Director of the Import/Export Department Nguyen Phu Hoa said at a export forum held in early August that Vietnam is likely to obtain export turnover of $200 billion this year, an increase of 13 percent over last year.
He emphasized that exports to countries with which Vietnam has FTAs have been increasing, which shows that Vietnam can exploit opportunities from the agreements. However, he said big difficulties are ahead for Vietnam’s exports as the global economy has been witnessing big changes.
In the face of Brexit, European countries are expected to reinforce technical barriers against imports to protect domestic production and investment in countries with dissimilar development levels.
US President Trump has rejected TPP and shown his clear view on domestic production protection. Therefore, analysts have every reason to believe the US will set up technical barriers to prevent imports. The Farm Bill has been cited as a typical example.
China is now focusing on developing its domestic market and following strategies to compete with Japan, South Korea and the US in quality and productivity. The country has been trying to organize production to satisfy its domestic needs. It has been growing dragon fruit on a large scale, for example, to reduce imports from Vietnam.
Meanwhile, more robots are working together with people in Japan.
Under the conditions of the fourth industrial revolution, relying on FDI and a cheap labor force will ultimately fail.
Hoa warned that these changes would pose high risks for Vietnam. He said it is time to reconsider the export quality because the first export wave had reached a critical point.
Yuichiro Shiotani, CEO of Topvalu Japan, said Vietnam needs to make original high-quality products to create high value instead of competing with high output.
However, this is a weak point of Vietnam. Japan spends $600 million a year to import garments and consumer goods every year, but imports from Vietnam are worth only $28 million and are from 50 suppliers. Meanwhile, the figures are $400 million and 430 suppliers for China.
Experts agree that Vietnam needs to create a second export wave with focus on increasing added value and improving Vietnamese brands.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Do Thang Hai said at an event held in Hanoi some days ago that the exports of garments, footwear and wooden products will enjoy substantial increase in the second half of the year. The country’s trade deficit is estimated at US$5 billion, or 2.5 percent of the export turnover and lower than the National Assembly’s goal.RELATED NEWS