Global Risks Report 2025: Conflict, Environment and Disinformation Top Threats

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Reliefweb.int

Full report https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/

World Economic Forum, public.affairs@weforum.org

  • State-based armed conflict emerges as the top immediate risk for 2025, identified by nearly a quarter of respondents, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation globally.
  • Misinformation and disinformation lead the short-term risks and may fuel instability and undermine trust in governance, complicating the urgent need for cooperation to address shared crises.
  • Environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
  • Read the Global Risks Report 2025 here and join the conversation using #Risks25. Follow the Annual Meeting here and on social media using #WEF25

Geneva, Switzerland, 15 January 2025 – The 20th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, released today, reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress. While economic risks have less immediate prominence in this year’s survey results, they remain a concern, interconnected with societal and geopolitical tensions.

State-based armed conflict is identified as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly one-quarter of respondents ranking it as the most severe concern for the year ahead.

Misinformation and disinformation remain top short-term risks for the second consecutive year, underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations. Other leading short-term risks include extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber-espionage and warfare.

Environmental risks dominate the longer-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems and natural resources shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings. The fifth environmental risk in the top 10 is pollution, which is also perceived as a leading risk in the short term. Its sixth-place ranking in the short term reflects a growing recognition of the serious health and ecosystem impacts of a wide range of pollutants across air, water and land. Overall, extreme weather events were identified prominently as immediate, short-term and long-term risks.

The long-term landscape is also clouded by technological risks related to misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape” said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”

Fractured systems, fragile futures

The report, which draws on the views of over 900 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September and October 2024, paints a stark picture of the decade ahead. Respondents are far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term. Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate a turbulent or stormy global landscape by 2035, driven in particular by intensifying environmental, technological and societal challenges.

Over half of respondents expect some instability within two years, reflecting the widespread fracturing of international cooperation. Long-term projections signal even greater challenges as mechanisms for collaboration are expected to face mounting pressure. Societal risks such as inequality and societal polarization feature prominently in both short- and long-term risk rankings. Rising concerns about illicit economic activity, mounting debt burdens and the concentration of strategic resources highlight vulnerabilities that could destabilize the global economy in the coming years. All these issues risk exacerbating domestic instability and eroding trust in governance, further complicating efforts to address global challenges.

All 33 risks in the ranking increase in severity score over the longer term, reflecting respondents’ concerns about the heightened frequency or intensity of these risks as the next decade unfolds.

“From conflicts to climate change, we are facing interconnected crises that demand coordinated, collective action,” says Mark Elsner, Head of the Global Risks Initiative, World Economic Forum. “Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and foster cooperation are urgently needed. The consequences of inaction could be felt for generations to come.”

A decisive decade: Collaboration as the key to stability

As divisions deepen and fragmentation reshapes geopolitical and economic landscapes, the need for effective global cooperation has never been more urgent. Yet, with 64% of experts anticipating a fragmented global order marked by competition among middle and great powers, multilateralism faces significant strain.

However, turning inward is not a viable solution. The decade ahead presents a pivotal moment for leaders to navigate complex, interconnected risks and address the limitations of existing governance structures. To prevent a downward spiral of instability – and instead rebuild trust, enhance resilience, and secure a sustainable and inclusive future for all – nations should prioritize dialogue, strengthen international ties and foster conditions for renewed collaboration.

Links to other visuals and graphics

– Current Risk Landscape – 2025

– Global risks ranked by severity- 2 years

– Global Risks ranked by severity – 10 years

– Short and long-term global outlook

– Global risks landscape an interconnections map

About the Global Risks Report
The Global Risks Report is the World Economic Forum’s flagship publication on global risks, now in its 20th edition. Produced by the Global Risks Initiative at the Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society, the report leverages insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey, which draws on the views of over 900 global leaders across business, government, academia and civil society. The report identifies and analyses the most pressing risks across immediate, short- and long-term horizons, aiming to equip leaders with foresight to address emerging challenges. It serves as a key resource for understanding the evolving global risk landscape and fostering collective action to build a more resilient future.

For more information, visit the Global Risks Initiative and read the full report here.

Hanoi becomes world’s most polluted city

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

South China Morning Post – 13-2-2025

The Vietnamese capital Hanoi has taken the top spot for air pollution among global cities, according to the Air Quality Index (AQI) operated by leading air-quality technology company IQAir on February 12, 2025. Persistent smog has residents and tourists alike worried about whether the hazardous air may be causing long-term damage to human health.

Bhutan at the frontier of the climate crisis | 101 East Documentary

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Al Jazeera English – 6-2-2025

The small Himalayan nation of Bhutan was the world’s first carbon-negative country.

With 70 % of its land covered by forests, it absorbs three times more carbon dioxide than it emits.

The environment is protected by the country’s constitution, and it is illegal to cut down trees without a permit.

Bhutan’s fast-flowing rivers provide the country with clean energy, making it almost entirely powered by hydroelectricity.

However, climate change and global warming are drying up rivers and threatening the country’s power supply.

In the high mountains, rising temperatures are causing glacial lakes to melt, increasing the risk of floods and other natural disasters.

101 visits Bhutan, a country at the frontier of climate change.

Tóm tắt tình hình Biển Đông năm 2024

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Nghiên cứu Quốc tế – 03/02/2025 – 17:24

Những diễn biến lớn ở Biển Đông trong năm 2024 không báo hiệu điều tốt lành cho năm 2025.

Nguồn: Carl Thayer, “The State of the South China Sea: Coercion at Sea, Slow Progress on a Code of Conduct,” The Diplomat, 27/01/2025

Biên dịch: Nguyễn Thị Kim Phụng

Có bốn diễn biến chính định hình môi trường an ninh ở Biển Đông năm 2024: (1) Trung Quốc gia tăng hành vi cưỡng ép đối với tàu thuyền và máy bay của hải quân Philippines; (2) Philippines thông qua chiến lược phòng thủ biển mới; (3) Việt Nam tăng cường hoạt động xây dựng tại quần đảo Trường Sa; và (4) đàm phán về Bộ Quy tắc Ứng xử (COC) tiến triển chậm chạp.
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The National Security Imperative of USAID’s Food Security Programs

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Climateandsecurity.org

As of today, the Trump Administration has paused two essential US global food security initiatives, Feed the Future and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Created in reaction to the 2007-8 global food crisis and resulting instability, Feed the Future is a marquee US government food security program and tool for implementing the bipartisan Global Food Security Act, working in 20 countries to build a more resilient food system and supporting agricultural innovation at 17 US universities. Operating since 1985, FEWS NET provides rigorous analysis and forecasting of acute food insecurity to inform US and other humanitarian responses in 30 countries.

These programs make invaluable contributions to US national security and global stability. For example, Feed the Future builds resilience in five countries where the US National Intelligence Estimate on climate change assesses “building resilience…would probably be especially helpful in mitigating future risks to US interests.” In Central America, where drought during growing seasons has driven increased migration to the United States, Honduran Feed the Future beneficiaries report a 78% lower intent to migrate than the wider population. Meanwhile, FEWSNET’s data and analysis more quickly and efficiently direct US humanitarian support in reaction to conflict, economic shocks, and extreme weather, including in regions where the US military is deployed. 

Both programs have historically received consistent bipartisan support. Speaking at the launch of a new Feed the Future initiative last year, Senator John Boozman (R-AR) noted, “food security is national security.” Another Feed the Future supporter, Representative Tracey Mann (R-KS 1st District), has highlighted the value of his district’s Feed the Future Innovation Lab and stated that global food security programs have “an especially strong return on investment because they support American agriculture producers today, while greatly reducing the need for conflict or war-related dollars spent tomorrow” and are “a way to stop wars before they start.” As Executive Director of the World Food Program (2017-2023), former South Carolina Governor and Representative David Beasely testified to the Senate that “Investments in early warning systems like USAID’s Famine Early Warning System…allow humanitarian partners to project and respond in real time to potential emergencies….Without this capacity to forecast food insecurity, the cost of humanitarian intervention is much greater, both in dollars and lives lost.”

Last year, dozens of national security leaders, including the former commanders of Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Africa Command (AFRICOM), and Central Command (CENTCOM), endorsed the Council on Strategic Risks’ The Feeding Resilience Plan: Safeguarding US National Security at the Crossroads of Food and Climate Change. The report makes recommendations to US policymakers to better anticipate, prevent, and respond to food- and climate-driven national security threats, including to:

  • “Support long-term resilience building in vulnerable countries by sustaining and expanding Feed the Future,” noting it and similar programs “bolster vulnerable countries’ ability to withstand food shocks and forestall security threats or need for costly US assistance,” and
  • “Expand on USAID’s FEWS NET to include longer-term food insecurity warnings” and to have security and defense agencies better “integrate FEWSNET projections with processes to forecast political instability and conflict.”

Amid multiplying threats from instability, extreme weather, and geopolitical competition, these recommendations remain critical today, and highlight the important national security benefits of capabilities like Feed the Future and FEWS NET.  

USAID Provides Critical Benefits to US National Security

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Councilonstrategicrisks.org February 4, 2025

Center for Climate and Security, CSR Blog

The Trump Administration’s effort to try to shut down USAID and pause all foreign aid directly harms US national security, including by interrupting critical investments into resilience, adaptation, conflict prevention, and peacebuilding. In 2021, 79 senior national security leaders, including 8 retired 4-star generals and admirals, a former Director of National Intelligence, and a former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, signed the Challenge Accepted report, which argued that USAID investments in resilience and adaptation were critical to preventing instability and conflict and maintaining the US competitive edge with China. 

In the Indo-Pacific, USAID investments in disaster response and resilience pay dividends in strengthening relationships with allies and partners critical to that competition with China. Take Papua New Guinea as an example, where the US signed a new security pact in 2022, gaining exclusive access to develop and operate out of PNG bases. As Admiral Sam Locklear, former head of US INDOPACOM, and Erin Sikorsky, Director of CCS, wrote, “To sustain and maintain this presence, the United States will need access to reliable energy sources, clean, fresh water, and an economically vibrant, healthy local population.” Those functions are all supported by USAID efforts, such as the $3.5 million in disaster response funds the agency allocated to PNG in 2024. 

Meanwhile, in the Sahel region of Africa, USAID investments in climate adaptation and resilience help prevent extremist and terrorist group recruitment in communities affected by climate hazards.  For example, the Resilience in the Sahel Enhanced (RISE) program funded by USAID aims to break cycles of crisis in the region that enable groups like Boko Haram and ISIS-W to thrive. AS US AFRICOM Commander Michael Langley noted in testimony to Congress, international aid and development programs “attack the roots of terrorism and tyranny more than bullets and air strikes ever will.”

Further, as we outlined in this article last week, USAID programs focused on agriculture resilience have helped curb irregular migration from Honduras to the United States by helping local farmers weather risk and stay in the country. Upstream investments before crises hit cost significantly less than waiting until such challenges become full-blown crises. 

The bottom line is that addressing critical, bipartisan national security priorities requires a robust 3D approach to US foreign policy—defense, diplomacy, and development. Anything less is short-sighted and puts the country at risk. CCS Advisory Board member and former commander of US Central Command General Anthony Zinni (USMC, Ret.) has endorsed CCS recommendations to expand USAID work on climate and food security. He said as Co-Chair of the US Global Leadership Coalition’s National Security Advisory Council, “a freeze on all U.S. foreign assistance – at a time when our rivals are playing to win – takes the U.S. off the playing field and diminishes U.S. strength around the world.”

Online fraud leaves nobody safe – The vast and sophisticated global enterprise that is Scam Inc

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

economist.com

EDGAR MET Rita on LinkedIn. He worked for a Canadian software company, she was from Singapore and was with a large consultancy. They were just friends, but they chatted online all the time. One day Rita offered to teach him how to trade crypto. With her help, he made good money. So he raised his stake. However, after Edgar tried to cash out, it became clear that the crypto-trading site was a fake and that he had lost $78,000. Rita, it turned out, was a trafficked Filipina held prisoner in a compound in Myanmar.

In their different ways, Edgar and Rita were both victims of “pig-butchering”, the most lucrative scam in a global industry that steals over $500bn a year from victims all around the world. In “Scam Inc”, our eight-part podcast, The Economist investigates the crime, the criminals and the untold suffering they cause. “Scam Inc” is about the most significant change in transnational organised crime in decades.

Pig-butchering, or sha zhu pan, is Chinese criminal slang. First the scammers build a sty, with fake social-media profiles. Then they pick the pig, by identifying a target; raise the pig, by spending weeks or months building trust; cut the pig, by tempting them to invest; and butcher the pig by squeezing “every last drop of juice” from them, their family and friends.

The industry is growing fast. In Singapore scams have become the most common felony. The UN says that in 2023 the industry employed just under 250,000 people in Cambodia and Myanmar; another estimate puts the number of workers worldwide at 1.5m. In “Scam Inc” we report how a man in Minnesota lost $9.2m and how a bank in rural Kansas collapsed when its chief executive embezzled $47m to invest in crypto, under the tutelage of a fake online woman, called Bella. A part-time pastor, he also stole from his church.

Online scamming compares in size and scope to the illegal drug industry. Except that in many ways it is worse. One reason is that everyone becomes a potential target simply by going about their lives. Among the victims we identify are a neuroscience PhD and even relatives of FBI investigators whose job is to shut scams down. Operating manuals give people like Rita step-by-step instructions on how to manipulate their targets by preying on their emotions. It is a mistake to think romance is the only hook. Scammers target all human frailties: fear, loneliness, greed, grief and boredom.

The Countries with the Most Stateless People

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Visual Capitalist: By Arciom Antanovič  Featured Creator Article/Editing: Ryan Bellefontaine

Demographics

Mapped: The Countries with the Most Stateless People

A map of the countries with the most stateless persons in 2023, using data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

Mapped: The Countries with the Most Stateless People

This was originally posted on our Voronoi app. Download the app for free on iOS or Android and discover incredible data-driven charts from a variety of trusted sources.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) officially recognizes over 4.4 million people worldwide as stateless or of undetermined nationality. However, the actual number is likely much higher due to data collection challenges.

Stateless persons—those not recognized as citizens of any country—are deprived of fundamental rights such as education, healthcare, and employment, leaving them highly vulnerable to exploitation and discrimination. But which countries have the most?

This map, created by Arciom Antanovič, uses data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees to show the countries with the most stateless persons in 2023.

Bangladesh Tops the List

Certain countries are home to a disproportionate share of the world’s stateless people, often due to historical, social, and legal complexities.

Bangladesh comes in first with 971,898, followed by Côte d’Ivoire with 930,978, while Myanmar comes in third with 632,789.Search:

Country of AsylumStateless Persons
🇦🇱 Albania2,018
🇦🇷 Argentina22
🇦🇲 Armenia520
🇦🇺 Australia8,073
🇦🇹 Austria3,194
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan513
🇧🇩 Bangladesh971,898
🇧🇾 Belarus5,567
🇧🇪 Belgium936
🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina21

‹12345…10›

The raw number drops significantly after the fourth-placed Thailand with 587,132, as the fifth-placed Latvia only has 180,614.

The Causes of Statelessness

One of the primary drivers of statelessness is that in some countries, nationality can only be inherited through the father. When fathers are absent, the children may be left without a recognized nationality. This issue is particularly harmful for single mothers and families separated by conflict or migration.

Another significant cause of statelessness is racial and ethnic discrimination. Some governments use citizenship laws to exclude specific minority groups. In Myanmar, the Rohingya are a well-known example of such discrimination.

Geopolitical changes, such as shifting borders and citizenship revocation, also contribute to the issue. Governments sometimes strip individuals of their nationality as a punitive measure.

Amanda Nguyen on making history as first Vietnamese woman in space

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

CBS Mornings – 29-1-2025

Amanda Nguyen, a civil rights activist and astronaut, is set to become the first Vietnamese and Southeast Asian woman to travel to space. Nguyen, who fought for the rights of sexual assault survivors, shares her journey of resilience and activism, including her groundbreaking work on the Sexual Assault Survivors’ Bill of Rights, signed in 2016. She will travel to space with Blue Origin later this year.

Addicted: how the world got hooked on illicit drugs – and why we need to view this as a global threat like climate change

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

theconversation.com

It has taken decades for some to accept the devastating effects of climate change on our planet. Despite scientific evidence that was available years ago, many people were reluctant to make the connection between increasing use of fossil fuels, rising global temperatures and devastating weather events.

A key reason for this reluctance is the dislocation of cause and effect, both in time and geography. And here there are clear parallels with another deadly human activity that is causing increasing levels of suffering across the planet: the production, trafficking and consumption of illicit drugs. Here are some troubling “highlights” from the UN’s latest World Drugs Report:

Cocaine production is reaching record highs, with production climbing in Latin America coupled with drug use and markets expanding in Europe, Africa and Asia.

Synthetic drugs are also inflicting great harm on people and communities, caused by an increase in methamphetamine trafficking in south-west Asia, the near and Middle East and south-eastern Europe, and fentanyl overdoses in North America.

Meanwhile, the opium ban imposed by the de facto authorities in Afghanistan is having a significant impact on farmers’ livelihoods and incomes, necessitating a sustainable humanitarian response.

The report notes how organised criminal groups are “exploiting instability and gaps in the rule of law” to expand their trafficking operations, “while damaging fragile ecosystems and perpetuating other forms of organised crime such as human trafficking”.

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What’s happening in Myanmar?

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này


Al Jazeera English – 1- 2- 2025

Myanmar’s military regime is under pressure, four years after it seized back power in a coup. The military has lost significant territory and a patchwork of anti-military groups now control different parts of the country. What’s happening? Who are the groups fighting against the military? And could the regime actually fall? #AJStartHere with Sandra Gathmann explains

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Nói KHÔNG với kết hôn sớm – Bộ phim về tảo hôn

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Plan International Vietnam – 29-1-2024

Sanh chưa bao giờ nghĩ mình sẽ kết hôn khi mới chỉ lớp 9. Như bao bạn gái khác tại địa phương, cuộc sống sau hôn nhân của em có vô vàn trắc trở. Con của Sang không có giấy khai sinh, khi ốm đau cũng không đưa đi bệnh viện được mà chỉ ở nhà sử dụng thuốc Nam.

Nhưng Sanh vẫn tiếp tục hỗ trợ cho cộng đồng nơi em sinh sống. Là một nhà truyền thông tài ba, Sanh chia sẻ câu chuyện của mình tại những buổi sinh hoạt tại xã, tại trường để lan tỏa thông điệp nói không với tảo hôn và sống trọn vẹn với tuổi trẻ đáng giá của mình.

Trump’s tariffs are a $1.4 trillion gamble with the economy and prices

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này
Matt Egan

Analysis by Matt Egan, CNN

 5 minute read 

Updated 9:02 AM EST, Sun February 2, 2025

New York CNN — 

President Donald Trump is on the verge of hitting America’s three biggest trading partners with sweeping tariffs, a far more aggressive use of his favorite economic weapon than anything he did during his first term.

The looming import taxes on Mexico, Canada and China will be a major test of Trump’s unorthodox use of tariffs, which he’s described as “the greatest thing ever invented.”

It’s an enormous gamble, arguably a bigger one than any economic policy Trump enacted during his four-plus years in the White House. And this strategy has the potential to upend the thing many voters care about the most: the economy and the cost of living.

But Trump’s tariffs pose a big risk: They could backfire, lifting already-high consumer prices at the grocery store, rocking the shaky stock market or killing jobs in a full-blown trade war.

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