Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 2)

China’s crude oil production has apparently peaked and is back to where it was at the beginning of 2010.

Fig 1: China’s crude oil production http://www.jodidb.org/

Vietnam has become a net oil importer:

Fig 2: Vietnam’s oil production and consumption

At the end of 2016 tensions in the South China Sea have been rising again

South China Sea: Vietnam prepares for dangerous days ahead as the country’s fisheries clash with Chinese authorities
9/12/2016
“The Chinese Coastguard stopped them near Woody Island. Officials boarded the boat and beat the crew using clubs and electric cattle prods.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-09/south-china-sea-vietnam-prepares-for-dangerous-days-ahead/8101192

2016 Gleanings

Earlier in the year China ramped up defences there.

South China Sea: China sends fighter jets to disputed Woody Island in ‘clear militarisation’ of area
24/2/2016
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-24/china-sends-fighter-jets-to-disputed-woody-island/7196786

The media are repeating again and again that the South China Sea is “resource rich”. Let’s check on this and sum up what happened around the Paracel islands in the last 2 years.

Fig 2:  Paracel islands with names in 3 languages
http://hoangsaparacels.blogspot.com.au/2016/02/ao-phu-lam.html

Woody Island is located 16º53’N and 112º17’E on the above map.

The following EIA map of 2013 shows that the Paracel islands are in an area with insignificant 2P oil and gas reserves.

Fig 3: Areas of 2P oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=10651

Fig 4: South China Sea oil and gas reserves 2013
https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=SCS

11 Gb are just 1/3 of the world’s annual oil consumption and 190 tcf gas are 2.9% of global gas reserves.


Fig 5: Undiscovered resources in Song Hong Basin (USGS 2010)
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2010/3015/pdf/FS10-3015.pdf

204 mb of undiscovered oil resources are also not much, 3 days of global consumption.

We look at some of the oil and gas exploration blocks near the Paracel islands


Fig 6: Location of Woody island in Paracel islands and various drilling rig HD 981 sites

  • Woody island is appr. 295 km South East of the Chinese island of Hainan and 405 kms North East of Quang Ngai in Vietnam.
  • Tri Ton island, around 190 km South West of Woody Island and 245 km from the Vietnamese coast.

Fig 6 shows 3 selected locations of the Chinese drilling rig HD 981 in 2014-16

Fig 7: Haiyang Shiyou 981 drilling rig

1) May-July 2014 at 15°29’58.0″N 111°12’06.05″E; 2 exploratory wells drilled

Rig HD 981 was withdrawn one month earlier than originally announced, officially because works had been completed. It was reasoned that
• no hydrocarbons were found
• anti-Chinese protests in Vietnam and other South East Asian countries were too high a price
• the rig was withdrawn as typhoon Rammasun was approaching
• there were fears Vietnam would align itself with the US
http://thediplomat.com/2014/07/4-reasons-china-removed-oil-rig-hysy-981-sooner-than-planned/

2) June 2015 at 17°03’0.75″N 109°59’05″E

China’s planting oil rig in East Sea breaks Vietnam-China commitment: ex-official
27/6/2015
http://tuoitrenews.vn/politics/28942/chinas-planting-of-rig-in-east-sea-breaks-vietnamchina-commitment-exofficial

3) January 2016 at 17°29’53.0″N 110°57’18.0″E

Vietnam ‘keeps an eye’ on Chinese oil rig
25/12/2015
http://www.thanhniennews.com/politics/vietnam-keeps-an-eye-on-chinese-oil-rig-57536.html

This is part of an exploration effort in the Qiongdongnan basin shown on this map:


Fig 8: Exploration areas South of China
http://subseaworldnews.com/2014/03/19/cnooc-discovers-gas-in-qiongdongnan-basin/

Note that in the Gulf of Tonkin there is a boundary agreement:

Fig 9: Uncontested part of the Song Hong basin

http://3scsd23qbzvh2huoxy4223ti.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/territory_prc_vn.jpg

So where are the contested oil and gas blocks nearest to the Paracel islands?  Vietnamese exploration block 142 surrounds Tri Ton island and block 143 sits South to it. In 2014, Rig HD 981 was drilling right in the middle of these 2 blocks as shown in Fig 7.

International Military Forums wrote in 2014:

“China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs appears to be basing its case on the assumption that Triton Island, 17 miles to the north of HD-981, or another of the Paracels meets the UNCLOS habitability requirement for generating its own continental shelf. If that were assumed to be true, then HD-981 would indeed fall within the maximum hypothetical area of dispute generated by the Paracels, shown in red below. This is the maximum dispute because it gives the tiny Paracel Islands equal weight in delimitation with the entire Vietnamese coast facing them.”

Fig 10: Oil and gas blocks South West of Paracel islands
http://www.military-quotes.com/forum/how-say-drill-baby-drill-t109068.html

Note that blocks 118/119 (Exxon Mobil) seem to be outside the Paracel legal dispute but eastern parts cross the dash line claim. This will be a topic in the next post.

Conclusion:

On a global scale and based on current knowledge, the area around the Paracel islands does not seem to be of great relevance for the world’s oil and gas production. Insofar the media give a wrong impression. But for Vietnam it is important as its offshore blocks lie in the only area where more oil and gas can be found.

Related posts:

29/2/2016
Peak oil in the South China Sea (part 1)
http://crudeoilpeak.info/peak-oil-in-the-south-china-sea-part-1

12/5/2014
10 years after peak oil in Vietnam: Asian Century sails into troubled waters in the South China Sea
http://crudeoilpeak.info/10-years-after-peak-oil-in-vietnam-asian-century-sails-into-troubled-waters-in-the-south-china-sea

18/6/2013
South East Asian oil producers – the widening gap between oil production and consumption
http://crudeoilpeak.info/south-east-asian-oil-producers-the-widening-gap-between-oil-production-and-consumption

10/9/2012
South East Asian oil peak in the rear view mirror
http://crudeoilpeak.info/south-east-asian-oil-peak-in-the-rear-view-mirror-part-1

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This entry was posted in An ninh năng lượng và địa chính trị - Energy security and geopolitics, Biển Đông (SCS), China, Môi trường - Environment, Năng lượng - Energy, Năng lượng hóa thạch - fossil energy, Paracels, VN and tagged , , , , , , by Trần Đình Hoành. Bookmark the permalink.

About Trần Đình Hoành

I am an attorney in the Washington DC area, with a Doctor of Law in the US, attended the master program at the National School of Administration of Việt Nam, and graduated from Sài Gòn University Law School. I aso studied philosophy at the School of Letters in Sài Gòn. I have worked as an anti-trust attorney for Federal Trade Commission and a litigator for a fortune-100 telecom company in Washington DC. I have taught law courses for legal professionals in Việt Nam and still counsel VN government agencies on legal matters. I have founded and managed businesses for me and my family, both law and non-law. I have published many articles on national newspapers and radio stations in Việt Nam. In 1989 I was one of the founding members of US-VN Trade Council, working to re-establish US-VN relationship. Since the early 90's, I have established and managed VNFORUM and VNBIZ forum on VN-related matters; these forums are the subject of a PhD thesis by Dr. Caroline Valverde at UC-Berkeley and her book Transnationalizing Viet Nam. I translate poetry and my translation of "A Request at Đồng Lộc Cemetery" is now engraved on a stone memorial at Đồng Lộc National Shrine in VN. I study and teach the Bible and Buddhism. In 2009 I founded and still manage dotchuoinon.com on positive thinking and two other blogs on Buddhism. In 2015 a group of friends and I founded website CVD - Conversations on Vietnam Development (cvdvn.net). I study the art of leadership with many friends who are religious, business and government leaders from many countries. In October 2011 Phu Nu Publishing House in Hanoi published my book "Positive Thinking to Change Your Life", in Vietnamese (TƯ DUY TÍCH CỰC Thay Đổi Cuộc Sống). In December 2013 Phu Nu Publishing House published my book "10 Core Values for Success". I practice Jiu Jitsu and Tai Chi for health, and play guitar as a hobby, usually accompanying my wife Trần Lê Túy Phượng, aka singer Linh Phượng.

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