Europe’s energy ambitions are clear: to shift to a low-carbon future by remaking its power generating and distribution systems. But the present situation is an expensive mess. A global supply crunch for natural gas, bottlenecks for renewable energy and wind speeds in the North Sea among the slowest in 20 years, idling turbines, have contributed to soaring electricity prices. As winter approaches, governments are preparing to intervene if needed in volatile energy markets to keep homes warm and factories running.
1. What’s the problem here?
Energy prices skyrocketed as economies emerge from the pandemic — boosting demand just as supplies are falling short. Coal plants have been shuttered, gas stockpiles are low and the continent’s increasing reliance on renewable sources of energy is exposing its vulnerability. Even with mild weather in September, gas and electricity prices were breaking records across the continent and in the U.K. Italy’s Ecological Transition Minister Roberto Cingolani said he expected power prices to increase by 40% in the third quarter. In the U.K., CF Industries Holdings Inc., a major fertilizer producer, shut two plants, and Norwegian ammonia manufacturer Yara International ASA curbed its European production because of high fuel costs, as the crunch started to hit industrial companies.
Tiếp tục đọc “What’s Behind Europe’s Skyrocketing Power Prices”
Predictions of peak oil and the impending demise of fossil fuels will hit Asian oil refiners especially hard. The region is home to three of the top four oil-guzzling nations, and more than a third of global crude processing capacity. Yet, Asian refiners are expanding at a breakneck pace, even building massive new plants designed to run for at least half a century.
What is going on?
After a century of powering the world’s vehicles, oil refiners are having to plan for an oil-free future in mobility as cars begin switching to batteries, ships burn natural gas, and innovation brings on other energy sources such as hydrogen. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts oil demand for transportation will peak as early as 2026.
Yet, even as a slew of headlines announce oil major BP Plc selling its prized Alaskan fields or Royal Dutch Shell Plc pulling the plug on refineries from Louisiana to the Philippines, Asia’s big refineries are planning for a much longer transition. Chinese refining capacity has nearly tripled since the turn of the millennium, and the nation will end more than a century of U.S. dominancethis year. And China’s capacity will continue climbing – to about 20 million barrels a day by 2025, from 17.4 million barrels at the end of 2020. India’s processing is also rising rapidly and could jump by more than half to 8 million barrels a day in the same time.
By Dat Nguyen March 24, 2021 | 11:00 am GMT+7 vnexpressTam Dao 03 oil rig off Vietnam’s eastern coast. Photo by VnExpress/Quoc Huy.Vietnam’s crude oil export is plunging, partly because of depleting resources. An industrialist says the situation can only improve after new fields come online in several years.
Crude exports volume from January 1 to February 15 this year fell nearly 50 percent year-on-year to 354,700 tonnes, according to Vietnam Customs.
Most of Vietnam’s oil and gas fields have been harnessed for over 20 years ago and run their course, said Hoang Ngoc Trung, deputy director of Petrovietnam Exploration Production Corporation Ltd.
In the last five years, crude oil prices have been falling, which has affected investment in searching for new fields, he told the Tuoi Tre newspaper.
The corporation’s output was 3.8 million tonnes last year, down marginally from 2019, and the figure is set to fall another 10 percent this year.
However, Vietnam’s crude oil prices remain higher than the global average.
The global average price of Brent crude oil last year was $41.8 per barrel, but Vietnam sold them for $43.7, 4.5 percent higher.
In the first two months, Brent crude was $58.53 per barrel, compared to $59.94 percent in Vietnam.
Trung said exploitation volume is set to recover in the next two or three years with several new fields such as Dai Hung and White Lion coming online.Related News:
While the episode of negative WTI price is still being actively debated, its proper root cause is yet to be determined. This Comment contributes to the discussion and studies the event by modifying the theory of storage for an oil market with rigid operational infrastructure, where short-term supply and demand are price inelastic. We found that such pricing anomaly can be well characterized by a simple concept borrowed from the physics of extreme events.
The future prices are modelled as a financial derivative of the storage capacity. During normal market conditions, the spread between nearby futures contract is mostly determined by the carry trade and the cost of storage. However, if either inventory or the storage capacity is no longer available, the carry trade breaks down as the futures trader is unable to make or take the delivery of physical barrels. These events are akin to defaults in financial markets and prices leading to them are characterized by the financial squeeze.
We calibrate the model to inventory data at Cushing, Oklahoma and conclude that only a small fraction of the abnormal price move could be attributed to constraints on the storage capacity. The rest of the move was caused by the financial squeeze on long futures positions held against over-the-counter products. We detail the behavior of main market participants that led to negative prices. The Comment also points to several shortcomings of the recent CFTC report on this topic and suggests additional areas where a more granular look at the data could be helpful.
This comment looks at the announcement by the Danish government on 4 December to cancel the 8th offshore licensing round and all future rounds and to phase out all production of oil and gas by 2050. It describes the industry and political background to the announcement, including the ambitious legal target of a 70% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050, and the most recent official projections of offshore production. It concludes that it will shape operators’ investment and management of mature fields but its impact on Danish emissions and upstream production in 2030 and 2050 is likely to be much more modest than at first appears. However, if the reform galvanises the Danish authorities and investors to commit resources to the development of offshore CO2 storage in the period 2025-30, it may contribute significantly to Denmark’s climate objectives.
View full paper https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/A-Lesson-from-Physics-on-Negative-Oil-Prices.pdf
This Insight continues the OIES series considering the future of gas. The clear message from previous papers is that on the (increasingly certain) assumption that governments in major European gas markets remain committed to decarbonisation targets, the existing natural gas industry is under threat. It is therefore important to develop a decarbonisation narrative leading to a low- or zero-carbon gas implementation plan.
Previous papers have considered potential pathways for gas to decarbonise, specifically considering biogas and biomethane , and power-to-gas (electrolysis) . This paper goes on to consider the potential for production, transport and use of hydrogen in the decarbonising energy system. Previous papers predominately focused on Europe, which has been leading the way in decarbonisation. Hydrogen is now being considered more widely in various countries around the world, so this paper reflects that wider geographical coverage. Tiếp tục đọc “Hydrogen and decarbonisation of gas: false dawn or silver bullet?”