staff from the draft failed.

How do bank employees in other countries feel knowing this is happening to their colleagues in Russia? How does a client of Raiffeisen based in Vienna feel, knowing the employees of his bank might soon become soldiers sent to the battlefield to kill innocent civilians in Ukraine?

An additional stopover on the companies’ journey from compliance to complicity happened last July, when Putin signed a new law allowing the government to impose special economic measures to support “counter-terrorism and other operations outside of Russia”. Once introduced, such measures would require companies to provide goods and services in support of these operations and impose significant penalties for failing to do so. In accordance with the law of 7 October 2022, the Russian subsidiary of Raiffeisen Bank International is now obliged to provide loan payment holidays to the troops fighting in Ukraine. Moreover, the bank is required to write off the entire debt in case of a soldier’s death. This legal requirement concerns other financial institutions that still operate in Russia, namely Intesa Sanpaolo, OTP Bank, ING Bank, Credit Agricole, Citibank, Credit Europe Bank and UniCredit.

This loan relief scheme has already triggered criticism from Ukraine’s central bank, as well as from investors concerned about reputational impact. The requirement for banks to grant payment holidays to soldiers “illustrates the dangers of operating in jurisdictions where companies can…be forced into actions that go directly against their corporate values,” said Eric Christian Pederson of Nordea Asset Management. “We feel that it is right for companies to withdraw from Russia, given its unprovoked attack on Ukraine,” he added.

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First they came…- Martin Niemöller

Friedrich Gustav Emil Martin Niemöller (14 January 1892 – 6 March 1984) was a German theologian and Lutheran pastor. He is best known for his opposition to the Nazi regime during the late 1930s and for his widely quoted 1946 “First they came …

In Germany they first came for the Communists,
and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Communist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Jew.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Catholics,
and I didn’t speak up because I was a Protestant.
Then they came for me
and by that time no one was left to speak up.

Visitors stand in front of the quotation from Martin Niemöller that is on display in the Permanent Exhibition of the United States ... [LCID: img4857]

Museum visitors in front of the Martin Niemöller quotation

Visitors stand in front of the quotation from Martin Niemöller that is on display in the Permanent Exhibition of the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. Niemöller was a Lutheran minister and early Nazi supporter who was later imprisoned for opposing Hitler’s regime.

Corn in peril: Viet Nam’s Hmong struggle to save indigenous seeds

Mekongeye.com

By Khang A Tủa and Alex Nguyễn 29 January 2024 at 18:36 (Updated on 30 January 2024 at 10:29)

After decades of pursuing development goals, Hmong people in northern Viet Nam face a battle to preserve disappearing indigenous corn

Cúa bua (in Vietnamese), or quav npua (in Hmong) , an indigenous corn variety in Chế Cu Nha, Mù Cang Chải district, Yên Bái province.

YÊN BÁI & SƠN LA, VIET NAM – Early one winter morning, Khang Chờ Dê of Chế Cu Nha hamlet in Yên Bái province was woken by loud knocking on his door. Sào, his relative, needed some red corn kernels, an indigenous crop used by Hmong people in northern Viet Nam for spiritual offerings to ward off bad luck.

The son of a shaman, Dê understood the importance of red corn in ritual practices. He quickly took some kernels from his kitchen, wrapped them up neatly and handed them to his relative.

Back in bed, the 46-year-old farmer pondered the scarcity of the indigenous cúa bua (in Vietnamese), or quav npua (in Hmong)corn seeds in Chế Cu Nha, his family’s ancestral home. For generations, indigenous corn crops have been essential to Hmong spiritual and cultural traditions, as well as helping to strengthening their autonomy in agricultural cultivation.

Source: Mapbox
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Oil firms forced to consider full climate effects of new drilling, following landmark Norwegian court ruling

theconversation.com Published: January 31, 2024 12.02pm GMT

Norway’s district court in Oslo recently made a decision on fossil fuels that deserves the attention of every person concerned about climate change.

This ruling, which compels energy firms to account for the industry’s entire carbon footprint, could change the way oil and gas licenses are awarded in Norway – and inspire similar legal challenges to fossil fuel production in other countries.

The court ruled that three petroleum production licenses, held by energy companies including Equinor and Aker BP, were invalid largely due to the lack of consideration that had been given to so-called “downstream emissions”. That is, emissions from burning the petroleum that these firms would extract from the North Sea (also called scope 3 emissions).

This case is a big win for environmental campaigners who have tried to make oil and gas companies account for the emissions that come from burning their products. Similar efforts have been defeated in legal challenges elsewhere over the last few years.

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Getting Them On Board: Partners and Avenues for European Engagement in Indo-Pacific Maritime Security

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

January 30, 2024 Download PDF

How should Europe strengthen its engagement with the Indo-Pacific? While the continent is highly dependent on trade from the region, it has limited capabilities to protect its interests in the face of growing Sino-American competition. This new HCSS report by Paul van Hooft, Benedetta Girardi and Alisa Hoenig examines how European states can engage in the Indo-Pacific by deepening cooperation with regional powers.

The Indo-Pacific comprises many actors, which are positioned along key chokepoints and share geopolitical and geoeconomic interests in protecting crucial sea lines of communication with Europe. This report does two things to establish pathways for deeper European engagement with Indo-Pacific states:

  • Based on relevance for maritime security and political affinity with European countries, it assesses the suitability of regional states as partners. Besides the usual suspects Australia, Japan and South Korea, it identifies an “inbetweener” group of countries, with whom cooperation can be fruitful but is not guaranteed, and states with whom engagement is unlikely to yield beneficial results.
  • It then zooms in on the “inbetweeners” to determine pathways for deepening ties. By comparing bilateral relations between different European and Indo-Pacific states along security, trade and investment, and capacity-building and infrastructure, the authors identify relative strengths and weaknesses of European states. Finally, they also contrast Europe’s involvement with that of China and the United States.

Based on the analysis, the report recommends to strengthen European collaboration with more ambivalent Indo-Pacific states, with a focus on trade and investment and capacity-building in the short- to medium-term.

This report is published by the HCSS Europe and the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH), and part of the series Guarding the Maritime Commons.

Authors: Benedetta Girardi, Paul van Hooft and Alisa Hoenig. Contributors: Giovanni Cisco.

The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Japanese trading giant Itochu to cut ties with Israeli defense firm over Gaza war

By Juliana Liu and Chie Kobayashi, CNN

Published 2:57 AM EST, Tue February 6, 2024

Itochu is one of Japan's biggest trading houses and is based in Tokyo.

Itochu is one of Japan’s biggest trading houses and is based in Tokyo. Toru Hanai/ReutersHong Kong/TokyoCNN — 

One of Japan’s biggest trading firms, Itochu, has decided to end its partnership with a major Israeli defense company due to the war in Gaza.

The sprawling conglomerate, best known outside Japan for its Family Mart chain of convenience stores, said its aviation unit will cut ties with Elbit Systems, which bills itself as Israel’s largest defense contractor, by the end of February.

The decision was made following a January ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) — the top court of the United Nations — and guidance given by Japan’s Foreign Ministry to observe the court’s findings in “good faith,” a spokesperson for Itochu told CNN on Tuesday.

Last month, the ICJ ordered Israel to prevent genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, but stopped short of calling for Israel to suspend its military campaign in the war-torn enclave, as South Africa, which had filed the case to the court, had requested.

The court said Israel must “take all measures” to limit the death and destruction caused by its military campaign, prevent and punish incitement to genocide and ensure access to humanitarian aid

Itochu’s announcement was first made Monday by Tsuyoshi Hachimura, the company’s chief financial officer, during an earnings presentation.

Itochu Aviation, Elbit Systems and Nippon Aircraft Supply signed a cooperation agreement in March 2023, months before war broke out between Israel and Gaza.

Itochu, which reported revenues of $104 billion in 2023, has faced small-scale, student-led protests in Tokyo against its partnership with Elbit since January. Its Family Mart chain has also been the target of calls for boycotts in Muslim-majority Malaysia over the agreement.

Hachimura sought to explain the deal on Monday, telling investors: “The partnership was based on a request from the Japan’s Defense Ministry for the purpose of importing defense equipment for the Self-Defense Force necessary for Japan’s security.”

During a November earnings call, Elbit CEO Bezhalel Machlis said the company had “ramped up production” to support the Israel Defense Forces, which uses its services “extensively.”

— CNN’s Hanako Montgomery and Heather Chen contributed reporting.

An Intense Global Demand for Climate-Related Relief

Council on Strategic Risk

A U.S. Army CH-47 Chinook helicopter assigned to the 25th Infantry Division delivers essential medical supplies and logistical equipment for the Lahaina National Guard Role I facility, supporting Maui County authorities to provide immediate security, safety, and well-being to those affected by the wildfires to ensure unwavering support for the community of Maui and first responders. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Abreanna Goodrich)

Since June 2022, MiRCH has identified military deployments for floods, storms, droughts, heat, wildfires, and other hazards on every continent, involving the armed services of 68 countries. With the growing severity and frequency of climate hazards, the scale of some MiRCH incidents have been immense, placing enormous pressure on defense forces to provide assistance. For instance, wildfires in Canada burned through a record high of more than 45 million acres in 2023 requiring the Canadian Armed Forces to engage in firefighting for over 100 days. Meanwhile, extreme precipitation and flooding in LibyaEast Africa, and elsewhere have displaced millions of people, resulting in the deployment of thousands of military personnel. 

The pace and breadth of climate hazards present additional challenges to militaries worldwide. MiRCH has recorded 10 countries where their armed services responded to more than one climate hazard in the same month. In December 2023, India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu was still recovering from the damage caused by Cyclone Michaung when intense rainfall later in the month led to severe flooding in the region again, prompting the Indian Armed Forces to amplify their recovery efforts. Additionally, although defense forces continue to widely perform more traditional disaster relief duties, such as providing logistical support, conducting search and rescue operations, evacuating affected areas, and delivering critical aid and supplies, they are also being deployed for missions beyond these roles. For example, the Swiss army has airlifted water to thousands of livestock during water shortages, the West Virginia National Guard conducted aerial firefighting for the first time, and Indonesia ordered the military to assist farmers in planting rice since drought has reduced production of the staple crop. 

Record high temperatures, combined with a strong El Niño event, contributed to unprecedented extreme weather events that required military responses in 2023, from the first Category-5 storm in recorded history to make landfall in the Mexican Pacific to Canada’s historic fire season. As global temperatures continue to rise, climate hazards are projected to further intensify, placing an even greater demand on armed services to provide relief in the future. In the near term, extreme weather events in the next few months could be particularly severe as the current El Niño is expected to continue at least until April.

High Demand Poses Readiness Questions for Militaries

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Climate Change Is Main Driver of Historic Amazon River Drought, Study Finds

earth.org

Climate Change Is Main Driver of Historic Amazon River Drought, Study Finds

The months-long drought – a 1 in 100 years event – has dried up large parts of the Amazon River, with water levels at their lowest in more than a century. 

Climate change is the main driver behind the exceptional drought that has been affecting the Amazon River since mid-2023, with the return of El Niño further exacerbating the situation, new research suggests.

A group of scientists from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group used published peer-reviewed methods to assess the role of climate change and El Niño in influencing the drought, which is affecting an estimated 30 million people that rely on the river for transport, food, and power. They found that climate change-driven high temperatures were the main driver of the historic drought – a 1 in 100 year event on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). On the other hand, the El Niño – a phenomenon that warms the Pacific Ocean and historically a driver of drought – had a “much smaller influence.”

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How the Belarus-Russia axis works together on anti-EU disinformation push

 euractive.com 26 Jan 2024 (updated:  26 Jan 2024)

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko attends the CSTO Collective Security Council meeting in Minsk, Belarus, 23 November 2023. [EPA-EFE/SERGY GUNEEV / KREMLIN / POOL]

 Belarusian propaganda positions the EU as its main enemy, but several other features make it a unique case among its European neighbours.

*The author of this text remains anonymous due to fear of repercussions in their home country.

The most important and, at the same time, the most destructive peculiarity of disinformation in Belarus is strong Russian influence, which has deep historical roots and covers various spheres, from economy and culture to the military sector.

However, nowadays, Russian propaganda is helped by Belarusian colleagues who work to follow the same narrative.

This narrative includes turning EU countries into an economically and politically unstable military threat in the eyes of Belarusians while ignoring benefits and positives.

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Canada’s oil sands spew massive amounts of unmonitored polluting gases

nature.com

Innovative aircraft-based technique records carbon emissions not tracked before from the industrial region

An aerial photo of the Athabasca oil sands operations, with tar and dirt exposed.
Researchers flew an aeroplane over the oil sands in Alberta, Canada, to measure all of their carbon-based emissions. Credit: John Liggio, Andrea Darlington and Andrew Elford

Canada’s controversial oil-producing tar sands generate a substantial amount of unaccounted-for carbon-based emissions that can affect air quality, according to measurements taken by aircraft. The sands release more of these pollution-causing gases than megacities such as Los Angeles, California, and about the same as the rest of Canada’s human-generated sources combined — including emissions from motor traffic and all other industries.

“No rules have been broken, or guidelines exceeded here,” says Janetta McKenzie, an oil and gas analyst for the Pembina Institute, a think tank in Calgary, Canada. “But that speaks to some issues in our rules and our guidelines.”How a dangerous stew of air pollution is choking the United States

The team that conducted the study — led by environmental engineer Drew Gentner at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut, and chemist John Liggio at the federal agency Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in Toronto — used an innovative approach to measure all the carbon-based molecules in the air over oil sands in the province of Alberta. The researchers factored out greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and instead tracked only molecules important to air quality, many of which haven’t been monitored at the oil sands before. These carbon-based gases can seed particulate pollution in the air and react with other chemicals to form ground-level ozone.

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Red Sea, Black Sea and Panama Canal: UNCTAD raises alarm on global trade disruptions

UNCTAD.org 26 January 2024

The organization warns that escalating attacks on ships in the Red Sea are adding strain to shipping routes already hit by conflict and climate change.

© Shutterstock/byvalet | A large container ship passes through the Suez canal.

The UN’s trade and development body, UNCTAD, has raised profound concerns over escalating disruptions to global trade.

It says that recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea, combined with geopolitical tensions affecting shipping in the Black Sea and the impacts of climate change on the Panama Canal, have given rise to a complex crisis affecting key trade routes.

UNCTAD’s head of trade logistics, Jan Hoffmann, outlined the organization’s detailed analysis of the situation at the UN’s daily press briefing on 26 January. He underlined maritime transport’s critical role in international trade, noting that it is responsible for approximately 80% of the global movement of goods.

Disruptions in the Black Sea and Panama and Suez Canals

The Suez Canal, a critical waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea, handled approximately 12% to 15% of global trade in 2023. UNCTAD estimates that the trade volume going through the Suez Canal decreased by 42% over the last two months.

Red Sea crisis: Suez Canal traffic plummets

Suez Danal, daily transits, 28-day rolling average, 2016–23 January 2024, Index, Average=100201620172018201920202021202220232024020406080100120140160180200

Total

Bulkcarriers

Containerships

Oil

 Tankers

Get the data  Download image

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has also triggered substantial shifts in oil and grain trades, reshaping established trade patterns.

Meanwhile, the Panama Canal, another key artery for global trade, is grappling with a severe drought that has diminished water levels, resulting in a staggering 36% reduction in total transits over the past month compared to a year ago.

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Gaza crisis: Babies being born ‘into hell’ amid desperate aid shortages

UN.news.org
Babies are fed at Al-Shifa hospital in northern Gaza. (file)
© UNICEF/Eyad El Baba Babies are fed at Al-Shifa hospital in northern Gaza. (file) Humanitarian Aid Babies are being “delivered into hell” in Gaza with many others likely dying as a result of conflict with Israel and increasingly dire conditions in the enclave, UN humanitarians warned on Friday. Reiterating urgent international calls for a ceasefire, the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF) reported that there have been nearly 20,000 births since the start of widespread Israeli bombardment in response to Hamas-led attacks in Israel that left some 1,200 dead and approximately 250 taken hostage. Chronic aid access problems have meant that Caesarean sections have been performed without anaesthetic while other women have been unable to deliver their stillborn babies because medical staff are overwhelmed, the UN agency said. Tiếp tục đọc “Gaza crisis: Babies being born ‘into hell’ amid desperate aid shortages”

‘Deadliest outbreak ever seen’: climate crisis fuels Bangladesh’s worst dengue epidemic

theguardian.com

Mosquito-borne disease once largely limited to Dhaka spreads countrywide as higher rainfall and heat lead to fivefold rise in cases in a year, with children the hardest hit

People lie on mattresses in a crowded corridor with drips on stands in the middle. Most of the people are children and women in colourful saris

Corridors in Dhaka Medical College hospital crowded with dengue patients amid a shortage of beds. Bangladesh’s worst outbreak of dengue on record comes after unusually heavy rain, torrid temperatures and high humidity led to an explosion in the mosquito population

 All photographs by Fabeha Monir for WHO

In a small, dimly lit control room at the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) in Dhaka, data on Bangladesh’s dengue outbreak flashes across multiple computer screens. Government analysts here have been busy collecting and monitoring the impact of the disease across the country since cases were first reported last April.

In 2023, the total reported cases of dengue numbered 321,179, with 1,705 deaths recorded, a massive jump from the year before, when 62,000 people were known to have had the virus, and 281 died. It was the highest number of annual deaths caused by the mosquito-transmitted disease ever recorded in Bangladesh.

We can’t afford to admit her to hospital so I’ve been doing whatever I can to protect her at home

Masuma Begum

The deaths last year included at least 113 children. According to Save the Children, the majority of these deaths were of children under the age of 10, with 38 deaths among those under five.

“Children make up around 30% of all dengue cases in Bangladesh and are particularly vulnerable to the virus because of underdeveloped immune systems,” says Dr Shamim Jahan, Bangladesh director of Save the Children. “Those under five are particularly at risk from developing severe symptoms, such as dehydration and shock.”

Over the past few months, the surge in cases has pushed Bangladesh’s health system to the limit, with hospital corridors overflowing with patients as wards run out of beds.

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