13 March 2026, London: Military tensions in West Asia are beginning to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising serious concerns for global energy markets, fertilizer supplies and vulnerable economies. In a rapid assessment titled “Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Implications for global trade and development,” UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has highlighted the potential risks posed by interruptions in one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.
The Strait of Hormuz carries nearly one quarter of global seaborne oil trade, along with large volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertilizers. Any disruption in this narrow passage therefore has immediate consequences for global energy prices, maritime transport costs and agricultural input supply chains.
According to the UN Trade and Development analysis, military escalation in the region has already begun affecting shipping flows. The report warns that if disruptions persist, they could trigger wider ripple effects across global trade, logistics networks and agricultural markets.
Key findings from UN Trade and Development analysis
• Energy markets reacted immediately, with Brent crude oil prices climbing above $90 per barrel following the escalation.
• Shipping costs are rising, as freight rates for oil tankers increase and war-risk insurance premiums surge, while higher marine fuel prices further add to transport costs across supply chains.
• Fertilizer trade faces potential risks, as roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer shipments, around 16 million tonnes move through the Strait, creating concerns about fertilizer availability in import-dependent countries.
• Developing economies are particularly vulnerable, since many already face high debt burdens and rising borrowing costs, limiting their ability to absorb sudden spikes in energy and fertilizer prices.
• Past global crises have shown similar ripple effects, with disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war demonstrating how shocks to energy, transport and agricultural inputs can quickly spread across interconnected global markets.
The report from UN Trade and Development mentioned that continued monitoring of the situation is critical, as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could influence energy prices, fertilizer availability and trade stability, particularly for developing countries heavily dependent on import
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