Thẻ: Asia economy

GLOBAL ECONOMY-Growing China downdraft chills Asia factory activity

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

* China factory activity remains in contraction territory

Japan, Vietnam PMI slumps as China slowdown hits

* South Korean exports contract at steepest pace in nearly 3 yrs

* Weak readings add pressure on central banks, China, for stimulus

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO, March 1 (Reuters) – Weak demand in China and growing global fallout from the Sino-U.S. trade war took a heavier toll on factories across much of Asia in February, business surveys showed on Friday.

Activity in China’s vast manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month, pointing to more strains on its major trading partners and raising questions over whether Beijing needs to do more to stabilise the slowing economy.

In many cases, business conditions were the worst Asian companies have faced since 2016, with demand weakening not only in China but globally. Tiếp tục đọc “GLOBAL ECONOMY-Growing China downdraft chills Asia factory activity” →

China’s high-speed train plans in Southeast Asia stumble

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Disagreements over costs and land procurement are adding years to schedules

asia.nikkei.com

YUKAKO ONO, Nikkei staff writer

Officials attend the groundbreaking ceremony of the rail project linking Bangkok and Nakhon Ratchasima, on Dec. 21 in Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand. (Photo by Yukako Ono).

NAKHON RATCHASIMA, Thailand Exports of high-speed railway systems by China to Southeast Asian nations are lagging behind schedule due to problems over cost sharing and delays in land procurement.

A China-led project in Thailand is finally about to get underway, two years after a groundbreaking ceremony for a part of the route. But the outlook for connecting the line with China’s planned pan-Asian railway network is still dim.

The situation is a matter of concern to China as high-speed railway exports represent a core of the Belt and Road Initiative to reinforce its relations with neighboring countries through infrastructure projects.

The Thai government on Dec. 21 held a groundbreaking ceremony for a 250km, 179 billion baht ($5.46 billion) high-speed rail project linking Bangkok and the northeastern Thai province of Nakhon Ratchasima. Tiếp tục đọc “China’s high-speed train plans in Southeast Asia stumble” →

Who are the future consumers of South-East Asia?

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Weforum_As business leaders convene for the Kuala Lumpur meeting of the World Economic Forum, they have many uncertainties to ponder, from the trajectory of China’s economy to whether the new ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) launched at the start of the year will vault South-East Asia up to a new level of economic dynamism.

Demographics and the granularity of growth needs to be part of their thinking. The question today is not so much where to find entire growth markets, but which specific demographic groups have the most potential?

Radical demographic shifts are transforming consumer markets around the world. In the past, market growth was fuelled largely by expanding populations; today, incomes are the force to reckon with.
Tiếp tục đọc “Who are the future consumers of South-East Asia?” →

The pattern of capital flows into Asia in the last decade

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này
By and . Posted June 21, 2016

The pattern of capital flows into Asia in the last decade

asiapathways-abdi: Looking at the varying patterns of the capital flows into Asia in the last decade, the period after the taper tantrum on 21 May 2013 until 31 October 2015 is of particular interest from both global and local perspectives. Globally, the wave of capital flows became more volatile due to various international factors: (i) the pace of monetary policy normalization in the United States (US), (ii) the slowdown in the People’s Republic of China, (iii) the slide in oil prices, and (iv) higher political uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions. Locally, the growth momentum in Asia slowed down due to weaker balance of payments, worsening external debt conditions, and reduction in real economic activity. Monetary policy in Asia therefore became more accommodative to support growth. This, in turn, lowered expected relative interest returns and caused capital to flow out of Asia. Moreover, the exchange rate return on investing in Asian assets, which previously had been a byproduct of investment, declined. This is because there was greater risk aversion on Asian assets and there was downward pressure on all emerging Asian currencies due to weaker economic fundamentals. Tiếp tục đọc “The pattern of capital flows into Asia in the last decade” →

A strong ASEAN+3 should embrace the IMF

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này
9 May 2016
Author: Ramon Pacheco Pardo, King’s College Londoneastasiaforum – ASEAN+3 (the ASEAN members plus China, South Korea and Japan) was born from the ashes of the Asian financial crisis and the IMF’s response to it. It’s no secret that displeasure — if not hostility — to the policy prescriptions suggested by the Washington-based institution was a key driver behind ASEAN+3. When the global financial crisis spurred the development of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) and the launch of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), it seemed that ASEAN+3 was finally setting up the structures to free itself from any future dependence on the IMF.But even as the ASEAN+3 grouping’s finance ministers and central bank governors gathered in Frankfurt for their 19th meeting a few days ago, it has become clear that ASEAN+3 needs to embrace the IMF if it is to transform into an essential feature of regional governance in East Asia. A strong ASEAN+3 should not be afraid to do so. Tiếp tục đọc “A strong ASEAN+3 should embrace the IMF” →

Reforming Electricity Reforms? Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Executive Summary

Anupama Sen* Rabindra Nepal** Tooraj Jamasb*** & Tooraj Jamasb

February 2016

After more than two decades of attempts at electricity sector reform, there is a strong case for assessing empirical evidence on its outcomes, particularly for developing countries. Electricity reform programmes , implemented through the ‘standard’ or ‘textbook’ model, have their foundations in standard microeconomic theory and are based on the rationale that restructuring towards greater competition can lead to higher efficiency, maximise economic welfare, and transfer surplus to consumers. In practice, this has not always been the case, even in the OECD economies which pioneered the standard model.

This paper investigates the outcomes of the standard model for developing countries, by applying instrumental variable regression techniques on an original and previously untested panel dataset covering 17 non – OECD developing Asian economies spanning 23 years. While there is some cross – country literature on the effects of electricity reforms in developed and developing economies, there has been no systematic attempt thus far to examine their technical, economic and welfare impacts whilst accounting for cross – country institutional differences, for non – OECD Asian developing economies.

This paper fills a gap in the literature in the following ways: First, to our knowledge, this paper is the first to empirically assess the impact of electricity reforms on non – OECD Asian countries as a whole. Second, it applies econometric techniques to a new panel data set on 17 non – OECD developing Asian economies, from 1990 – 2013, which allows for cross – country comparisons whilst controlling for differing institutional and political contexts. Third, it draws the link between electricity reform and sector (technical) performance, economic impacts, and welfare indicators, assuming a cumulative impact of reform. In contrast with the theoretical literature, our results show a tension between wider economic impacts and welfare impacts for consumers: namely, the variables that are associated with a positive effect on economic growth appear to be associated with a negative impact on welfare indicators. Tiếp tục đọc “Reforming Electricity Reforms? Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies” →