Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation is real but limited – and should not distract from the broader strategic challenges each country poses individually. While the partnership merits attention, some aspects are more symbolic than substantive, with Russia ultimately controlling the pace and direction.
Media narratives often highlight the growing alignment between China and Russia in the Arctic and the potential threat this poses to other states. Yet the partnership remains constrained by diverging priorities, Russia’s wariness of Chinese influence, and China’s reluctance to expose itself to sanctions or engage in risky ventures.
At the same time Russia’s increasing dependence on China since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has given Beijing opportunities to pursue deeper access to the Russian Arctic on its own terms and in areas that align with its long-term objectives. Rather than engaging broadly, China is selective in how and where it invests or participates – a dynamic that could intensify underlying frictions between the two even as global geopolitical shifts continue to draw them closer in the region.
In 416 BC, the city-state of Athens was in a prolonged conflict with Sparta, its archrival. For years, Athens had enjoyed comparative advantage over Sparta, particularly alliances and mutual defense pacts with smaller city-states known as the Delian League. By 416 BC, the Delian League had been in place for nearly 70 years, roughly the same as NATO, the modern equivalent of a prolonged and successful mutual defense alliance.
That was also the year that Athens came to view the Mediterranean island of Melos as vital for its strategic position. Melos had no military of its own, but it sat geographically at the intersection of maritime routes that helped both protect and project Athenian power. The island had long claimed neutrality, but for Athens, that would no longer suffice.
When an Athenian delegation demanded that Melos become a part of Athens, the Melians refused and appealed to Athenian traditions of logic and justice to work out a compromise. The Athenians responded with a famous line about power: “You know as well as we do that right, as the world goes, is only a question between equals in power — while the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.”
China dominates global rare earth mining, but undeveloped reserves elsewhere could reshape future supply chains.
Greenland holds an estimated 1.5 million metric tons of rare earth reserves despite having no commercial production.
U.S. President Donald Trump has once again put Greenland at the center of global attention.
His renewed threat to assert U.S. control over the Arctic territory has drawn sharp reactions from European leaders and Denmark, which governs Greenland as an autonomous territory.
While the island’s strategic location is often cited, another underlying motivation is increasingly tied to its vast mineral potential. In particular, Greenland’s rare earth reserves have become a focal point in a world racing to secure critical resources.
This visualization compares rare earth mine production and reserves across countries, placing Greenland’s untapped resources in a global context.
China remains the backbone of the global rare earth market. In 2024, it produced roughly 270,000 metric tons, accounting for well over half of global output.
China also controls the largest reserves, estimated at 44 million metric tons. This combination of scale and integration gives Beijing significant leverage over industries ranging from electric vehicles to defense systems.
Country
Reserves (Metric Tons)
Rare Earth Production 2024 (Metric Tons)
🇨🇳 China
44.0M
270,000
🇧🇷 Brazil
21.0M
20
🇮🇳 India
6.9M
2,900
🇦🇺 Australia
5.7M
13,000
🇷🇺 Russia
3.8M
2,500
🇻🇳 Vietnam
3.5M
300
🇺🇸 United States
1.9M
45,000
🇬🇱 Greenland
1.5M
0
🇹🇿 Tanzania
890K
0
🇿🇦 South Africa
860K
0
🇨🇦 Canada
830K
0
🇹🇭 Thailand
4.5K
13,000
🇲🇲 Myanmar
0
31,000
🇲🇬 Madagascar
0
2,000
🇲🇾 Malaysia
0
130
🇳🇬 Nigeria
0
13,000
🌍 Other
0
1,100
🌐 World total (rounded)
>90,000,000
390,000
Large Reserves, Limited Production Elsewhere
Outside China, many countries with sizable reserves play only a minor role in production.
Brazil holds an estimated 21 million metric tons of rare earth reserves yet produces almost nothing today. India, Russia, and Vietnam show similar patterns.
Why Greenland Matters
Greenland’s estimated 1.5 million metric tons of rare earth reserves exceed those of countries like Canada and South Africa. Yet the island has never had commercial rare earth production.
Environmental protections, infrastructure constraints, and local political opposition have slowed development. Still, as supply chain security becomes a priority for major economies, Greenland’s position is becoming harder to ignore.
Trump’s interest in Greenland is driven by more than symbolism. Rare earths are essential for advanced manufacturing, clean energy technologies, and military hardware. With China firmly entrenched as the dominant supplier, policymakers in Washington are increasingly focused on alternative sources.
TTCT – Hồi năm 2019, khi tổng thống Mỹ lúc đó là Donald Trump hỏi mua hòn đảo khổng lồ ở Bắc Cực Greenland từ Đan Mạch, ông đã bị chê là vô duyên và lố bịch. Nhưng giờ, khi cuộc bầu cử sớm sắp diễn ra ở đấy – chính quyền Greenland sụp đổ vì tranh cãi liên quan tới tài nguyên đất hiếm – xem chừng ông Trump đã nhìn xa trông rộng.
Cuộc bầu cử ở Greenland, với tổng dân số chỉ hơn 56.000 người, dự kiến diễn ra vào ngày 6-4, và chỉ hơn một tháng sau sẽ là cột mốc trọng đại khác – 300 năm ngày vùng đất này trở thành lãnh thổ của Đan Mạch. Đầu cua tai nheo cũng là từ đó: ở đây có một phe đang đòi độc lập.
Dân Greenland biểu tình phản đối một dự án khai khoáng. Ảnh: ejatlas.org
CVD 