With 2023 the warmest year on record, 2024 could see the unwelcome milestone of 1.5C of warming reached for a full year
The global outlook suggests 2024 will end with average global temperatures between 1.34C and 1.58C above preindustrial levels. Photograph: Matt York/AP
The year 2023 has been confirmed as the warmest in recorded history, with average global temperatures topping 1.5C of heating above preindustrial levels for more than one third of the year. It continues the rapid warming trend, with the 10 warmest years in human history all having occurred since 2010.
So what could 2024 hold? Forecasts suggest the year ahead is likely to be another record breaker, with a strong possibility that this could be the first full year to go beyond 1.5C of warming.
The ongoing El Niño event, which brings warmer waters to the tropical Pacific Ocean, is helping to push global temperatures up, but UK Met Office scientists say the main driver of the record-breaking temperatures is human-induced warming.
Their global outlook for 2024 suggests we will end the year with average global temperatures somewhere between 1.34C and 1.58C above preindustrial levels.
Overshooting 1.5C would be an unwelcome milestone but it would not mean we have breached the Paris agreement. Curiously, the 2015 climate accord did not define how we would recognise that the 1.5C target had been surpassed, but it is widely accepted to mean a longer-term average over 20 years or so.
Rather than waiting decades for data to roll in, recent research published in Nature suggests using a blend of observations and model projections to test when 1.5C has been passed.
I am an attorney in the Washington DC area, with a Doctor of Law in the US, attended the master program at the National School of Administration of Việt Nam, and graduated from Sài Gòn University Law School. I aso studied philosophy at the School of Letters in Sài Gòn.
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I have worked as an anti-trust attorney for Federal Trade Commission and a litigator for a fortune-100 telecom company in Washington DC.
I have taught law courses for legal professionals in Việt Nam and still counsel VN government agencies on legal matters.
I have founded and managed businesses for me and my family, both law and non-law.
I have published many articles on national newspapers and radio stations in Việt Nam.
In 1989 I was one of the founding members of US-VN Trade Council, working to re-establish US-VN relationship.
Since the early 90's, I have established and managed VNFORUM and VNBIZ forum on VN-related matters; these forums are the subject of a PhD thesis by Dr. Caroline Valverde at UC-Berkeley and her book Transnationalizing Viet Nam.
I translate poetry and my translation of "A Request at Đồng Lộc Cemetery" is now engraved on a stone memorial at Đồng Lộc National Shrine in VN.
I study and teach the Bible and Buddhism. In 2009 I founded and still manage dotchuoinon.com on positive thinking and two other blogs on Buddhism.
In 2015 a group of friends and I founded website CVD - Conversations on Vietnam Development (cvdvn.net).
I study the art of leadership with many friends who are religious, business and government leaders from many countries.
I have written these books, published by Phu Nu Publishing House in Hanoi:
"Positive Thinking to Change Your Life", in Vietnamese (TƯ DUY TÍCH CỰC Thay Đổi Cuộc Sống) (Oct. 2011)
"10 Core Values for Success" (10 Giá trị cốt lõi của thành công) (Dec. 2013)
"Live a Life Worth Living" (Sống Một Cuộc Đời Đáng Sống) (Oct. 2023)
I practice Jiu Jitsu and Tai Chi for health, and play guitar as a hobby, usually accompanying my wife Trần Lê Túy Phượng, aka singer Linh Phượng.
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CVD 