Nonproliferation and Nuclear Energy: The Case of Vietnam

Is Vietnam diverting its civilian know-how to create an indigenous nuclear weapons program? Not yet, says the CSS’ Oliver Thränert, but increased tensions or overt conflict with China could lead Hanoi to develop its own nuclear deterrent.

By Oliver Thränert for Center for Security Studies (CSS)

ISN – For many years, the international nuclear non-proliferation regime has been in deep crisis. This became apparent most recently when the ninth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) in May 2015 ended without a common final document. At the same time, a number of threshold countries are planning to begin using nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. In a time of increasing international tensions, some of them might build on know-how acquired through their civilian programs to safeguard their national security needs through a nuclear weapons program in the near future. Vietnam is an interesting case in point. Irrespective of certain delays in the development of its peaceful nuclear program, the country has progressed quite far. At the same time, it is engaged in an increasingly precarious conflict with its main neighbor, nuclear-armed China. Currently, there are no signs of a Vietnamese nuclear weapons program. In the framework of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the country is a model of transparency and cooperation. But it is uncertain whether this will always remain the case. On the contrary, Hanoi might change its policy if the conflict with China should come to a head while the NPT continues to be weakened.

Vietnam’s strategic situation

Vietnam might complete its first nuclear reactor within a few years, ahead of ambitious neighbors such as Indonesia or Malaysia. The country’s main motivations are its growing energy requirements and the desire to diversify its energy sources. Considerations of prestige may also be a factor. As a threshold nation, Vietnam aims to achieve the same level as Asia’s developed nations. With a view to China, Hanoi probably also wishes to demonstrate the high level of global confidence that the country enjoys in sensitive matters of security policy. Tiếp tục đọc “Nonproliferation and Nuclear Energy: The Case of Vietnam”

Obama’s budget and hypocrisy on nukes

thehill – Earlier this month, President Obama released a budget proposal for 2017, which includes billions of dollars for controversial modernization programs for each leg of the nuclear triad — land-based, sea-based and aircraft missiles — and cuts to nuclear nonproliferation programs. This is troubling for a number of reasons, never mind the irony that this spending spree comes from the same man who delivered a 2009 speech in Prague pledging “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”

Of top concern are requests to allocate $95.6 million for the research and development of a new nuclear-tipped cruise missile, replacing the current air-launched cruise missile whose mission has long-since faded into irrelevance. The plan would also nearly double our cruise missile collection to around 1,000 missiles. These additions have been denounced by a chorus of military experts and former national security advisors, including the father of the nuclear-armed cruise missile, former Secretary of Defense William Perry.

Other nuclear modernization programs in the budget request include:

  • $25.7 million for a nuclear capability for the new F-35A Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.
  • $113.9 million for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, a replacement for the current Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile system.
  • $137.9 million for a new guided tail-kit for the B61 tactical nuclear weapon life-extension program.
  • $1.36 billion for the Long-Range Strike Bomber, which is planned to replace the current B-52 and B-2 bomber aircraft.

Tiếp tục đọc “Obama’s budget and hypocrisy on nukes”

The UK-China Civilian Nuclear Agreement

Photo courtesy of Michael Lowell from https://www.flickr.com/photos/pookieevans/849683393/in/photolist-abyFoE-abvK2R-7pSuwy-df7tX6-7T7vtd-e3ghoR-5j74ft-5j7492-5j74mF-7V4Eta-58furn-5E1hm-33bn7z-o2HeXv-9a1bGf-7YgbNu-3gTpf-aDepcL-2i5RgF-rgW7pq-ryoHvF-7CjyDW-
By Jane Nakano, Michelle Melton Oct 23, 2015

This week, Xi Jinping made his first visit to the United Kingdom as the president of the People’s Republic of China. Both governments hope that the visit will inaugurate a “golden era” of trade relations. President Xi’s visit highlights the budding cooperation between the two countries in the area of civilian nuclear energy. Among the roughly £30 billion in deals inked between the two countries was a Chinese commitment to partially fund the first nuclear plant to be built in the United Kingdom since 1995 and the first new nuclear plant in the European Union since the 2011 Fukushima accident. The announcement during Xi’s visit of an agreement to allow substantial Chinese participation in the UK civil nuclear program signifies a new era for China’s nuclear export program and perhaps for the global nuclear industry. It also provides fodder for ongoing debates about the costs and benefits of using nuclear power to address climate change and the national security implications of allowing foreign investment in critical infrastructure. We outline the scope of nuclear cooperation, explain the key factors driving the deal, and discuss the potential implications for the global nuclear industry. Tiếp tục đọc “The UK-China Civilian Nuclear Agreement”