AMTI Brief – July 2, 2015
S&ED Analysis plus New Spratly Imagery
This week, AMTI has released exclusive new imagery of ongoing facility construction at Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands. With the conclusion of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue last week, AMTI has also released a video interview with CSIS Senior Adviser Bonnie Glaser explaining the significance and the takeaways from this meeting. Finally, AMTI has released updated sizes for all China’s reclaimed features.
China May Lose Friends in Southeast Asia
Several Southeast Asian countries have expressed concern over Beijing’s belligerent behavior and aggressive posturing in the South China Sea. A litany of complaints of harassment of innocent fishermen by Chinese Coast Guard vessels has been reported by Vietnam and the Philippines, who are visibly angry with China. These incidents have led to stand-offs between maritime security forces, shadowing and buzzing by aircraft, including obstruction of exploration ships and rigs. Issues such as freedom of navigation and the possibility of China announcing an ADIZ over the South China Sea have also unnerved regional countries. If these trends continue, these could potentially result in deterioration of relations between China and the Southeast Asian countries and Beijing may soon lose friends. [Read more from Vijay Sakhuja]
Sophistry and Bad Messaging in the South China Sea
Chinese authorities, as well as sympathetic writers, have in recent months sought to deflect criticism of China’s island-building campaign in the Spratlys by insisting that Beijing is merely copying what other claimants have done for years. According to this narrative, every claimant is as guilty as Beijing of altering the status of features in the South China Sea in contravention of international law and escalating tensions. But this narrative is false. Unfortunately, in one recent case, poorly chosen messaging from Washington has only strengthened it. [Read more from Greg Poling]
Vietnam and the Philippines: Spoke-to-Spoke Alliances in the South China Sea
As far as China’s designs in the South China Sea are concerned, there is little sign of compromise on the horizon. Not only has China openly declared its commitment to “active defense” of its interests in adjacent waters, and also dangled the option of imposing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the area, but also it is now only few steps away from concluding its massive construction activities in the Spratly chain of Islands. [Read more from Richard Javad Heydarian]
A Fair and Effective Code of Conduct for the South China Sea
In 2002, ASEAN and China signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) that promised to “enhance favourable conditions for a peaceful and durable solution of differences and disputes among countries concerned.” Unfortunately, thirteen years on, the claimant countries are no closer to a solution for any of the disputes, while coercive and other unilateral acts are steadily accumulating into serious tensions. What is needed now is a Code of Conduct (COC) that not only overcomes the DOC’s weaknesses but also addresses the new challenges that have arisen since 2002. [Read more from Huy Duong]
Philippine Navy and Japan’s Maritime Self Defense Forces in the South China Sea
For the first time since the Second World War, a Japanese naval reconnaissance plane landed on the western most Philippine island of Palawan to take part in a training exercise with the Philippine Navy (PN) from June 22 to June 26. On June 21, a Maritime Self-Defense Force (MDSF) P3-C Orion with 20 crew members from Kanoya Air Base in Kagoshima Prefecture arrived in the Philippines to take part in a training exercise that showed the increasing tempo of Philippine-Japan maritime security cooperation. According to the PN press release, the training activity focused on developing the fleet skills and the interoperability of the two countries’ navies in Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response (HA/DR) operations, particularly on search and rescue of stricken vessels or downed aircraft in the high seas. It involved one fixed wing maritime aircraft from the two navies and a PN patrol vessel. The exercise was conducted on the high seas, approximately140 kilometers northwest of Palawan. Officials from both countries emphasized that the training activity was primarily a disaster-relief and search-and rescue exercise, not a reconnaissance operation. Both sides acknowledged that this joint exercise also aimed to foster camaraderie and to strengthen the budding PN- MSDF maritime security partnership. [Read more from Renato Cruz de Castro]
Featured Imagery
Fiery Cross Reef – June 28, 2015
As of June 28, 2015, China is expanding the construction of its island facilities on Fiery Cross Reef. The construction of a 3,000 meter airstrip is nearly complete. China continues to pave and mark the airstrip and an apron and taxiway have been added adjacent to the runway. Prior photos showed that a small lake existed in the middle of the island; this has since been filled in. Personnel are now visible walking around the island.A sensor array has also been constructed and additional support facilities are being built. Meanwhile, a naval vessel is moored in the port. The size of the island is estimated at 2,740,000 square meters. The island has a partially-developed port with nine temporary loading piers. The harbor area is approximately 630,000 square meters. Two helipads, up to 10 satellite communications antennas, and one possible radar tower are also visible. Also visible are two lighthouses and one cement plant.
Johnson South Reef – June 10, 2015
South Johnson Reef was one of the first facilities to finish principal land reclamation. Since the seawalls have gone up, China has added a small port with limited berth space and two loading stations. A radar tower is nearing completion at the north end of the island with a probable radome staged nearby. A second radar tower and a probable weapons tower are under construction at the east end of the island. The harbor area is approximately 3,000 square meters with an entrance 125 meters wide. There are two helipads on the reef and up to three satellite communications antennas. A new large multi-level military facility has been built in the center of the island. Up to six security and surveillance towers are being built with four possible weapons towers also under construction. Agricultural facilities, a lighthouse, and a possible solar farm with 44 panels, in addition to two wind turbines, have been sighted.
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