Moody’s and SP affirms Việt Nam’s sovereign rating

Môvietnamnews

Update: April, 30/2017 – 12:47

Moody’s has affirmed Viet Nam’s credit rating with positive outlook. – Photo customsnews.vn

HÀ NỘI – Two major credit rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s (S&P), on Friday affirmed Việt Nam’s sovereign rating, citing the country’s strong foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, macroeconomic and external stability and modest external debt burden.

Moody’s affirmed the Government of Việt Nam’s B1 issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings, while it raised the outlook to positive from stable.

Moody’s B1 rating, four steps below investment grade, is considered relatively stable, with a moderate chance of default.

The company also raised its assessment of Việt Nam’s local-currency bond to Baa3 from Ba1, while the foreign currency bond remained at Ba2.

The positive outlook for Việt Nam is based on three key drivers, including strong FDI inflows, boosted by ongoing economic reform and liberalisation; macroeconomic and external stability; and the stabilization of prospective debt and an improved funding profile.

Moody’s noted that robust FDI inflows will continue to sustain Việt Nam’s dynamic economic performance relative to similar-rated peers, as it allows Việt Nam to diversify its economy and gain market share in international trade.

Việt Nam has seen significant improvements in the investment climate. Its ranking rose to 60th out of 138 countries in the 2016-2017 World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index, up from 70th in 2013-14, while its showings in the World Bank’s Doing Business Indicators similarly rose to 82nd out of 190 countries in 2017, and from 99th in 2014.

Further, Việt Nam has become a more important node in the regional supply chain for electronics, especially for mobile phones, as foreign investments have helped to diversify the economy towards higher value-added manufacturing. Its market share nearly doubled to 1.2 per cent of world exports in 2016, from 0.7 per cent in 2013.

Moody’s expected the country’s economic growth to remain robust at around 6.3 per cent per annum through 2019.

S&P Global Ratings on Friday also affirmed Việt Nam’s long-term ‘BB-’ credit ratings and short-term ‘B’ credit ratings with a stable outlook.

The ratings have reflected the country’s lower middle-income, banking sector weakness, and emerging institutional settings that hamper the responsiveness of policy.

“These weaknesses are offset by Việt Nam’s external settings that feature balanced external accounts, strong foreign direct investment inflows and a modest external debt burden,” S&P said in a press release.

The rating company said financial and technical assistance that Việt Nam has received from donors also contributed to the rating.

Its stable outlook reflected the company’s expectation that Việt Nam’s growth prospects will continue to improve, leading to gains in its key economic and fiscal measures, it said.

However, it has cautioned that the large fiscal deficit and rising debt burden, with net general government debt at 46.6 per cent of GDP in 2016, signal a further delay in fiscal consolidation. S&P estimates that the fiscal deficits will average 4.9 per cent of GDP over 2017-20, down from an average 6.4 per cent over 2012-16.– VNS

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This entry was posted in Economics - Kinh tế and tagged , , by Trần Đình Hoành. Bookmark the permalink.

About Trần Đình Hoành

I am an attorney in the Washington DC area, with a Doctor of Law in the US, attended the master program at the National School of Administration of Việt Nam, and graduated from Sài Gòn University Law School. I aso studied philosophy at the School of Letters in Sài Gòn. I have worked as an anti-trust attorney for Federal Trade Commission and a litigator for a fortune-100 telecom company in Washington DC. I have taught law courses for legal professionals in Việt Nam and still counsel VN government agencies on legal matters. I have founded and managed businesses for me and my family, both law and non-law. I have published many articles on national newspapers and radio stations in Việt Nam. In 1989 I was one of the founding members of US-VN Trade Council, working to re-establish US-VN relationship. Since the early 90's, I have established and managed VNFORUM and VNBIZ forum on VN-related matters; these forums are the subject of a PhD thesis by Dr. Caroline Valverde at UC-Berkeley and her book Transnationalizing Viet Nam. I translate poetry and my translation of "A Request at Đồng Lộc Cemetery" is now engraved on a stone memorial at Đồng Lộc National Shrine in VN. I study and teach the Bible and Buddhism. In 2009 I founded and still manage dotchuoinon.com on positive thinking and two other blogs on Buddhism. In 2015 a group of friends and I founded website CVD - Conversations on Vietnam Development (cvdvn.net). I study the art of leadership with many friends who are religious, business and government leaders from many countries. In October 2011 Phu Nu Publishing House in Hanoi published my book "Positive Thinking to Change Your Life", in Vietnamese (TƯ DUY TÍCH CỰC Thay Đổi Cuộc Sống). In December 2013 Phu Nu Publishing House published my book "10 Core Values for Success". I practice Jiu Jitsu and Tai Chi for health, and play guitar as a hobby, usually accompanying my wife Trần Lê Túy Phượng, aka singer Linh Phượng.

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