Conversations on Vietnam Development
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs. Tiếp tục đọc “Oil Prices: What’s Behind the Drop? Simple Economics”
English: The Hidden Consequences of the Oil CrashGiá dầu thô đang ở mức thấp kỷ lục kể từ năm 2003. Điều này có ý nghĩa gì đối với nước Mỹ và phần còn lại của thế giới – 15 chuyên gia đã cho biết By POLITICO Magazine January 21, 2016 Politico –Trong nhiều tháng, các tài xế Mỹ được chào đón tại các trạm xăng với một sự ngạc nhiên dễ chịu: Giá xăng hạ xuống một nửa, giảm trung bình hơn 2 đô la một ga-lông[1] kể từ đỉnh giá gần đây nhất trong năm 2011. Tổng thống Barack Obama đã dành một chút thời gian để nói về điều này trong Thông điệp liên bang hồi tuần trước, ông nói: “Xăng dưới hai đô một ga-lông không tồi. Hay có lẽ như vậy. Đằng sau sự sụt giá này là một sự sụp đổ lớn hơn trong giá dầu, từ hơn 100 đô la một thùng năm 2014 đến dưới 27 đô la trong tuần này. Vào hôm thứ ba, chỉ số Dow Jones giảm 250 điểm trong nỗi lo sợ về những điều sẽ xảy đến nếu giá dầu tiếp tục giảm, và điều này sẽ gây ra thêm nhiều nhiều tác động đến người tiêu dùng, và thậm chí đến thị trường toàn cầu. Giá dầu không chỉ dẫn dắt kinh tế, mà cả địa chính trị. Các liên minh hình thành và sụp đổ xung quanh vấn đề dầu thô. Giá Dầu cao chống đỡ cho các chính phủ Nga và Iran, tạo ra sự ổn định ở các nước Trung Đông và cũng tạo nguồn doanh thu cho các nhóm cực đoan ở Nigeria và I-rắc. Tiếp tục đọc “Những hậu quả khó thấy của sụt giảm mạnh giá dầu thô” |
An increasingly unprofitable global oil market is driving fuel prices to historic lows and hemorrhaging investment in conventional energy sources. Breaking with tradition, cheap oil no longer foretells disaster for renewable energy companies. On the contrary, disillusioned fossil fuel investors are seeking high-growth opportunities—just in time to ride the renewables wave in the wake of the 2015 Paris climate talks.
worldwatch – Crashing out in February at $27 per barrel, crude oil prices have reached their lowest point in over 13 years, since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Despite a modest recovery in March driven by expectations for reduced production, investors remain skeptical of underlying oil market fundamentals and are reducing their exposure. These selloffs have dragged down the stock prices of large conventional energy companies listed in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 13 percent and have cost investors more than $703 billion since the record-high oil prices of June 2014.
Responding to these selloffs, oil companies have tightened their belts, decommissioning two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cutting investment in oil field exploration and development, while an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs. A Wood Mackenzie report identified 68 major oil and natural gas projects—representing a combined value of $380 billion and output of 2.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day—that have been put on hold since late 2014. Besides reducing operating costs, oil companies hope that these measures will have a stabilizing effect on the market by reducing productive capacity in the medium to long term. Tiếp tục đọc “From Omen to Opportunity: How Cheap Oil Is Accelerating Sustainable Energy Investment”
ocppc – For the purpose of this short note, industrial policy is defined as government intervention in a specific sector which is designed to boost the growth prospects of that sector and to promote development of the wider economy. I exclude from this definition horizontal policies, such as investment in education, reinforcement of the rule of law and property rights, and so on, even though these horizontal policies can affect different sectors differently and so can be part of an industrial policy. I do so for the sake of brevity and because the importance of horizontal policies is widely understood, and there is much less controversy surrounding them than around sectoral interventions. To sharpen the focus further, I also exclude interventions at the sectoral level which aim to achieve other objectives than growth and employment, such as improving environmental and safety standards, as these interventions aim to correct well-recognized market failures and are also relatively uncontroversial.
Industrial policy so defined takes many shapes, including regulatory reform, subsidies, protection, and direct government ownership of enterprises, and it has a checkered past. Its heyday was in the 1950s and 1960s, a period characterized by post-war recovery, rapid growth, decolonization, and import substituting industrialization (ISI). Following the ideas of Hirschman (1958)dynamic industrial sectors paying high wages and exhibiting strong backward linkages received special attention. While many developing countries did well during this phase, their inability to sustain growth following the oil shocks and inflation of the 1970s, the international interest rate hikes and Latin American debt crisis that followed, severely discredited ISI. Drawing on the example of a small number of successful “Asian tigers”, a new “outward-oriented” model of industrial policy became increasingly accepted. This entailed systematic promotion of key manufacturing export sectors which could exploit large world markets, but which also required imports of state-of-the-art machinery, the know-how of foreign investors, and maintenance of a competitive exchange rate (Dani Rodrik, Middle East Development Journal, 2008). Encouraged by some international organizations such as UNIDO and UNCTAD, many developing countries, for example, Brazil and India, continue to practice this model today, or at least, attempt to do so.
Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again Jan 23rd 2016 | From the print edition Timekeeper
economist – ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.
In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.
The new economics of oil
The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d. Tiếp tục đọc “Who’s afraid of cheap oil?”
Washingtonpost – You can only defy financial gravity for so long. At some point, what went up for no reason must come down for a very good one, no matter what the government does to try to keep it aloft.
Which is to say that it was another disastrous day for Chinese stocks. On the plus side, though, it was a short one. Indeed, China’s market was only open for 14 minutes on Thursday before it fell the maximum 7 percent it’s allowed to in a single session. It’s the second time that’s happened this week, enough to erase almost all its gains since the summer. Tiếp tục đọc “What’s really important about China’s stock market disaster, and what’s not”
Published on Tuesday, 15 December 2015
blogs.ADB.org – At this week’s 10th World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference in Nairobi, Kenya, trade ministers are trying to advance 15 years of Doha Development Agenda talks to reduce trade barriers. The real issue, however, is whether African economies can follow East Asia’s success in global supply chains amid “new normal” growth and rising inequality.
Global supply chains refer to the geographical location of stages of production (design, production, marketing, and service activities) in a cost-effective manner and linked by trade in intermediate inputs and final goods. For instance, the Toyota Prius—a hybrid electric mid-size hatchback car—for the US market was designed in Japan and is presently assembled there, but some parts and components are made in Southeast Asia and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Tiếp tục đọc “What Africa can learn from Asian supply chains”
Thứ hai, 27 Tháng 4 2015 17:15
NCBĐ – Khi Shinzo Abe trở thành Thủ tướng Nhật Bản vào tháng 12/2012, ông đã khơi dậy nhiều kỳ vọng lớn về chính sách kinh tế. Abe hứa hẹn một sự thay đổi triệt để trong chính sách tiền tệ, củng cố tài khóa trong dài hạn và các cải cách cấu trúc để hồi sinh nền kinh tế. Tuy nhiên sau năm sau, chính sách kinh tế Abenomics đã không đem lại kết quả như mong đợi.
Bất chấp sự mở rộng chính sách tiền tệ chưa từng thấy và kích thích tài khóa mạnh mẽ, Nhật Bản vẫn chưa vượt qua được tình trạng giảm phát và tăng trưởng yếu. Và cho dù thuế tiêu dùng đã được tăng lên, ngân sách quốc gia vẫn còn cách rất xa sự củng cố bền vững. Abe cũng đang nợ đất nước các cải cách mang tính đột phá khuyến khích tăng trưởng. Tại sao các mục tiêu đề ra lại không thể đạt được? Còn có những lựa chọn nào cho chính sách phát triển và kinh tế của Nhật Bản – khi xét tới tình hình nợ công đang tăng lên và sự già hóa không ngừng của xã hội. Tiếp tục đọc “Nhật Bản sau hai năm thực hiện Abenomics”
WSJ – Low fuel prices and new climate policies are rapidly transforming the American energy sector, while escalating wars in the Middle East and a nuclear deal with Iran are clouding the global oil picture.
To get a sense of what the energy future may hold, The Wall Street Journal reached out to three experts in energy and geopolitics: Amy Myers Jaffe, executive director of energy and sustainability at the University of California, Davis; Sarah Emerson, principal at ESAI Energy and president of Energy Security Analysis Inc.; and Meghan O’Sullivan, the Jeane Kirkpatrick professor of the practice of international affairs and director of the Geopolitics of Energy Project at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government. Here are edited excerpts.
WSJ: What will the U.S. energy industry look like a year from now if low oil and gas prices persist? Tiếp tục đọc “What Will the U.S. Energy Industry Look Like Over the Next Five Years?”
CSIS – Countries and companies of all sizes continue to adjust to the new economic and market realities following the oil price collapse of 2014. And while the growth in U.S. unconventional production appears to be slowly abating, the upsurge in Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) output, robust global stock levels, and ongoing uncertainty around the strength of demand suggest that the oversupply and surpluses are likely to continue well into next year, exerting continued downward pressure on prices.
Forbes – Think of the word “sustainability” and what springs to mind? For many, it means being “green,” and accepting the need for more careful use of increasingly limited natural resources. More specifically, it is a word synonymous with energy renewal and efficiency programs, harnessing the power of the sun, water and wind.
Advocates of these programs argue that they are ultimately good for the bottom line. Yet there are those – and there are many across the boardrooms of global business – who caution that sustainability can be a slippery slope, leading the corporation to make investments that may be good for society but detrimental to shareholders.
Let me offer another word to consider – “development.” Perhaps you would associate this with something that governments are responsible for – the economic and social development of their country through sensible domestic and foreign policies. Companies, of course, should be in compliance with whatever laws exist to implement these policies, but they are not directly responsible for development, right? Tiếp tục đọc “UN Sustainable Development Goals: Good For Business”
English: Oil Market Forecast: Stormy with a Chance of Upside
By Frank A. Verrastro, Kevin Book
Sau gần hơn 1 năm từ sự kiện giá dầu sụt mạnh vào năm 2014, các quốc gia và các công ty vẫn đang tiếp tục thích nghi với các biến động mới của thị trường và nền kinh tế. Ngay cả khi giá dầu giảm mạnh, nguồn cung vẫn tiếp tục bỏ xa lượng cầu, góp phần làm gia tăng lượng dầu tồn toàn cầu vốn đã rất lớn. Sự tăng trưởng đột biến của sản phẩm xăng dầu phi truyền thống (1) của Mỹ đã bắt đầu giảm bớt, nhưng vẫn được giữ vững nhờ chi phí sản xuất giảm, hiệu suất khoan được cải thiện, dòng vốn mới đổ vào, tỷ suất thu hồi của các giếng ở nửa chu kỳ vẫn giúp giữ cho nhiều công ty quy mô trung bình tiếp tục hoạt động cho các bể dầu chính. Hoạt động khai thác ngoài khơi (được đầu tư từ các năm trước) tiếp tục phát triển nhanh và khối lượng khai thác của Tổ chức các nước xuất khẩu dầu lửa (OPEC) tiếp tục tăng vượt hạn mức hiện tại khoảng hơn một triệu rưỡi thùng một ngày, dự kiến sẽ còn tăng cao hơn nhờ hoạt động khai thác của Iran (thời kỳ sau khi các lệnh trừng phạt chấm dứt (2) ) và có thể cả Iraq và Libya. Tiếp tục đọc “Dự báo thị trường dầu mỏ: Nhiều biến động với cơ hội khả quan hơn”
Federal Nigerian troops walk along a road to the frontier with Biafray, Oct. 13, 1968. On the roadside two emaciated Nigerian boys suffer from starvation and malnutrition. (AP Photo/Dennis Lee Royle
Washingtonpost – It sounds kind of crazy to say that foreign aid often hurts, rather than helps, poor people in poor countries. Yet that is what Angus Deaton, the newest winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, has argued.
Deaton, an economist at Princeton University who studied poverty in India and South Africa and spent decades working at the World Bank, won his prize for studying how the poor decide to save or spend money. But his ideas about foreign aid are particularly provocative. Deaton argues that, by trying to help poor people in developing countries, the rich world may actually be corrupting those nations’ governments and slowing their growth. According to Deaton, and the economists who agree with him, much of the $135 billion that the world’s most developed countries spent on official aid in 2014 may not have ended up helping the poor. Tiếp tục đọc “Why trying to help poor countries might actually hurt them”
GUY SORMAN
City-journal – At the beginning of the new millennium, it became fashionable to proclaim the West’s economic decline and the rise of a new global leadership. In 2001, Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neill captured the trend by coining the soon-to-be-famous acronym BRIC, referring to the leading economically emerging nations—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—that would constitute that new leadership. Eventually, South Africa was added to the group, making them the BRICS, but many people still think first of the original four, and refer to them as the BRICs. Tiếp tục đọc “The BRICs Hit the Wall: Emerging economies are a long way from eclipsing the West.”
After many decades of driving regional growth, the economy of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is now slowing down, and this is likely going to have a noticeable effect on the world economy and especially globally integrated economies in developing Asia. Tiếp tục đọc “PRC’s slowdown for Asia’s growth – key takeaways”
CVD 