TTCT – Áp lực nợ công được dự báo sẽ còn tăng mạnh với các nước đang phát triển. Việt Nam cần sẵn sàng cho những kịch bản xấu hơn hiện giờ.
Ảnh: Reason Magazine
Trong khi nợ công của Việt Nam hiện được đánh giá chưa phải là nỗi lo quá lớn, thì những diễn biến bất ổn ở khu vực châu Á, cũng như tình trạng nợ của khối FDI, doanh nghiệp nhà nước và sự yếu kém của hệ thống ngân hàng nói chung sẽ gây ra những áp lực lên tài chính khu vực công. Sự cẩn trọng và tiên liệu là không bao giờ thừa, nhất là trong hoàn cảnh đầy bất trắc hiện tại.
Phải tung gói hỗ trợ y tế và kích thích kinh tế vì đại dịch, đối phó với khủng hoảng giá năng lượng, lạm phát, cộng thêm đồng USD lên giá, nhiều quốc gia đang phải đối mặt áp lực chi trả nợ công ngày một lớn.
Quỹ Tiền tệ quốc tế (IMF) cảnh báo nhiều nước đang phát triển ở châu Á có thể lún sâu vào nợ nần và đối mặt rủi ro từ các khoản nợ chồng chất. Sri Lanka không còn có khả năng trả nợ nước ngoài và lâm vào khủng hoảng kinh tế. Hay gần đây, các nhà đầu tư bắt đầu lo ngại Pakistan có thể gặp rắc rối khi đồng nội tệ giảm giá mạnh so với đồng USD.
Vietnam has weathered the COVID-19 crisis better than most nations. The spread of the virus has been managed well, and despite turmoil in global markets the economy grew by around 3 percent in 2020, while running a $19 billion trade surplus. Investment inflows have likewise remained strong, leaving the country well-positioned for a post-pandemic recovery. How is it that Vietnam has fared so well?
Giá thép tăng nhanh thời gian gần đây, khiến cho nhiều chủ đại lý và các chủ thầu xây dựng gặp khó khăn trong hoạt động kinh doanh. Nhiều ý kiến đặt nghi vấn có sự bắt tay giữa các công ty thép hay có hiện tượng đầu cơ nâng giá mặt hàng này. Tuy nhiên, theo các bộ ngành và doanh nghiệp, đây là động thái hết sức bình thường của thị trường. Khảo sát thông tin giá thép trên thị trường, anh Ngô Khánh, Chủ đại lý sắt thép tại Hà Nội cho hay, hiện giá thép nhập vào ngày hôm nay (6/5) đã ở mức 18.200 đồng/kg, cao hơn 2.000 đồng/kg so với nửa tháng trước và tăng khoảng 5.000 đồng so với hồi đầu năm.
Vietnam is projected to be the fifth highest-growing economy in the world this year and the country has a unique opportunity to increase its footprint in the global economy in both trade and investment,
Stefanie Stallmeister, World Bank Acting Country Director for Vietnam, has said.
Vietnamese goods face tough road to foreign markets due to trade remedies
She made the remarks during the unveiling of the WB’s report “What will be the new normal for Vietnam? The economic impact of COVID-19” on July 30.
Update: July, 18/2020 – 07:18|VNSWorkers of Foster Electric Vietnam Co Ltd on a production line. The total import-export value of the whole country in June reached US$43.28 billion, up 15.8 per cent over May. — VNA/VNS Photo Thống Nhất
HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam recorded a trade surplus of US$5.46 billion in the first half of this year, the highest six-month surplus ever recorded, data of the General Department of Customs this week showed.
Việt Nam’s import and export activities recovered strongly in June, signalling a more optimistic outlook for the country’s foreign trade in the latter half of this year, especially as many countries have started easing COVID-19 control measures and are accelerating the recovery process.
Farmers harvest rice in a paddy field in the southern province of Soc Trang, March 10, 2020. Photo by VnExpress/Nguyet Nhi.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has forecast the highest 2020 GDP growth rate in Southeast Asia for Vietnam at 4.1 percent.
The regional bank has placed Myanmar in second place with an estimated growth rate of 1.8 percent while Brunei in third place with 1.4 percent. Thailand is at the bottom of the list at -6.5 percent, behind Singapore (-6 percent) and Cambodia (-5.5 percent).
Southeast Asia’s average GDP growth is estimated to contract by -2.7 percent this year and expected to rebound to 5.2 percent next year.
Although Covid-19 threw a spanner in the works for Vietnam’s thriving economic growth story, McKinsey & Company suggests that the country could resume pre-crisis growth levels by next year.
Two factors have combined to cushion the blow of Covid-19 on Vietnam’s economy, at least in comparison to other economies across Asia and the world. For one, the country was successful in containing the virus. In fact, reports highlight that the last report of community transmission of Covid-19 in Vietnam was two months ago. Tiếp tục đọc “Vietnam poised for quick recovery once the global economy reopens”→
Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong, Singapore-05 July 2020: Vietnam is positioned to stand out among Asia’s frontier and emerging markets this year in terms of its economic resilience and success in bringing the coronavirus outbreak under control, says Fitch Ratings. These factors should support Vietnam’s ‘BB’ rating, which we affirmed in April 2020 while revising the Outlook to Stable from Positive. Nevertheless, the country faces a number of challenges, including contingent liability risks from state-owned enterprises and structural weaknesses in the banking sector. Tiếp tục đọc “Vietnam Outperforms Among Asia’s Frontier Sovereigns”→
As it emerges from COVID-19, Vietnam’s domestic economy is set to return to growth, but not until the global economy bounces back.
It’s been two months since the last known case of community transmission of the coronavirus in Vietnam, enabling the country, hailed recently as one of the 11 outperformers among emerging economies, to be among the first to fully reopen its domestic economy.While recurrence remains an ever-present threat, Vietnam’s government is now turning its attention to repairing a damaged economy. Vietnam has fared better economically than many countries, but it has not been completely spared. GDP growth in the first quarter was at its lowest level since 2010, although it was still in positive territory at 3.8 percent. With exports and tourism severely affected, domestic consumption has been (and is expected to continue to be) critical to hold the economy together.
Staying afloat in 2020, largely thanks to spending on essentials
Vehicles travel on Vo Van Kiet Avenue in HCMC. This road was funded by official development assistance loans – PHOTO: VNA
HCMC – If the Vietnamese Government continues its fiscal consolidation, the public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio could be further reduced, possibly reaching below 57% by 2021, said an HSBC report.
Vietnam has been repeating the goal of “industrialization and modernization” like a mantra and has treated these goals as a given without critical thought applied to what it really means
In copying other countries’ development mistakes, Vietnam has paid a heavy price for not deploying due foresight. Now, we cannot ignore hindsight wisdom.
Nguyen Dang Anh Thi
When he was 18, my eldest brother faced a tough decision – should he go to university or take up vocational training?
Although he wanted to persist with his academic pursuit, he deferred to the family’s economic needs and decided to join the workforce to support the family.
So, instead of going to university, he decided to go to Tay Loc District in my home province, Thua Thien Hue, and learn tailoring.
One year, with a sudden surge in the need for making windcheaters in HCMC, my brother left home and headed for the southern metropolis in search of better work opportunities. He boarded the crammed bus, not daring to look behind at his sobbing family.