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| March 8, 2023 | AMTI Brief (Almost) Everyone is Drilling Inside the Nine-Dash Line China’s military, law enforcement, and militia engaged in regular standoffs between 2018 and 2021 with Southeast Asian neighbors over oil and gas exploration inside Beijing’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea. By contrast, 2022 was comparatively quiet when it came to tensions over hydrocarbons, aside from one encounter involving the Philippines. But as several claimants forge ahead with new offshore projects in 2023, oil and gas development could reemerge as a primary flashpoint in the disputes. This feature details new exploration and development projects by claimants across the South China Sea. Many of the new projects lie in disputed waters, some at the sites of previous confrontations. With the China Coast Guard increasing the frequency of patrols across disputed waters, the prospect of confrontation between Chinese law enforcement and oil and gas operators at many of these locations is high.All of the projects detailed here and more are available to explore on AMTI’s newly updated map of Energy Exploration and Development in the South China Sea. Continue reading on CSIS website >> |
Thẻ: Biển Đông (SCS)
High Seas Treaty secured after marathon UN talks
‘This is a massive success for multilateralism,’ UN General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi says.
MARCH 5, 2023 9:49 AM CET
More than 100 countries reached agreement on a United Nations treaty to protect the high seas, following marathon talks at U.N. headquarters in New York that ended late Saturday.
The High Seas Treaty will put 30 percent of the planet’s seas into protected areas by 2030, aiming to safeguard marine life.
“This is a massive success for multilateralism. An example of the transformation our world needs and the people we serve demand,” U.N. General Assembly President Csaba Kőrösi tweeted after the U.N. conference president, Rena Lee, announced the agreement.
Tiếp tục đọc “High Seas Treaty secured after marathon UN talks”The world after Taiwan’s fall
Read full articles on Pacific Forum:
Part one >>
Part two >>
Excerpt:
The study’s main finding is that Taiwan’s fall would have devastating consequences for the United States and many countries in the region and beyond. Regardless of how it happens (without or despite US/allied intervention), Taiwan’s fall to the PRC would be earth shattering. The PRC could eclipse US power and influence in the region once and for all. Taiwan’s fall could lead to the advent of a Pax Sinica where Beijing and its allies would pursue their interests much more aggressively and with complete impunity. Nuclear proliferation in several parts of the Indo-Pacific could also be the net result of Taiwan’s fall, leading to much more dangerous regional and international security environments. To several authors, it would thus be necessary to build an Asian equivalent to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to prevent PRC adventurism and ultimately retake Taiwan.
Accordingly, the United States, its allies, and others should take major action—rapidly—to prevent such a development. In particular, the United States should lead an effort to strengthen collective deterrence and defense in the Indo-Pacific; this is especially important in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has shown territory takeovers still happen in the twenty-first century. The United States should also give serious consideration to establishing region-wide nuclear sharing arrangements; at a minimum, it should jumpstart research to examine the benefits, costs, and risks that such arrangements would bring to the Indo-Pacific security architecture, as well as assess the opportunities and challenges that such a development would present.
Read full articles on Pacific Forum:
Part one >>
Part two >>
Philippines files 10 protests against China in 2 months over South China Sea row
UPDATED 7:13 CH 27 THG 2, 2023 SGT
MANILA – The Philippines has filed 10 diplomatic protests against China over alleged “violations” in the South China Sea barely two months into 2023, underscoring renewed tensions between the two nations over the disputed waters.
These form part of the 77 diplomatic protests filed against China under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, the Philippines’ Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Monday.
Tiếp tục đọc “Philippines files 10 protests against China in 2 months over South China Sea row”Indonesia-Vietnam EEZ pact sends firm message to China
ASEAN members strike South China Sea deal that upholds UNCLOS and tacitly rejects China’s nine-dash line
asiatimes – By BICH TRAN – FEBRUARY 17, 2023
Vietnam and Indonesia agreed to delimit their respective Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) on 22 December 2022 after 12 years of negotiations. The agreement provides hope for the strengthening of the region’s commitment to international maritime norms and principles encapsulated in the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Tiếp tục đọc “Indonesia-Vietnam EEZ pact sends firm message to China”
Căn cứ mới của Mỹ ở Philippines: Không dễ ăn của ngoại…
SÁNG ÁNH 12/02/2023 09:22 GMT+7
TTCT – Dù là đồng minh có hiệp ước của nhau và vừa thắt chặt thêm tình hữu nghị về quân sự, quan hệ Mỹ – Philippines thật ra không phải lúc nào cũng bằng phẳng.
Khi tôi đến thăm Subic Bay năm 1998, khu chế xuất vừa hoạt động và hãng xưởng còn lưa thưa. Đây là khu miễn thuế, ra vào phải qua kiểm soát hải quan, chỗ mua sắm chỉ có vài hàng quán mới mở và loãng khách với một khu phức hợp và ba rạp phim.
Cả khu còn do quân đội Philippines quản lý, hoang vắng với những nhà kho tiền chế và bungalow quân đội Mỹ bỏ lại nằm bắt bụi từ 1992.
Tiếp tục đọc “Căn cứ mới của Mỹ ở Philippines: Không dễ ăn của ngoại…”
U.S.-China Strategic Competition in South and East China Seas: Background and Issues for Congress (Feb 8, 2023)
What does Japan’s military expansion mean for the region?
What does Japan’s military expansion mean for the region? | Inside Story
Al Jazeera English – 19 thg 12, 2022
Japan says the strategic challenge posed by China is the biggest it has ever faced.
Besides Beijing, Japan has two other nuclear-armed neighbours in North Korea and Russia.
It has expressed concerns about intensifying Russian military activity in its far east, even as Moscow presses on with its war against Ukraine.
And a North Korean missile flew over Japan in October. Tiếp tục đọc “What does Japan’s military expansion mean for the region?”
Flooding the zone: China Coast Guard patrols in 2022
PUBLISHED: JANUARY 30, 2023, AMTI
China’s coast guard presence in the South China Sea is more robust than ever. An analysis of automatic identification system (AIS) data from commercial provider MarineTraffic shows that the China Coast Guard (CCG) maintained near-daily patrols at key features across the South China Sea in 2022. Together with the ubiquitous presence of its maritime militia, China’s constant coast guard patrols show Beijing’s determination to assert control over the vast maritime zone within its claimed nine-dash line.
China Coast Guard Patrols in the South China Sea
2022
https://csis-ilab.github.io/amti-viz/coast-guard-timeline-2022/
AMTI analyzed AIS data from the year 2022 across the five features most frequented by Chinese patrols: Second Thomas Shoal, Luconia Shoals, Scarborough Shoal, Vanguard Bank, and Thitu Island. Comparison with data from 2020 shows that the number of calendar days that a CCG vessel patrolled near these features increased across the board.
The number of days the CCG patrolled at Vanguard Bank, a major site of Vietnamese oil and gas development that has seen standoffs between Chinese and Vietnamese law enforcement in years past, more than doubled, increasing from 142 days in 2020 to 310 days in 2022. Days patrolled at Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a precarious garrison aboard the BRP Sierra Madre, increased from 232 days to 279; those at Luconia Shoals, near important Malaysian oil and gas operations, from 279 to 316; and at Scarborough Shoal, traditionally fished and administered by the Philippines, from 287 to 344. Data on the reefs surrounding Philippine-held Thitu Island was not collected in previous analyses, but CCG vessels were on site 208 days over the past year. At some features, especially Scarborough Shoal, multiple CCG vessels were present simultaneously. Observed patrols across all five features amounted to 1,703 ship-days in total.
Tiếp tục đọc “Flooding the zone: China Coast Guard patrols in 2022”The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea
CMSI RED BOOKS
Scott Bentley , US Naval War College
Description
China now is attempting to expand its control to the southernmost extent of its nine-dash-line claim in the South China Sea, in waters ever closer to Indonesian and Malaysian shores. This area of the South China Sea, spanning from Indonesia’s Natuna Islands to the South Luconia Shoals, has greater strategic importance than the Spratly or Paracel Island chains farther to the north. Whereas the Spratlys have for centuries been regarded as “dangerous ground” and commercial mariners have avoided them, the vital sea lines of communication (SLOCs) connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans flow through this part of the southern South China Sea. Therefore, these areas are far more vital to international commerce and navigation than the dangerous grounds closer to China’s Spratly Islands outposts.
ISBN
978-1-935352-80-8
Publication Date
2023
Publisher
Naval War College Press
City
Newport, Rhode Island
Keywords
China Maritime Studies, China, South China Sea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Expansion
Recommended Citation
Bentley, Scott, “The Maritime Fulcrum of the Indo-Pacific: Indonesia and Malaysia Respond to China’s Creeping Expansion in the South China Sea” (2023). CMSI Red Books, Study No. 17.
VN bồi lấp một loạt 9 đảo ở Trường Sa, một năm tăng diện tích gấp 4 lần cả thập kỷ trước
VNYoutuber – 17-12-2022
Nghiên cứu của Tổ chức Sáng kiến minh bạch hàng hải châu Á gần đây cho thấy, chỉ trong năm 2022, Việt Nam đã bồi lấp mở rộng 9 điểm đảo ở quần đảo Trường Sa với tổng diện tích tăng thêm lên đến 170 hecta, gấp gần 4 lần diện tích đóng quân trong cả thập kỷ trước.
Philippines orders strengthened military presence after ‘Chinese activities’ near islands
Reuters – December 22, 20226:12 PM GMT+7
MANILA, Dec 22 (Reuters) – The Philippines’ defence ministry on Thursday ordered the military to strengthen its presence in the South China Sea after monitoring “Chinese activities” in disputed waters close to a strategic Philippine-held island.
The ministry did not specify what activities those were and its statement follows a report this week of Chinese construction on four uninhabited features in the disputed Spratly islands, news that Beijing has dismissed as “unfounded”.
Vietnam co-hosts seminar on UNCLOS’s outcomes
VNA Friday, December 09, 2022 11:19
Ambassador Dang Hoang Giang, Head of the Permanent Delegation of Vietnam to the United Nations (centre) at the event. (Photo: VNA)
Hanoi (VNA) – Vietnam, in coordination with Greece, Egypt and Senegal, on December 8 hosted a workshop on achievements and challenges since the adoption of the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) 40 years ago.
Main topics at the event were the outcomes of the convention, sea level rise and the relationship between UNCLOS and Sustainable Development Goal 14, which is to conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.
Tiếp tục đọc “Vietnam co-hosts seminar on UNCLOS’s outcomes”
It’s time to elevate partnership between Vietnam and Indonesia into a comprehensive strategic partnership – OpEd
Locations of Indonesia and Vietnam. Source: Wikipedia Commons.
eurasiareview – By Veeramalla Anjaiah
Vietnam’s President Nguyen Xuan Phuc will make a historic visit to Indonesia, a G20 member and de facto leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), from Dec. 21–23, 2022, to reshape strategic ties between the two countries. President Phuc will be accompanied by First Lady Tran Nguyet Thin, several senior officials, and a business delegation.
This will be Phuc’s first visit to Indonesia ever since becoming Vietnam’s president on April 5, 2021. His state visit marks a new milestone in the 67 years of bilateral relations between Vietnam and Indonesia.
South China Sea: Taiwan’s live-fire drills irked Vietnam. Was Beijing the real target?
- Taiwan’s recent military exercises near Taiping Island, which Vietnam claims, were ‘illegal’ and a ‘serious’ territorial violation, Hanoi fumed
- But observers say the drills were aimed more at Beijing, as Taipei fears its far-flung islands could be easy pickings for mainland China’s military
scmp – Published: 8:30am, 11 Dec, 2022‘
A Taiwanese patrol boat fires a ship-to-ship missile during a military drill in 2006. Vietnam slammed Taiwan’s recent live-fire exercises near Taiping Island as “illegal”. Photo: AFP
Vietnam was quick to voice its displeasure this month at Taiwanese military drills near a South China Sea island that both claim, but analysts say the incident speaks more to Taipei’s anxiety for its outlying islands’ continued security than the state of its relations with Hanoi.
CVD 
