Council on Foreign Relations – Daily news brief Sept. 21, 2022

Top of the Agenda

Putin Escalates Russian War Efforts With New Troop Mobilization ”

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a new mobilization of troops (FT) to fight in Ukraine in a televised address today. Three hundred thousand reservists will be called up to fight, Russia’s defense minister said. Putin also hinted at his willingness to use nuclear weapons, saying Russia “will use all the means at its disposal” if its territorial integrity is threatened. 

In addition, Putin voiced support for referendums that would let Russia illegally annex four occupied regions of Ukraine. The votes could happen as soon as this weekend. Yesterday, the Russian parliament increased penalties (RFE/RL) for soldiers who surrender or refuse to fight and used the words “mobilization” and “martial law” to describe the conflict in Ukraine for the first time. 
Analysis

“Mobilization…would radically upset the Kremlin’s careful management of the war at home. Dramatically increasing Russia’s manpower might seem a logical choice for a country with a population that is three times the size of Ukraine’s, but the war’s popularity has depended on it being far away,” the German Marshall Fund of the United States’ Liana Fix and Michael Kimmage write for Foreign Affairs. 

“If the Kremlin’s annexation gambit fails to stop the fighting and support to Ukraine, the Kremlin will need to lash out to show it is serious. That means escalation that could come in different forms,” the RAND Corporation’s Dara Massicot tweets. 
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Europe turns on China

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian
Illustration of the EU stars arranged as a no sign over a map of China.

Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Illustration of the EU stars arranged as a no sign over a map of China.
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Once skeptical of America’s increasingly hostile stance toward China, the EU and its member states are adopting a cascade of new measures that bring their policies closer in line with those of the United States.

Why it matters: Beijing’s push for Europe to adopt “strategic autonomy” from the United States — in the hope the EU would maintain warmer ties with China — now looks like a moot point.

What’s happening: Last week, the European Commission unveiled a proposed ban on products made with forced labor, after intense pressure from lawmakers and human rights activists concerned about forced labor in Xinjiang.

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China to Latin America: All your fish belong to us

The Manila Times

The Manila Times

Opinion by Ben Kritz – Monday

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AS if communist China was not already doing enough to degrade the rest of the world’s quality of life for its own gain, recent news from South and Central America further reinforces the impression that its rapaciousness knows no bounds. China’s Southeast Asian neighbors, particularly the Philippines, are already familiar with the Red Menace’s greediness when it comes to marine resources, but on the other side of the world, a massive, well-organized, industrial-scale effort to carry out illegal fishing on both sides of Latin America is threatening to wipe out fish stocks for a dozen countries.

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Council on Foreign Relations -Daily news brief Sept. 20, 2022

Image
Top of the Agenda

UN General Assembly Weighs ‘Interconnected Crises’

World leaders begin their annual addresses (NYT) to the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in New York today amid what the United Nations has described (Al Jazeera) as time of “complex and interconnected crises.” This year’s session will focus on the war in Ukraine and climate change. In addition, Western governments are expected to urge Iran to commit to rejoining the 2015 nuclear deal. The leaders of China, India, Ethiopia, and Russia will not attend. U.S. President Joe Biden will speak tomorrow. 

The United States, African Union, and European Union (EU) will hold a conference today to discuss food insecurity and rising prices. On Thursday, the UN Security Council is due to hold a session on the topic of Ukraine and impunity. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said last week that he doesn’t expect dialogue (NPR) between Russian and Ukrainian delegations.
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Surveying the Experts: China’s Approach to Taiwan

Surveying the Experts: China’s Approach to Taiwan, CSIS

As China’s recent unprecedented military exercises around Taiwan demonstrated, the Taiwan Strait is a major flashpoint that threatens to undermine regional and global stability. Yet crucial questions remain about the dynamics shaping the Taiwan Strait. What is China’s approach to Taiwan and how long is Beijing willing to wait for Taiwan’s unification? Will China use significant military force against Taiwan, and when? How does Beijing view the potential of U.S. intervention in a Taiwan contingency?

To shed light on these questions, ChinaPower polled 64 leading experts on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan, and cross-Strait relations.1 The experts polled include 28 former high-level U.S. government (USG) officials from both Democrat and Republican administrations, as well as 23 former USG policy and intelligence analysts and 13 top experts from academia and think tanks.2 Responses were collected from August 10–September 8, 2022, amid the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

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Council on Foreign Relations: Daily news brief Sept. 19, 2022

Top of the Agenda

Biden Again Says U.S. Military Would Defend Taiwan

In an interview with 60 Minutes that aired yesterday, U.S. President Joe Biden said that if China were to invade Taiwan, U.S. military forces would come to the island’s defense. It is at least the fourth time (NBC) that Biden has publicly made comments appearing to contradict the U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan, though the White House later said U.S. policy has not changed. The long-standing policy deliberately leaves unanswered the question of whether the United States would defend the island.  China’s foreign ministry said it lodged a complaint (Reuters) with the United States. A ministry spokesperson said Beijing “will not tolerate any activities aimed at [Taiwan’s] secession.”
Tiếp tục đọc “Council on Foreign Relations: Daily news brief Sept. 19, 2022”

China lodges complaint as U.S. Senate panel advances Taiwan bill

Reuters

Honour guards lower the Taiwan flag during sunset hours at Liberty Square in Taipei,

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Honour guards lower the Taiwan flag during sunset hours at Liberty Square in Taipei, Taiwan, July 28, 2022. REUTERS/Ann Wang/File Photo

BEIJING, Sept 15 (Reuters) – China said on Thursday that it had lodged “solemn representations” with the United States, after a U.S. Senate panel advanced legislation that would enhance U.S. military support for Taiwan.

If the bill continues to go forward, it would affect U.S.-China relations, Mao Ning, a foreign ministry spokesperson, said at a regular media briefing.

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How the autocrats steal elections

16/09/2022: Transparency International On Wednesday, news broke that the Russian government may have spent as much as US$300 million since 2014 on influencing elections and buying political influence abroad. Reportedly, some of the countries affected include Albania, Montenegro, Madagascar, possibly Ecuador and an unnamed country in Asia.

Image: Christopher Penler / ShutterstockThat same day, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen highlighted “covert foreign influence and shady funding” by authoritarian regimes as a threat to democracy, specifically calling out China.

Most countries recognise the threat of foreign political finance. In fact, 70 per cent of countries around the world ban foreign-sponsored campaign donations. To wiggle around this ban and to disguise the origin of money, China and Russia have abused the global financial system’s loopholes – including anonymous shell companies. According to a 2020 study by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, both countries have increasingly relied on such means to sway elections and interfere in other democratic processes.
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Council on Foreign Relations – Daily news brief Sept. 14, 2022

Top of the Agenda

EU’s Von der Leyen Proposes Energy Market Reforms to Address High CostsIn her annual state of the union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged sweeping efforts (Politico) to reduce energy prices that have soared amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. The proposed plan, which requires approval from European Union (EU) member states, includes new taxes on energy companies and “comprehensive reform” of the EU’s electricity market.
Von der Leyen said she aims for the taxes on energy firms to raise $140 billion (Reuters) for European governments to disburse to citizens. She also pledged to work to ensure that Ukraine has “seamless access” to the EU’s single market. European leaders are scheduled to discuss the proposals at the end of the month. 
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Myanmar: Increasing evidence of crimes against humanity since coup

Protesters attend a march against the military coup in Myanmar.

(Unsplash/Pyae Sone Htun) Protesters attend a march against the military coup in Myanmar.

12 September 2022 United Nations News

Human Rights

Crimes against humanity and war crimes have intensified in the wake of the February 2021 military coup in Myanmar, the UN Human Rights Council heard on Monday. 

The Geneva-based body was briefed by Nicholas Koumjian, Head of the Independent Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar (IIMM), who presented its latest report. 

The Mechanism was established by the Council to collect and preserve evidence of the most serious international crimes in the country. 

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Council on Foreign Relations: Daily news brief Sept. 12, 2022

Top of the Agenda

Ukrainian Forces Make Sweeping Gains in Country’s Northeast

Ukraine’s military has recaptured (FT) 3,000 square kilometers (1,158 square miles) of Russia-held territories in the Kharkiv region this month following a weekend blitz. The new counteroffensive struck the military’s strongest blow to Russian forces since repelling them from Kyiv in March. Russia’s defense ministry acknowledged the losses (BBC) of several cities in the region. Kyiv warned of Russian retaliation, and Russian air strikes hit Ukraine’s second-largest thermal power plant last night.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the advances demonstrated the effect of Western military support in the war. Separately, the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant was shut down (AP) yesterday to avoid the risk of a nuclear disaster.
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Vietnam encourages diaspora to embrace language and culture in ‘soft power’ push

.Officials have declared September 8 as a day to celebrate the Vietnamese language, amid fears it is ‘at risk of fading’ in communities around the world, from Cambodia to France and the USAs.

.Some overseas-born Vietnamese have grown up shunning the language and culture, ‘what’s at stake is the communication between generations’, a researcher says

Sen Nguyen, Spet. 10,2022, SCMP

People walk under Vietnamese national flags at an alley in Hanoi. Photo: EPA-EFE

People walk under Vietnamese national flags at an alley in Hanoi. Photo: EPA-EFE

When Dannie Doan moved to the United States at age 13 with her family, she refrained from speaking in her native language even though Texas had a large Vietnamese community.

Newly-arrived immigrants felt intense pressure to assimilate and learn “perfect English”, she said.

“There’s also a layer of discrimination if you speak a foreign language in public,” added Doan, who is now 31 and works as a climate adaptation professional. “Those incidents of white people yelling ‘Speak English’ isn’t that uncommon.”

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China’s power crisis adds to headaches ahead of the 20th Party Congress

Wendy Wu, SCMP <wendy.wu@e.scmp.com> Unsubscribe   Was this newsletter forwarded to you? Sign up here First China’s zero-Covid policy, then property woes, now a power crisis tests Beijing ahead of key event Andrew MullenDeputy Editor, Political Economy  10 September 2022 Welcome to our 869 newly joined SCMP Global Impact readers who signed up in the past week. Dear Global Impact Readers, The adage goes “with great power comes great responsibility”, but who is responsible when the great power needed to light up and drive the world’s most populous nation runs out? At the moment, Mother Nature is the main suspect behind China’s second power crisis in less than a year, having hit the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan in July and August after drought wreaked havoc on the hydropower-reliant region. In this issue, Wendy Wu, the Post’s economy editor, looks back at the latest crisis and asks what is next for China as it seeks energy security. In other news, we will be taking a break from our regular schedule in the coming weeks as China’s 20th party congress looms into view. Given the magnitude of the five-yearly event where major leadership changes are announced, and where Xi Jinping is expected this year to secure a third term as party’s leader, we will be focusing the coming issues on the key event that gets under way in Beijing from October 16. As the Post always looks to provide our readers with a window into China, given the 20th party congress will take up so much of the view over the next couple of months, we felt it only right we devote our flagship newsletter to such a key event to bring the latest news and analysis from our team of reporters in China and around the world straight into your inbox each week. Andrew Mullen Deputy Editor, Political Economy

Challenges ahead for China

When the Baihetan Dam, the world’s second-largest hydropower plant, located in the southwestern Chinese province of Sichuan, became fully operational in July and began sending electricity more than 2,000km across China – eastward to Jiangsu province via a newly established ultra-high-voltage grid – few could have foreseen that a drought-induced power crisis was looming on the horizon. Tiếp tục đọc “China’s power crisis adds to headaches ahead of the 20th Party Congress”

ICJ: Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation) – Declarations of Intervention by United States and Sweden

INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
Peace Palace, Carnegieplein 2, 2517 KJ The Hague, Netherlands
Tel.: +31 (0)70 302 2323 Fax: +31 (0)70 364 9928

Press Release
Unofficial
No. 2022/33
8 September 2022
Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment
of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation)


The United States of America files a declaration of intervention in the
proceedings under Article 63 of the Statute

THE HAGUE, 8 September 2022. Yesterday, the United States of America, invoking Article 63 of the Statute of the Court, filed in the Registry of the Court a declaration of intervention in the case concerning Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation).


Pursuant to Article 63 of the Statute, whenever the construction of a convention to which States other than those concerned in the case are parties is in question, each of these States has the right to intervene in the proceedings. In this case, the construction given by the judgment of the Court will be equally binding upon them.


To avail itself of the right of intervention conferred by Article 63 of the Statute, the United States relies on its status as a party to the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (the “Genocide Convention”). In its declaration of intervention, the United States emphasizes that “all States Parties have a significant interest in ensuring the correct interpretation, application, or fulfilment of the Genocide Convention”, adding that its “views on the questions at issue in this case are further informed by the United States’ long history of supporting efforts to
prevent and punish genocide”.


In accordance with Article 83 of the Rules of Court, Ukraine and the Russian Federation have been invited to furnish written observations on the United States’ declaration of intervention. The United States’ declaration of intervention will be available on the Court’s website shortly.


  • 2 – History of the proceedings
    The history of the proceedings can be found in press releases Nos. 2022/4, 2022/6, 2022/7,
    2022/11, 2022/25, 2022/26, 2022/27, 2022/28, 2022/29 and 2022/31, available on the Court’s
    website.

Note: The Court’s press releases are prepared by its Registry for information purposes only
and do not constitute official documents.


The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations.
It was established by the United Nations Charter in June 1945 and began its activities in April 1946.
The Court is composed of 15 judges elected for a nine-year term by the General Assembly and the
Security Council of the United Nations. The seat of the Court is at the Peace Palace in The Hague
(Netherlands). The Court has a twofold role: first, to settle, in accordance with international law,
through judgments which have binding force and are without appeal for the parties concerned, legal
disputes submitted to it by States; and, second, to give advisory opinions on legal questions referred
to it by duly authorized United Nations organs and agencies of the system.


Information Department:
Mr. Andrey Poskakukhin, First Secretary of the Court, Head of Department (+31 (0)70 302 2336)
Ms Joanne Moore, Information Officer (+31 (0)70 302 2337)
Mr. Avo Sevag Garabet, Associate Information Officer (+31 (0)70 302 2394)
Ms Genoveva Madurga, Administrative Assistant (+31 (0)70 302 2396)

___________________

INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE
Peace Palace, Carnegieplein 2, 2517 KJ The Hague, Netherlands
Tel.: +31 (0)70 302 2323 Fax: +31 (0)70 364 9928

Press Release
Unofficial
No. 2022/34
9 September 2022

Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment
of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation)

The Kingdom of Sweden files a declaration of intervention in the
proceedings under Article 63 of the Statute

THE HAGUE, 9 September 2022. Today, the Kingdom of Sweden, invoking Article 63 of the Statute of the Court, filed in the Registry of the Court a declaration of intervention in the case concerning Allegations of Genocide under the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (Ukraine v. Russian Federation).

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DC mayor declares public emergency over busloads of migrants

BY BRAD DRESS – 09/08/22 1:48 PM ET, The Hill

[TĐH: This dumb Republican-Democratic war using migrants as the pawns shows how broken American politics is]

Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) and District of Columbia Department of Health Director LaQuandra Nesbitt hold a press conference in 2021.
Andrew Harnik/The Associated PressWashington Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) and District of Columbia Department of Health Director LaQuandra Nesbitt hold a press conference in 2021.

Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) on Thursday declared a public emergency over busloads of migrants from Texas and Arizona arriving in the nation’s capital.

Bowser said she was creating a new Office of Migrant Services to assist with the emergency, estimating that 9,400 migrants have been bused to her city since April and hundreds more are expected this fall.

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