Simon Long
Mon Nov 02 2015

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ASIA
East Asia is the scene for an unprecedented experiment in international relations. Never before have so many countries been so intertwined economically with one big power (China) while looking to another (America) as the ultimate guarantor of their security. So far the experiment has seemed a stunning success. For 40 years, America has not just kept the peace; it has enabled a continental economic boom. And the biggest beneficiary of that has been China. Yet that order is now fraying, as China chafes under what it sees as an American-led world order that is impeding its rise and its natural regional predominance. In 2016 the tensions that this fraying produces may become acute, posing awkward questions for other countries in Asia.

When Xi Jinping, China’s president, paid his first state visit to America in September 2015, the two countries were already at odds on a number of issues: the perennial bugbears such as China’s human-rights record and repression in Tibet and Xinjiang; and new concerns over cyber-security and the militarisation of space. The visit was marked, as always, by an effort to stress areas of co-operation, for example on climate change; but the two big powers are now rivals in a growing number of spheres. Asia is where the rivalry is most intense. It will become more so in 2016 for three main reasons.
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