CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Aug 6, 2015

Aquino’s Legacy Secure but Philippines’ Challenges Remain

By Phuong Nguyen (@PNguyen_DC), Research Associate, and John Juenemann, Researcher, Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), CSIS

August 6, 2015

President Benigno Aquino used his final State of the Nation Address on July 27 to cement his legacy of anticorruption efforts and track record of revamping the once-sluggish Philippine economy. While Aquio has played a leading role in steering the Philippines in the right direction over the past five years, his term will end in 2016—as Philippine presidents are constitutionally constrained to a six-year term. Nonetheless, the Philippines still faces daunting challenges ahead, including in its internal and external security, defense modernization drive, and economic reform agenda. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Aug 6, 2015”

2015 South China Sea Developments: A Five Minute Guide

• July 15, 2015

By Emily Chen

The CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies has prepared a timeline summarizing security developments in the South China Sea during the first half of 2015. The included chronology and infographic covers events through July 15, 2015 and provides a short assessment of present power projection capabilities among the relevant countries. Tiếp tục đọc “2015 South China Sea Developments: A Five Minute Guide”

CSIS – Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – July 9, 2015

Battle over Myanmar Constitution Caught Washington in its Crossfire

By Phuong Nguyen (@PNguyen_DC), Research Associate, Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), CSIS

July 9, 2015

Myanmar’s union parliament on June 25 voted to reject five of six major amendments to the 2008, military-drafted constitution, in a decision that has critical implications for Myanmar’s political landscape and puts U.S. policymakers in a delicate position. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS – Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – July 9, 2015”

CSIS: AMTI Brief – July 2, 2015

AMTI Brief – July 2, 2015

Dredging up the Issues:

S&ED Analysis plus New Spratly Imagery
This week, AMTI has released exclusive new imagery of ongoing facility construction at Johnson South Reef and Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands. With the conclusion of the U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue last week, AMTI has also released a video interview with CSIS Senior Adviser Bonnie Glaser explaining the significance and the takeaways from this meeting. Finally, AMTI has released updated sizes for all China’s reclaimed features.

Read On…

 

Expert Analysis
Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: AMTI Brief – July 2, 2015”

CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – June 25th, 2015

Revisiting U.S. Policy toward Post-Coup Thailand

By Ernest Z. Bower (@BowerCSIS), Senior Adviser and Chair, and Murray Hiebert (@MurrayHiebert1), Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), CSIS

June 25, 2015

At a time when U.S. relations with most countries in Southeast Asia are warming, the United States’ ties with its oldest partner in the region are a critical outlier. Thailand-U.S. relations have been in a deep freeze for the past 13 months since Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha ousted an elected civilian government following six months of disruptive political protests and installed a military junta.

Thailand is going through a historic political transition that has existential stakes for Thais. Meanwhile, much of the rest of Southeast Asia is seeing a nuanced shift away from centrally controlled political models as its fast-expanding and relatively young middle class, empowered by strong economic growth and technological innovations, has begun to assert itself and press governments for more transparency, access to decisionmaking, and stronger institutions.

ASEAN, of which Thailand is a founding member, is central to the U.S. rebalance to Asia. In responding to Thailand’s political crisis, the United States must walk a tightrope, balancing consistency in U.S. foreign-policy tenets supporting democracy, human rights, and freedom of expression with an unwavering focus on a strategic compass that defines U.S. interests as sustaining a strong and unified ASEAN as the core of an emerging regional economic and security architecture.

Read More | Read Newsletter in PDF


Biweekly Update

  • Fighting resumes in Myanmar’s Kachin State, Kokang region
  • Malaysian opposition coalition abolished as DAP, PAS sever ties
  • MILF starts laying down arms as Philippine Congress delays Bangsamoro law

Read more…| Read Newsletter in PDF

Looking Ahead

  • Annual CNAS Conference
  • Discussion on the U.S.-China Strategic & Economic Dialogue
  • The Fifth Annual South China Sea Conference at CSIS

Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – June 25th, 2015”

Diplomacy changes, construction continues: New images of Mischief and Subi Reefs

June 18, 2015

amti.csis – On June 16, 2015, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang announced that “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He went on to note that after land reclamation on existing features was complete, China would continue to construct facilities on its new islands. As of June 17, AMTI assesses that two of China’s land reclamation projects are fully complete, three are nearly complete, and two are ongoing, with active land reclamation still taking place. The map below shows the current status of China’s Spratly building projects.

Tiếp tục đọc “Diplomacy changes, construction continues: New images of Mischief and Subi Reefs”

China’s land reclamation announcement: A change in message, not in policy

June 17, 2015

Q1: What has China announced about its land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands?

A1: On June 16, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang announcedthat “as planned, the land reclamation project of China’s construction on some stationed islands and reefs of the Nansha (Spratly) Islands will be completed in the upcoming days.” He noted that after land reclamation was complete, China would continue to construct facilities on its islands.

Kang indicated that China’s position on its island building remained largely consistent. He reiterated that “the construction activities on the Nansha islands and reefs fall within the scope of China’s sovereignty, and are lawful, reasonable, and justified.” Kang also restated that the artificial islands have defense purposes, as well as civilian purposes, including search and rescue, scientific research, ecological conservation, and fishing. Kang declined to offerspecific details on which islands were close to complete. Tiếp tục đọc “China’s land reclamation announcement: A change in message, not in policy”

Massive island-building and international law

June 15, 2015

AMTI. CSIS – Within the short span of a year, China’s rapid construction of artificial islands in the disputed Spratlys has radically changed the geographical and security landscapes in the South China Sea.

This island construction has so far created over eight million square metres of real estate in the open sea, outstripping other countries’ reclamation activities by far, and shows no sign of abating. Hundreds of millions of tons of sand and coral have been dredged from the seabed and dumped atop fragile coral reefs that are vital components of the maritime ecology. Marine experts expect that the work has already caused disastrous and essentially irreversible environmental impacts. Tiếp tục đọc “Massive island-building and international law”

Southeast Asia’s Geopolitical Centrality and the U.S.-Japan Alliance

JUN 11, 2015

CSIS – Building on a careful analysis of Southeast Asia’s recent history, politics, economics, and place within the Asia Pacific, this report looks forward two decades to anticipate the development of trends in the region and how they will impact the U.S.-Japan alliance. How will Southeast Asian states come to grips with the political and economic rise of China? How will they modernize their military forces and security relationships, and what role can the United States and Japan play? How will they manage their disputes in the South China Sea, and how will they pursue greater regional integration? These questions will prove critical in understanding Southeast Asia’s role in the Asia Pacific, and in the U.S.-Japan alliance, in the decades ahead.

Publisher CSIS/Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN 978-1-4422-4086-5 (pb); 978-1-4422-4087-2 (eBook)

 

 

Civil society activist beaten by plainclothes police officers; prominent blogger released

CSIS

Civil society activist beaten by plainclothes police officers; prominent blogger released.
Civil society activist Pham Thanh Nghien was beaten by plainclothes police officers on June 2 in front of her home outside Hanoi. Blogger Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, who was traveling to Nghien’s home with two other bloggers for a meeting, said that plainclothes police officers beat Nghien in order to force Quynh and the other bloggers to leave, according to Radio Free Asia. Separately, authorities on May 26 released well-known blogger Truong Duy Nhat, who was sentenced to two years in jail for “abusing democratic freedoms.”

Australia Has a Larger Role to Play in the South China Sea

by  • June 4, 2015

Both the tone and substance of South China Sea discussions in Australian policy circles has undergone an important shift in recent months. What was previously a second-tier security concern to be watched closely and engaged diplomatically, but at a safe distance, has become a heated discussion about concrete responses. Australian policymakers are as concerned as anyone about China’s breakneck land reclamation in the Spratly Islands and the threats, both legal and military, they pose to the global commons. Australian officials and thinkers are seriously considering options to contest Chinese assertiveness, in tandem with the United States and other partners, which would have seemed distant possibilities a year ago. Tiếp tục đọc “Australia Has a Larger Role to Play in the South China Sea”

CSIS – Southeast Asia Sit-Rep June 4, 2015

CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP

The SIT-REP gives you links to all of CSIS Southeast Asia’s (@SoutheastAsiaDC) best updates and programs in a five minute read. This issue includes testimony about China-Vietnam relations, extensive post-Shangri-La Dialogue blog and podcast coverage, a pair of upcoming Banyan Tree Leadership Forums, and much more. Links will take you to the full publications, multimedia, or to registration for upcoming programs when available. To jump to a section, select one of the following:

Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS – Southeast Asia Sit-Rep June 4, 2015”

Sabah’s Shadow on the South China Sea

• By Jay L. Batongbacal I May 27, 2015

cogitasia – Philippine media went into a minor frenzy with the startling news that Manila purportedly offered Kuala Lumpur a quid pro quo in March: dropping the Philippine claim to North Borneo (Malaysia’s Sabah State) in exchange for Malaysian support for Manila’s arbitration case over the South China Sea. The media reports were quickly denied by the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs, which noted the total absence of any reference to such a deal in the note that set off the firestorm. Recently, President Benigno Aquino III had to reiterate that his administration was not dropping the claim, prompting Malaysia to summon the Philippine Charge d’Affaires. Tiếp tục đọc “Sabah’s Shadow on the South China Sea”

Enter Science & China’s Blue Economy in the South China Sea’s Policy Discussion

by  • June 2, 2015 •

By James Borton

Source: Vladimir Varfolomeev's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

cogitasia – The role of marine science and the emergence of China’s blue economy helped frame a new narrative on the South China Sea’s policy debate, as shown at a CSIS discussion on May 21titled “The Convergence of Marine Science and Geopolitics in the South China Sea.” Two of the panelists John McManus from the University of Miami’s Rosentiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science and Kathleen Walsh from the U.S. Naval War College agree that the South China Sea is not simply a sovereignty dispute but is likely to be recognized as one of the most significant environmental issues of the 21st century. Tiếp tục đọc “Enter Science & China’s Blue Economy in the South China Sea’s Policy Discussion”