Beyond Declining Battery Prices: 6 Ways to Evaluate Energy Storage in 2021

greentechmedia.com

Balance of systems, software, supply chain constraints, and reliability and performance guarantees all weigh on total costs.

Batteries make up only a slice of energy storage system costs. (Credit: Ameren)

Batteries make up only a slice of energy storage system costs. (Credit: Ameren)

The energy storage market in the United States is booming, with 476 megawatts of new projects installed in the third quarter of 2020 alone, up 240 percent over the second quarter, according to industry analysts at Wood Mackenzie. 2021 is expected to be another record-breaking year for storage, but with technological innovation accelerating across the market, renewable energy asset owners need to carefully select safe and reliable systems to protect their storage investments. As the market accelerates, these are a few of the essential questions asset owners should be asking.

1. Evaluate pricing beyond the cell

When analysts speak about declines in storage pricing, they are referring to battery pricing, which continues to decline every year. Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest report states that current lithium-ion pricing stands at about $137 per kilowatt-hour and will drop as low as $100 per kWh by 2023.

However, purchasers of energy storage systems may see substantially higher prices for their projects, depending on a range of factors. For example, the lowest pricing for lithium-ion batteries is generally available for either a major supply contract or for very large-scale deployments of 500 megawatt-hours and above. Since most projects today are not that large, that $137 per kWh figure will be closer to $150 to $170 per kWh, and perhaps as high as $200 to $210 per kWh on the battery-pack level, depending on the size of the project.
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A Lesson from Physics on Oil Prices: Revisiting the Negative WTI Oil Price Episode

While the episode of negative WTI price is still being actively debated, its proper root cause is yet to be determined. This Comment contributes to the discussion and studies the event by modifying the theory of storage for an oil market with rigid operational infrastructure, where short-term supply and demand are price inelastic. We found that such pricing anomaly can be well characterized by a simple concept borrowed from the physics of extreme events.

The future prices are modelled as a financial derivative of the storage capacity. During normal market conditions, the spread between nearby futures contract is mostly determined by the carry trade and the cost of storage. However, if either inventory or the storage capacity is no longer available, the carry trade breaks down as the futures trader is unable to make or take the delivery of physical barrels. These events are akin to defaults in financial markets and prices leading to them are characterized by the financial squeeze.

We calibrate the model to inventory data at Cushing, Oklahoma and conclude that only a small fraction of the abnormal price move could be attributed to constraints on the storage capacity. The rest of the move was caused by the financial squeeze on long futures positions held against over-the-counter products. We detail the behavior of main market participants that led to negative prices. The Comment also points to several shortcomings of the recent CFTC report on this topic and suggests additional areas where a more granular look at the data could be helpful.

This comment looks at the announcement by the Danish government on 4 December to cancel the 8th offshore licensing round and all future rounds and to phase out all production of oil and gas by 2050. It describes the industry and political background to the announcement, including the ambitious legal target of a 70% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 and climate neutrality by 2050, and the most recent official projections of offshore production. It concludes that it will shape operators’ investment and management of mature fields but its impact on Danish emissions and upstream production in 2030 and 2050 is likely to be much more modest than at first appears. However, if the reform galvanises the Danish authorities and investors to commit resources to the development of offshore COstorage in the period 2025-30, it may contribute significantly to Denmark’s climate objectives.

View full paper https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/A-Lesson-from-Physics-on-Negative-Oil-Prices.pdf

Key Considerations for Adoption of Technical Codes and Standards for Battery Energy Storage Systems in Thailand.

Executive Summary

The deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS) is rapidly increasing throughout the world. This technology presents many opportunities for increasing contributions of variable renewable energy technologies, providing ancillary services, enabling energy access to remote areas, and increasing resilience during grid power outages. At the same time, BESS has not been widely deployed and operated in many contexts. The use of BESS requires codes and standards similar to those for other inverter-based technologies but may also necessitate special safety considerations in specific contexts. As countries in Asia consider the inclusion of BESS in their power systems to meet policy objectives, renewable energy goals, increase resilience, and expand energy access, there is an opportunity to learn from the experiences of other regions and jurisdictions that have developed more advanced storage markets and practices.

This report presents global best practices of codes, standards, and interconnection procedures developed to support the safe and reliable deployment of BESS. Several relevant case studies highlight current efforts to ensure safe operation of BESS and showcase potential pathways for adoption of relevant codes and standards. Specifically, this report is intended to support the Thailand Office of Energy Regulatory Commission (OERC) and other stakeholders in their efforts to develop technical codes and standards to govern the installation and operation of BESS; it may also be utilized as a guide for other countries as interest in the deployment of BESS technologies continues to grow. Coupled with well-defined regulatory objectives, market incentives, permitting procedures, and technical review processes, the adoption of technical codes and standards that govern the design, construction, installation, and operation of BESS can help provide regulatory certainty, as well as reduce barriers to investment. Such codes and standards also ensure BESS deployment will meet national, regional, and local goals, while maintaining a reliable grid, and ensuring public safety.

Finally, a robust BESS market can support the increased adoption of variable renewable energy generation technologies to meet Thailand’s energy portfolio goals. This report has been prepared by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Regional Development Mission for Asia, and in collaboration with USAID Clean Power Asia.

Download full report https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/78780.pdf

Steps to Aid US Fossil Fuel Workers in the Clean Energy Transition

WRI.org

The economic fallout from COVID-19 took a serious toll on U.S. fossil fuel workers and communities. But well before the coronavirus pandemic arrived, the U.S. fossil fuel industry was under significant pressure as the country moves toward cleaner forms of energy.
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Better infrastructure is way to absorb surge in renewable energy production: experts

e.vnexpress.net 

By Viet Anh   January 24, 2021 | 07:56 am GMT+7

Storing renewable energy in batteries and pumped storage of water to generate power, and improving transmission capacity are keys for Vietnam to foster renewable energy, according to experts.

Nguyen Duc Ninh, director of the National Load Dispatch Center, said earlier this month Vietnam plans to reduce its renewable energy output by 1.3 billion kilowatt hours this year since it lacks transmission capacity.

Installed solar power capacity reached 19,400 MWp by the end of last year, or 25 percent of total power capacity.

Dr Hang Dao, a sustainable energy expert at the World Resources Institute (WRI), said the reason Vietnam has solar energy surplus is the country’s electric grid and infrastructure are quite weak, and so energy is not transmitted to locations where needed.

The national grid is out of date and needs to be upgraded, but it would take time to install a modern network, and while waiting for it the country could focus on short-term storage plans, said Hang.

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2020 tied for warmest year on record, NASA analysis shows

Sciencedaily.com

Earth’s global average surface temperature in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record, according to an analysis by NASA.

Continuing the planet’s long-term warming trend, the year’s globally averaged temperature was 1.84 degrees Fahrenheit (1.02 degrees Celsius) warmer than the baseline 1951-1980 mean, according to scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. 2020 edged out 2016 by a very small amount, within the margin of error of the analysis, making the years effectively tied for the warmest year on record.
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Bans on Parler and Trump Show Big Tech’s Power Over Web Conversation

bloomberg.com

As Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. banished users and groups supporting the violent mobs at the U.S. Capitol last week — including President Donald Trump himself — downloads surged for a less restrictive social media app called Parler. But in an effort to prevent further riot organizing, Google Inc. and Apple Inc. booted Parler from their app stores, and Amazon.com Inc. shut off its web services.

“We will not cave to pressure from anti-competitive actors!” John Matze, Parler Inc.’s chief executive officer, said on his site Friday. “We WON’T cave to politically motivated companies and those authoritarians who hate free speech!”

In reality, Matze doesn’t have much choice. His free-speech-centric network, where some extremists turned to rally insurgents and organize future uprisings, was deemed an “ongoing and urgent public safety threat” by Google. Apple quickly rejected as insufficient a Parler plan to moderate its content. Amazon employees asked that the web giant “deny Parler services until it removes posts inciting violence, including at the Presidential inauguration.” Amazon plans to shut down the service at midnight Sunday, according to Matze.
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Why some researchers struggle to escape the ivory tower

theconversation.com

Academics are increasingly expected to share their research widely beyond academia. However, our recent study of academics in Australia and Japan suggests Australian universities are still very much focused on supporting the production of scholarly outputs. They offer relatively limited support for researchers’ efforts to engage with the many non-academics who can benefit from our research.

One reason engagement is expected is that government, industry and philanthropic sources fund research. And when academics share their research with the public, industry and policymakers, this engagement is good for the university’s reputation. It can also lead to other benefits such as research funding.


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How to transform systems: The World Resources Institute Q&A with Andrew Steer

Mongabay.com

  • Between the pandemic, rising food insecurity and poverty, and catastrophic disasters like wildfires, storms and droughts, 2020 was a year of challenges that prompted widespread calls for systemic change in how we interact with one another, with other species, and with the environment. Bringing about such changes will require transforming how we produce food and energy, how we move from one place to another, and how we define economic growth.
  • But it’s a lot easier to talk about transforming systems than to actually do it. Because real change is hard, we’re more likely to slip back into old habits and return to business as usual than embrace paradigm shifts.
  • Recognizing this limitation, World Resources Institute (WRI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization that operates in 60 countries, works across sectors by creating tools that increase transparency, create a common understanding, and provide data and analysis that enable action.
  • WRI’s development of these platforms and tools has grown by leaps and bounds since the early 2010s when Andrew Steer joined the organization as president and CEO from the World Bank. Steer spoke with Mongabay during a December 2020 interview.

Between the pandemic, rising food insecurity and poverty, and catastrophic disasters like wildfires, storms and droughts, 2020 was a year of challenges that prompted widespread calls for systemic change in how we interact with one another, with other species, and with the environment. Bringing about such changes will require transforming how we produce food and energy, how we move from one place to another, and how we define economic growth. But it’s a lot easier to talk about transforming systems than to actually do it. Because real change is hard, we’re more likely to slip back into old habits and return to business as usual than embrace paradigm shifts. Tiếp tục đọc “How to transform systems: The World Resources Institute Q&A with Andrew Steer”

Renewable Energy Lab. NREL’s Updated System Advisor Model

The latest version of NREL’s popular System Advisor Model (SAM) is now available, providing more robust data and seamless integration with other NREL models to help the renewable energy industry make informed project decisions.

SAM is free, publicly available modeling software for technical performance simulation and financial analysis of renewable energy projects and includes a desktop application, software development kit, and open-source code.

Updates to the model include:

  • The addition of the latest solar resource data from NREL’s National Solar Radiation Database, including yearly and sub-hourly data and covering Europe, Africa, and Asia for the first time
  • Improved battery dispatch for both front-of-meter and behind-the-meter battery storage applications
  • Improved electricity bill calculations for distributed behind-the-meter financial models
  • Implementation of NREL’s Solar Position Algorithm for sun angle calculations of solar performance models
  • Integration of NREL’s Land-Based Balance-of-System Systems Engineering Model for improved wind power plant system cost estimation and design.

“With the recent improvements, we’re excited to continue to ensure that complex energy analysis questions can be answered quickly and easily,” said Janine Freeman, NREL lead for the SAM model.

A tale of 2020 in 20 McKinsey charts

Mckinsey.cim

See the story of this unique year through data visualizations from our Charting the Path to the Next Normal series.
This year, we launched a new series to highlight our best charts and data visualizations—the ones that deserved lives of their own outside the articles they were originally created for. Every weekday, we post a selection from one of our highly skilled data-visualization editors to our collection page, Charting the Path to the Next Normal. As we look back at the year that was, these daily charts tell a story about our changing world, from the early days of lockdowns and a tumultuous summer to ending the year on a hopeful note. While uncertainty remains, and each chart in isolation offers but one lens on the landscape, the themes emerging from the collection as a whole provide unique insight into the many disruptions 2020 visited on us.

How Vietnam came to embrace a new vision of the Mekong Delta’s future

Fashion brand Nike and H&M to Vietnam: More renewables, please

Asia.nikkei.com

29 global fashion brands say green energy will boost No. 3 textile exporter

A wind park in Vietnam’s Bac Lieu Province.   © Reuters

HO CHI MINH CITY — Fashion brands including H&M and Nike are pressing Vietnam to move ahead with a renewable energy purchase program as companies come under increasing pressure to meet their sustainability goals, Nikkei Asia has learned.

A consortium of 29 brands sent a letter to Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc this month urging the country to introduce direct power purchase agreements (DPPA) between private buyers and sellers of renewable energy. Currently, energy users can only buy electricity through the national utility or through small-scale projects such as rooftop solar panels.

International clothing brands, which rely heavily on Asian garment factories, are under pressure from shareholders and consumers to reduce emissions in their supply chains. Renewable energy in Vietnam — the world’s third-largest textile exporter — is key to those companies hitting their emission targets.

“Without the DPPA we believe renewable energy development will plateau and fall short of meeting the growing energy needs of Vietnam’s industries,” the consortium warned in the Dec. 15 letter, seen by Nikkei.
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First Solar’s Photovoltaic Technology Completes 25 Years of Testing at NREL

NREL.gov

Dec. 14, 2020

Photo of an outdoor array of solar panels
First Solar’s 0.6 kilowatt cadmium telluride PV solar test array has been tested at NREL’s Outdoor Test Facility for 25 years. Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL

 

Determining how many years a solar panel will last can take, well, years. Intended to function for 25 years or more, solar panels must be made to withstand the elements. In some cases, panels continue working well after their planned operational lifetime. Nowhere is this more evident than on the sunny hillside in Golden, Colorado, where the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) operates the Outdoor Test Facility (OTF). Tiếp tục đọc “First Solar’s Photovoltaic Technology Completes 25 Years of Testing at NREL”

Southeast Asia braces for trash dump as China enacts waste import ban

SCMP
  • On January 1, China will no longer be accepting waste from other countries, with Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia likely to feel the brunt of the new policy
  • Although the three countries have taken steps to deal with mounting trash, corruption and weak policies could doom them to remain buried in refuse
A river canal in Ho Chi Minh City choked by mostly plastic waste. Photo: Sen Nguyen
A river canal in Ho Chi Minh City choked by mostly plastic waste. Photo: Sen Nguyen

China, which used to be the world’s salvage king, is shutting its door to all waste imports starting the first day of the new year. The recent announcement triggered the same kind of anxiety among waste-exporting countries as in 2018, when China enacted its “Operation National Sword” policy, which banned the import of 24 types of solid waste, including plastic waste.

The 2018 policy switch caused the world’s major waste-exporting countries – Europe, Britain, the US and Australia – to scramble for alternative destinations, including

Southeast Asian

nations like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, which quickly became overwhelmed by the volume of refuse they received. Soon after, these countries began to impose their own bans and restrictions on waste imports.

With China’s latest announcement about a blanket waste ban, concerns have been raised about the effects this might have on Southeast Asian countries, where limited waste-management capacities are common.

Plastic pollution plagues Southeast Asia amid Covid-19 lockdowns
10 Aug 2020
Vietnam

, which borders China and was one of the countries most affected by Beijing’s 2018 waste policy, might not be ready for more imported waste. According to a national report released last month, various types of solid waste imported for manufacturing do not only not meet the national technical standard in regards to

environmental protection

but also put more pressure on waste-management services in the country.

Meanwhile, most of the domestically made solid waste processing equipment is unsynchronized, incomplete and not yet common in the country – going by the National Environmental Status Report in 2019 issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. No specific national guidelines exist on what technology to use to treat municipal solid waste.

Since 2018, the Vietnamese government has kept a tight rein of its scrap imports through various policies, including amending the country’s technical standard to ensure only quality scrap is allowed in and cracking down on illegal shipments of thousands of containers of paper, plastic and metal scrap. Vietnam imported 9.2 million tons of scrap in the same year, a 14 per cent year-on-year increase, according to Vietnam customs statistics.

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