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CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Oct 29, 2015

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Seizing the Moment: Preparing for Obama’s Trip to Manila

By Ernest Z. Bower (@BowerCSIS), Senior Adviser and Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), and Conor Cronin, Research Associate, CSIS

October 29, 2015

For the first time in anyone’s memory, foreign policy and national security are poised to figure as major issues in the Philippine presidential election, scheduled for May 2016. Recent polls show Filipinos are worried about China and its aggressive stance in the South China Sea. They also fear that economic dependence on China could be leveraged to force concessions on the Philippines’ sovereignty. These are not unreasonable views, given that Chinese vessels now occupy Scarborough Shoal, just 140 miles from the Philippines’ northern Luzon Island, and that China’s nine-dash line nearly intersects with the Philippines’ Palawan Province. Filipinos are demanding that their leadership establish a credible defense posture for the country. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Oct 29, 2015” →

CSIS: Vietnam Eyes Greater International Integration— & That’s Good News for the United States

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by  • October 15, 2015 •

By Phuong Nguyen

Street in the business district of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Source: Jo.sau's flickr photostream, used under a creative commons license.

For the first time since Vietnam opened up to the world in the late 1980s, the country’s trajectory could shape the future geopolitics of Southeast Asia in significant ways. What that trajectory ought to look like has been a topic of intense discussions among Vietnamese leaders in recent months, as Vietnam gears up for the twelfth Communist Party Congress, expected to take place in early 2016. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Vietnam Eyes Greater International Integration— & That’s Good News for the United States” →

CSIS: Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Oct. 22, 2015

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP

The SIT-REP gives you links to all of CSIS Southeast Asia’s (@SoutheastAsiaDC) best updates and programs in a five minute read. This issue includes analyses of Vietnam’s upcoming Communist Party congress, politicial issues in Myanmar’s November elections, the uncertain fate awaiting the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law in the Philippines, and a discussion with Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop, and much more. Links will take you to the full publications, multimedia, or to registration for upcoming programs when available. To jump to a section, select one of the following:

Commentaries

Deep insight into developments that move the dial

“Vietnam Eyes Greater International Integration—and That’s Good News For The United States,” by Phuong Nguyen (@PNguyen_DC)
For the first time since Vietnam opened up to the world in the late 1980s, the country’s trajectory could shape the future geopolitics of Southeast Asia in significant ways. What that trajectory ought to look like has been a topic of intense discussions among Vietnamese leaders in recent months, as Vietnam gears up for the twelfth Communist Party Congress, expected to take place in early 2016… Read more >>

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The CSIS Asia blog features insights on policy around the Asia Pacific

Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Oct. 22, 2015” →

ASEAN can survive great-power rivalry in Asia

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4 October 2015
Author: Amitav Acharya, American University
Eastasiaforum – Pundits and policymakers increasingly see changing great-power politics in Asia as a challenge to ASEAN. China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, the US ‘rebalancing’ strategy, Japan’s moves to reinterpret its constitution, and India’s growing military presence and assertive diplomacy all press upon ASEAN’s choices in the region.A satellite image, issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank, showing an airstrip under construction at Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands. (Photo: AFP)Some argue that ASEAN is both toothless and clueless in responding to these changes. Seen as ‘talk shops’, ASEAN’s regional institutions — the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and the East Asian Summit (EAS) — might have been sufficient when great-power relations were less volatile right after the Cold War, but they have outlived their usefulness. ‘ASEAN centrality’, and even its very survival, is being written off. Tiếp tục đọc “ASEAN can survive great-power rivalry in Asia” →

CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Oct 1, 2015

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Washington Debut: A Strategic Jokowi?

By Ernest Z. Bower (@BowerCSIS), Senior Adviser and Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies (@SoutheastAsiaDC), CSIS

October 1, 2015

Indonesian president Joko (Jokowi) Widodo will make his debut in Washington as president of the world’s fourth-largest country from October 26 to 28. Following recent trips to the United States by President Xi Jingping of China and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, the scene is set for Jokowi to seize the occasion to tell the world what Indonesia’s role will be and demonstrate his strategic thrust as a leader. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: Southeast Asia from Scott Circle – Oct 1, 2015” →

CSIS Southeast Asia Sit-Rep Sept 24, 2015

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CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP

The SIT-REP gives you links to all of CSIS Southeast Asia’s (@SoutheastAsiaDC) best updates and programs in a five minute read. This issue includes analysis of Malcolm Turnbull’s ouster of Tony Abbott as Australian prime minister, a look at lessons from Singapore’s recent general election, the third annual Asian Architecture Conference @ CSIS, and much more. Links will take you to the full publications, multimedia, or to registration for upcoming programs when available. To jump to a section, select one of the following:

Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS Southeast Asia Sit-Rep Sept 24, 2015” →

CSIS: AMTI Brief, Sept. 15, 2015

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Spratlys Airstrip Update: Is Mischief Reef Next?

Potential New Runway Presents New Headaches
by Greg Poling
Over the last year, the world has watched as China has gone from one airfield in the South China Sea to potentially four. Facilities on Woody Island in the Paracels already gave China the ability to monitor the northern South China Sea. Earlier this year, the addition of an airfield on Fiery Cross Reef provided a more southerly runway capable of handling most if not all Chinese military aircraft. And in June, satellite photos indicated that China was preparing to lay down another runway at Subi Reef. New photos taken on September 3 show grading work at Subi, providing further evidence that runway construction there is planned. Meanwhile work at the Fiery Cross airfield is well advanced, with China recently laying down paint. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: AMTI Brief, Sept. 15, 2015” →

China Building Third Airstrip in South China Sea, US Expert Warns

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Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still file image from video taken by a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft provided by the United States Navy

China Building Third Airstrip in South China Sea, US Expert Warns

© REUTERS/ U.S. Navy/Handout via Reuters
Asia & Pacific

04:00 15.09.2015(updated 11:19 15.09.2015)
China appears to be building a third airstrip in contested territory in the South China Sea, a US expert said on Monday, citing satellite photographs taken last week.

The photos – taken for Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) – show construction on Mischief Reef, one of the artificial islands China has built in the Spratly archipelago, Reuters reported.

The images show infrastructure matching similar work China has done on two other reefs, said Greg Poling, director of CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI). Tiếp tục đọc “China Building Third Airstrip in South China Sea, US Expert Warns” →

CSIS: AMTI Brief, Sept. 10, 2015

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Decoding China’s Maritime Decisionmaking
This issue of AMTI explores China’s maritime policymaking process by breaking down the organizational structure of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and the State, and attempting to shed light on how decisions are reached. Watch CSIS Senior Adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies Christopher K. Johnson describe developments in maritime policymaking and the drivers behind recent activities in the East and South China Seas. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: AMTI Brief, Sept. 10, 2015” →

CSIS: AMTI Brief, sept. 12, 2015

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Introducing our New AMTI Director:
Greg Poling
By Michael J. Green

Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair, CSIS
Chairman of the Editorial Board, AMTI

CSIS is proud to announce our first “hail and farewell” at AMTI. We began in 2013 with an idea for a multimedia platform to promote transparency in maritime Asia and were extremely fortunate to recruit Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper to help design and implement the project. Under Mira’s leadership, AMTI has established a strong following among officials, scholars and journalists. It is no small feat building a program that is both authoritative and dynamic in such a short time, and we are all grateful to Mira for what she has achieved. We asked Mira to reflect on her work with AMTI, and have featured her insightful essay below. We look forward to her future contributions to the field as she pursues new scholarship and policy innovation in this next phase of her career. Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS: AMTI Brief, sept. 12, 2015” →

CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Aug. 27, 2015

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CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP

The SIT-REP gives you links to all of CSIS Southeast Asia’s (@SoutheastAsiaDC) best updates and programs in a five minute read. This issue includes a report on the future of the U.S.-Philippine alliance, analysis of some challenges facing Myanmar ahead of its elections, profiles of two of Indonesia’s newest cabinet members, and much more. Links will take you to the full publications, multimedia, or to registration for upcoming programs when available. To jump to a section, select one of the following: Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Aug. 27, 2015” →

CSIS AMTI Brief – August 13, 2015

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AMTI Brief – August 13, 2015

CSIS
Remembering World War II in Maritime Asia
On August 15, 2015, the world observes the 70th anniversary of the end of the Second World War in the Pacific Theater. This edition of AMTI commemorates the conclusion of the conflict and its legacy for maritime Asia. Read special features on the strategic role that maritime Asia played for the victorious allies, including the United States, European powers, and the Soviet Union, as the war ended. Below, view 15 maps that help to explain why the Pacific Theater looked the way it did in August 1945, and why the conclusion of the conflict continues to shape geopolitics in East Asia today. [Read On]
 

Expert Analysis
August 1945: A Snapshot of American Maritime Strategy in the Pacific
When Japan surrendered 70 years ago this month, the United States stood supreme in the Pacific.  Only the Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy had surface combatants that could roam freely from the Indian Ocean to the East China Sea and these remained a fraction of the massive “Big Blue Fleet” the U.S. Navy had deployed.  With the exception of Taiwan, parts of the Dutch East Indies, the Japanese archipelago and a smattering of isolated South Pacific atolls, the entire offshore island chain in the Western Pacific was under the control of the United States and its allies. [Read more from Michael Green] 
 


Calm and Storm: the South China Sea after the Second World War
In the early hours of 4 February 1945 two Australian commandos, Alex Chew and Bill Jinkins, paddled away from an American submarine, the USS Pargo, and landed on Woody Island in the Paracels. In the weeks beforehand, American airmen had reported seeing a French tricolour flying on the island and ‘Z Force’ had been tasked to investigate. Chew and Jinkins discovered there were indeed French people on the island but also Japanese sailors and so retreated to the sub. The Pargo surfaced and shelled the buildings for several minutes. The first ‘Battle of the Paracels’ was a one-sided affair. [Read more from Bill Hayton]

The Legacy of the Soviet Offensives of August 1945
The Second World War was an unparalleled calamity for the Soviet Union. As many as 27 million Soviet soldiers and civilians died as a result of the conflict that started with the German invasion of Poland in September 1939 and ended with the Japanese surrender in August 1945. Consumed by this existential struggle along its western border, the Soviet Union was a comparatively minor factor in the Pacific War until the very end. Yet Moscow’s timely intervention in the war against Japan allowed it to expand its influence along the Pacific Rim. With the breakdown of Allied unity soon heralding the onset of the Cold War, Soviet gains in Asia also left a legacy of division and confrontation, some of which endure into the present. [Read more from Jeff Mankoff]

Featured Maps

Japanese Centrifugal Offensive, December 1941
In December 1941, Japan’s Centrifugal Offensive was launched to gain control of the Western colonies in Southeast Asia and create a defensive perimeter to protect against an Allied offensive. It succeeded in capturing most U.S., British, and Dutch held territory. By the end of February 1942, Tokyo had secured all Western colonial possessions with the exception of part of New Guinea and Macau.

 

Estimated Japanese Strength on or about August 15, 1945
As fighting concluded in the Pacific Theater, an estimated 4.9 million Japanese soldiers remained stationed throughout the Pacific Islands and Asia.

 

Areas Under Allied and Japanese Control, August 15, 1945
At the conclusion of the war, Japan was still extended throughout the Pacific as Allied offensives continued to chip away at its holdings.

 

Territorial Clauses of the Japanese Peace Treaty

Attached to the San Francisco Peace Treaty of 1951, this map illustrates the territory Japan relinquished in the postwar settlement. Chapter II, Articles 2 and 3 of the Treaty are included in small print indicating the treaty’s territorial clauses with relevant island groups marked as shown. These include the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories, the Ryukyu Islands (including the Senkakus), and the Spratly and Paracel Islands.

 

CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Aug 13, 2015

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP

The SIT-REP gives you links to all of CSIS Southeast Asia’s (@SoutheastAsiaDC) best updates and programs in a five minute read. This issue includes recommendations for U.S. policymakers to grapple with the South China Sea, a series of blog posts on Myanmar’s roiling politics, a profile of one of Malaysia foremost moderate Islamic leaders, and much more. Links will take you to the full publications, multimedia, or to registration for upcoming programs when available. To jump to a section, select one of the following: Tiếp tục đọc “CSIS Southeast Asia SIT-REP, Aug 13, 2015” →

‘Chó sói’ Huawei và nguy cơ cho an ninh viễn thông Việt Nam – 5 kỳ

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ 1 bình luận

30/01/2015 10:51

(TNO) Trong khoảng 10 năm qua, Huawei, tập đoàn sản xuất thiết bị viễn thông hàng đầu của Trung Quốc đã bành trướng từ thị trường nội địa trở thành một thế lực toàn cầu dưới sự hậu thuẫn đắc lực của chính phủ Trung Quốc. Đây là điều không chỉ gây lo sợ cho các đối thủ sừng sỏ trên thương trường mà còn làm nhiều quốc gia quan ngại về những nguy cơ an ninh tiềm ẩn đối với mạng viễn thông toàn cầu.

'Chó sói' Huawei và nguy cơ cho an ninh viễn thông Việt Nam - ảnh 1Huawei bị cáo buộc là “cánh tay nối dài” của chính phủ và quân đội Trung Quốc – Ảnh: AFP

Nhiều cáo buộc cho rằng Huawei (cùng ZTE, một tập đoàn thiết bị viễn thông lớn khác của Trung Quốc) chính là những cánh tay nối tay của chính quyền và quân đội Trung Quốc nhằm theo dõi, đánh cắp thông tin trên toàn thế giới. Các thiết bị của Huawei, ZTE thậm chí còn được cho rằng có thể cho phép Trung Quốc can thiệp thậm chí vô hiệu hóa hệ thống viễn thông, của một quốc gia nào đó trong trường hợp xảy ra xung đột. Tiếp tục đọc “‘Chó sói’ Huawei và nguy cơ cho an ninh viễn thông Việt Nam – 5 kỳ” →

Southeast Asia’s Real Security Concern

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by • July 31, 2015
By Zachary Abuza

A drought in the middle of monsoon season brought on by the El Niño effect has affected farmers across Southeast Asia, hampering economic growth and exacerbating political tensions between urban elites and farmers. Though rains have recently begun, reservoirs are at such low levels that they will not be refilled in a shortened season with average rainfall. A record level of paddy has gone unplanted, and where the fall crop has been planted, seedlings have withered in parched paddy. Tiếp tục đọc “Southeast Asia’s Real Security Concern” →