Forecasting the world in 2020

Brexit was not stopped, populists made smaller gains than expected in May’s European parliament elections, and the S&P 500 beat our — and most other people’s — expectations. Along with Brazilian growth falling below the year before, the FT’s forecasting team got those predictions wrong for 2019, though Philip Stephens last year admitted he offered his forecast that Brexit would be reversed “as much in hope as expectation”.

Though the world may seem ever more unpredictable, four wrong answers was an improvement on our dismal eight the year before. And aside from Brexit, readers in our annual competition generally made the same mistakes we did — more than 70 per cent of you got the same three questions wrong. For a third straight year, though, the top-scoring readers beat the FT. Three tied on 19 correct answers out of 20. Tiếp tục đọc “Forecasting the world in 2020”

Southeast Asia in 2020: Issues to Watch, Part 1

January 14, 2020

In this two-part series, Dr. Amy Searight, senior adviser and director of the CSIS Southeast Asia Program, previews five key issues to watch in Southeast Asia in 2020. This installment addresses U.S.-ASEAN relations, climate change and the imperiled Mekong, and domestic politics. The next installment will cover economic trends and developments in the digital space.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-ASEAN Relations?

Disappointingly, 2019 was a pretty bad year for U.S.-ASEAN relations. Trump had a promising start in his first year in office, hosting four Southeast Asian leaders in the White House, traveling to Vietnam and the Philippines to unveil his “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” vision, and holding a U.S.-ASEAN summit. But Trump’s interest in Southeast Asia has since appeared to wane considerably. Although Trump traveled to Vietnam in February for a second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, he later called Vietnam the “single worst abuser” in trade relations with the United States. In November, President Trump skipped the East Asian Summit (EAS) for the third straight year, sending National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien instead. Trump’s absence in Bangkok and the historically low level of diplomatic representation at the summit ruffled a lot of feathers within ASEAN and led most of the Southeast Asian leaders to snub the U.S.-ASEAN summit held on the sidelines of the EAS (only Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos attended at the leader level). ASEAN’s disenchantment with the level of U.S. engagement came just as China was gaining new traction in the region, with a revamped Belt and Road Initiative that appeared to address regional concerns and progress toward launching the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a trade agreement between ASEAN, China, and four other regional trade partners.
Tiếp tục đọc “Southeast Asia in 2020: Issues to Watch, Part 1”

Children to bear the burden of negative health effects from climate change 

Date: January 27, 2020

Source: University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston

Summary: The grim effects that climate change will have on pediatric health outcomes was the focus of a recent article.Share:

The grim effects that climate change will have on pediatric health outcomes was the focus of a “Viewpoint” article published in the Journal of Clinical Investigation by Susan E. Pacheco, MD, an expert at The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (UTHealth).

Pacheco, an associate professor of pediatrics at McGovern Medical School at UTHealth, along with professors from Johns Hopkins Medicine and the George Washington University, authored a series of articles that detail how increased temperatures due to climate change will negatively affect the health of humanity. In the article authored by Pacheco, she shines a light on the startling effects the crisis has on children’s health before they are even born. Tiếp tục đọc “Children to bear the burden of negative health effects from climate change”