Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) is one of the cities in developing countries where many concentrations of air pollutants exceeded the Vietnam national technical regulation in ambient air quality including TSP, NO_x, Ozone and CO. These high pollutant concentrations have destroyed the human health of people in HCMC. Many zones in HCMC can’t receive more air pollutants. The objectives of this research are: (i) Air quality modeling over HCMC by using the TAPM-CTM system model by using a bottom up air emission inventory; and (ii) Study loading capactities of air pollutant emissions over Ho Chi Minh City. Simulations of air pollution were conducted in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), the largest city of Vietnam by using the TAPM-CTM model. The model performance was evaluated using observed meteorological data at Tan Son Hoa station and air quality data at the Ho Chi Minh City University of Science. The model is then applied to simulate a retire 1-year period to determine the levels of air pollutants in HCMC in 2017, 2025 and 2030. The results show that the highest concentrations of CO, NO₂, and O₃ in 2017 exceeded the National technical regulation in ambient air quality (QCVN 05:2013) 1.5, 1.5, and 1.1 times, respectively. These values also will increase in 2025 and 2030 if the local government does not have any plan for the reduction of emissions, especially, SO₂ in 2030 also will be 1.02 times higher than that in QCVN 05:2013. The emission zoning was initially studied by calculating and simulating the loading capacities of each pollutant based on the highest concentration and the National technical regulation in ambient air quality. The results show that the center of HCMC could not receive anymore the emission, even needs to reduce half of the emission. Under the easterly prevailing wind in the dry season, the high pollution was more likely to be experienced in the west of Ho Chi Minh. In contrast, the eastern regions were the upwind areas and the pollutants could transport to the downwind sectors. It was recommended that the best strategy for emission control in HCMC is avoiding industrial and urban development in the upwind areas to achieve better air quality for both areas. In the case of necessity to choose one area for development, the downwind sector is preferred. The results show that TAPM-CTM performed well as applied to simulate the air quality in HCMC and is a promising tool to study the emission zoning.
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