For over a century, economists have advocated taxing goods or services that impose greater costs on society than their price reflects. The idea isn’t to raise revenue, even if that’s a nifty benefit, but to discourage the overuse of things that cause unintended harm.
No bigger example of such unintended harm exists today than the air and climate pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels. The International Monetary Fund conservatively estimates that the price of such fuels fails to account for $4.2 trillion in air and climate pollution costs each year.
By imposing a fee on fossil fuels to fairly reflect those social costs, on the other hand, we can invoke the power of the market to efficiently limit their use. That’s why more than 3,600 economists call carbon fees “the most cost-effective lever to reduce carbon emissions at the scale and speed that is necessary.”
Public support for carbon fees would be stronger if everyone grasped how they work to discourage the production and consumption of goods that cause societal harm. Unfortunately, many people don’t get it.
“The expectation that carbon taxes do not work is one of the main reasons for their rejection by people in surveys and real ballots,” an international scholarly review concluded in 2018. For example, only 39 percent of respondents in one Swedish poll understood that a carbon tax “affects my own and other people’s behavior.”
By Nadeen Ebrahim and Laura Paddison, CNN Updated 12:08 PM EDT, Fri September 15, 2023
A satellite image shows the town of Derna in the aftermath of the floods in eastern Libya on Wednesday.Maxar Technologies/ReutersCNN —
It started with a bang at 3 a.m. Monday as the residents of Derna were sleeping. One dam burst, then a second, sending a huge wave of water gushing down through the mountains towards the coastal Libyan city, killing thousands as entire neighborhoods were swept into the sea.
More than 5,000 people are believed to have been killed with thousands more missing, though estimates from different Libyan officials and aid groups have varied and the toll is expected to rise.
The eastern Libyan city of Derna, the epicenter of the disaster, had a population of around 100,000 before the tragedy. Authorities say that at least 10,000 remain missing. CNN could not independently verify the figures.
Buildings, homes and infrastructure were “wiped out” when a 7-meter (23-foot) wave hit the city, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which said Thursday that dead bodies were now washing back up on shore.
But with thousands killed and many more still missing, there are questions as to why the storm that also hit Greece and other countries caused so much more devastation in Libya.
Experts say that apart from the strong storm itself, Libya’s catastrophe was greatly exacerbated by a lethal confluence of factors including aging, crumbling infrastructure, inadequate warnings and the impacts of the accelerating climate crisis.
A fire that broke out before midnight on September 12, 2023 in a Hanoi residential building took the lives of at least 56 people and injured dozens of others, according to authorities. The death toll made the fire Vietnam’s deadliest in 20 years.
This PacNet was developed as a part of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Next-Generation Leaders Dialogue to encourage creative thinking about how this vital partnership can be fostered. For the previous entries please click here, here, and here.
In April 2022, the United States launched its “Declaration for the Future of the Internet.” It asserts that human rights and democratic values must remain central to future technological development, innovation, and investment. Along with Japan, South Korea, and 58 other signatories, the United States argued that universal values should be embedded and enhanced at every stage of technological design, implementation, and diffusion. It’s time for the United States and its allies to match words with actions and ensure that developing countries have access to the resources they need to make that future a global reality.
This PacNet was developed as a part of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Next-Generation Leaders Dialogue to encourage creative thinking about how this vital partnership can be fostered. For previous entries please click here and here.
The AUKUS security agreement, cemented between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom in September 2021, enhances regional partnership in the Indo-Pacific by facilitating technology sharing, strengthened supply chains, and the acquisition of nuclear powered, conventionally armed submarines for Australia. The pact also creates a pathway to establish engagements focused on renewing, strengthening, and expanding military cooperation between AUKUS, South Korea, and Japan.
In 1945, members of the American “Deer Team,” part of the OSS, worked with Vietnamese guerrilla fighters to throw Japanese troops out of Indochina. As the war ended, the people of Vietnam looked to the United States to support their dreams of independence.
For most of World War II, the United States considered Vietnam to be a relatively unimportant French colony to someday be reclaimed from the Japanese; but America showed little interest in enlisting Vietnamese aid in that effort. All this changed rapidly in March 1945. Though the Japanese had invaded Vietnam in 1940, they allowed French colonial authorities to retain power so long as they controlled the Vietnamese and maintained the colony as a supply base for the Emperor’s army fighting in China. However, this also allowed the French to maintain covert Allied intelligence networks that supplied information to Allied personnel aiding the Chinese in their war against Japan. By early 1945, however, the war in the Pacific had shifted in favor of the Allies and the Japanese became increasingly suspicious of French activities in Vietnam. As a result, on March 10, 1945, Japanese forces launched Operation Meigo, a swift military takeover that effectively ended French colonial rule of Vietnam.
Members of the Deer Team providing instruction to the Vietnamese on use of the M-1 carbine, August 16, 1945. Photo by the National Archives and Records Administration.
With the loss of French control over the colony during Meigo, Allied intelligence networks operating in Vietnam collapsed. One such group, known as the “GBT,” had been providing information on weather conditions, the movement of Japanese troop trains and naval vessels, and on escape routes for downed Allied airmen to the 14th US Air Force stationed in China. Up to this point the GBT refused to employ Vietnamese as agents because the French claimed they were untrustworthy and were only interested in acquiring weapons to fight the French, not the Japanese. With their normally busy wires now silent, native agents became necessary.
Both the GBT and the US Office of Strategic Services (the OSS) reached out to a Vietnamese man who had drawn positive attention from the 14th Air Force the previous year when he escorted a downed American pilot out of Vietnam and into China. OSS agent Charles Fenn tracked down the man in question—Ho Chi Minh—describing him as articulate and charismatic, and both open and friendly to Americans. Fenn was convinced Ho would be an excellent intelligence agent and the group he represented, the Viet Minh, would also be valuable assets in the war against Japan. Soon thereafter, Ho Chi Minh became OSS agent “Lucius.”
Members of the Deer Team and Viet Minh at training camp. Allison Thomas stands in the center and is flanked on his left by Vo Nguyen Giap and on his right by Ho Chi Minh. Photo by the National Archives and Records Administration.
Study finds ‘direct evidence’ of polar amplification on continent as scientists warn of implications of ice loss
An Adelie penguin in Antarctica. The icy continent is heating faster than climate models had predicted, a study has found. Photograph: Reuters/Alamy
Antarctica is likely warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world and faster than climate change models are predicting, with potentially far-reaching implications for global sea level rise, according to a scientific study.
Scientists analysed 78 Antarctic ice cores to recreate temperatures going back 1,000 years and found the warming across the continent was outside what could be expected from natural swings.
In West Antarctica, a region considered particularly vulnerable to warming with an ice sheet that could push up global sea levels by several metres if it collapsed, the study found warming at twice the rate suggested by climate models.
Hunter Marston is an Adjunct Research Fellow at La Trobe Asia with La Trobe University, Melbourne, a PhD candidate in International Relations at Australian National University in the Coral Bell School of Asia-Pacific Affairs, and an Associate with 9DashLine. He was previously a 2021 nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum in Honolulu and the recipient of a Robert J. Myers Fellows Fund from the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. From 2015-2019, he was a Senior Research Assistant for the Center for East Asia Policy Studies and The India Project at the Brookings Institution. He also worked in the Center for Strategic & International Studies’ (CSIS) Southeast Asia program. He completed his Masters in Southeast Asia Studies and Masters in Public Administration at the University of Washington in 2013. In 2012 Hunter was a Harold Rosenthal Fellow in International Relations in the U.S. Embassy in Myanmar. He is the co-host of the Undiplomatic Podcast on international affairs and writes regularly on Southeast Asian politics and U.S. foreign policy. His work has appeared in Contemporary Southeast Asia, the New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and the Washington Post.
Dr. Bich Tran is a postdoctoral fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. In addition to being an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC, she has been a visiting fellow at the East West Center, International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS-Asia), and ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute among others. Dr. Tran obtained her PhD in Political Science from the University of Antwerp in Belgium. Her research interests include Vietnam’s grand strategy, Southeast Asian states’ relations with major powers, and political leadership. She has published on various platforms, including Asia Pacific Issues, Asian Perspective, Asian Politics & Policy, The Diplomat, East Asia Forum, and Fulcrum. Dr. Tran is the author of “Vietnam’s Strategic Adjustments and US Policy” (Survival 64, no. 6, 77–90)
Elina Noor is a senior fellow in the Asia Program at Carnegie where she focuses on developments in Southeast Asia, particularly the impact and implications of technology in reshaping power dynamics, governance, and nation-building in the region. Previously, Elina was director of political-security affairs and deputy director of the Washington, D.C. office at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Prior to that, Elina was an associate professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. She spent most of her career at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies Malaysia, where she last held the position of director, foreign policy and security studies. Elina was also formerly with the Brookings Institution’s Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World. Between 2017 and 2019, Elina was a member of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace. She currently serves on the ICRC’s Global Advisory Board on digital threats during conflict.
Javad Heydarian is a Senior Lecturer at the University of the Philippines, Asian Center, a columnist at the Philippine Daily Inquirer, and a Television Host at TV5 Network. He has written for the world’s leading publications, including The New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, and Foreign Affairs. He is the author of, among others, “Asia’s New Battlefield” (Zed, 2015), The Rise of Duterte: A Populist Revolt against Elite Democracy” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2017) and “The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Global Struggle for Mastery” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2019). He is also a regular contributor to leading global think tanks such as Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Brooking Institution, and Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). His forthcoming book is “China’s New Empire” (Melbourne University Press)
INTRODUCTION
Sailors have an expression, “fair winds and following seas,” to describe the favourable conditions which they desire when setting out to sea. Much like these seafarers, Southeast Asian maritime nations seek stable and peaceful waters for their security and prosperity. The South China Sea has long vexed regional policymakers and security strategists due to both the number and complexity of overlapping maritime territorial claims among regional actors, including Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
In the past two decades, China’s increasingly expansionist tendencies and willingness to use force to coerce or intimidate smaller claimants has reinforced growing threat perceptions vis-à-vis Beijing and fuelled hedging strategies. In February 2023, a Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessel targeted Filipino counterparts with a military-grade laser in the Spratly Islands.1 The following month, a CCG vessel caused a dangerous encounter with Vietnamese patrol boats during a patrol of Vietnamese oil and gas fields around Vanguard Bank. Around this time, a CCG vessel was also seen operating in close proximity to Malaysia’s Kasawari gas project near Luconia Shoals, prompting the Malaysian Navy to dispatch a Keris-class littoral ship to the area.
As a result of Chinese intimidation, Southeast Asian states have begun to prioritise maritime security as a central component of national defence and security strategies. While power asymmetry between regional states and China makes a concerted pushback against Chinese coercion unpalatable, arguably no state has mounted a consistent or coherent response to deal with this security challenge. Rather, Southeast Asian countries have adopted an array of hedging tactics to deepen engagement with China while bolstering their own domestic defence capabilities and simultaneously expanding security cooperation with a variety of external partners, including Australia, Japan, and Korea.
Hedging refers to insurance-seeking behaviour meant to signal ambiguity in a state’s alignment while cultivating fall-back options to preserve maximum autonomy. Few existing studies of hedging have considered the central role that maritime security plays in regional countries’ foreign policies. This paper therefore clarifies the maritime security strategies of three Southeast Asian claimant states (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) to assess how such strategies map onto or deviate from existing notions of hedging. In each of the case studies below, maritime security strategy is reflective of a state’s broader hedging strategy and mirrors the same fundamental tensions: power asymmetry, geographic proximity to a security threat, lack of political consensus, and profound strategic uncertainty, namely fears of abandonment or entrapment in a great power conflict. Seen in this light, maritime security strategy is a manifestation of states’ deeply ingrained preferences for ambiguity and unwillingness to choose sides in brewing superpower competition.
The paper concludes with a brief summary assessing the parallels between the three case studies and what they tell us about hedging and maritime security strategy
This post explains how the AIS vessel tracking system works and how bad actors abuse the system.
Miao Shou, Gaute Friis | AUGUST 21, 2023
Miao Shou
Analyst
Gaute Friis
Analyst
Tracking vessels’ Automatic Information System (AIS) signals is a core means SeaLight and other open-source intelligence collectors use to monitor maritime activity. AIS is a broadcast system that maritime authorities use to identify a vessel’s unique identification number, type, position, course, speed and navigation status.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandates the use of AIS to ensure maritime safety and direct marine traffic more efficiently. According to the International Maritime Organization’s International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Regulation V/19.2.4, all vessels over 300 gross tons (or 500 tons for those not on international voyages) and passenger ships of any size are required to “carry automatic identification systems capable of providing information about the ship to other ships and to coastal authorities.”
“Going dark” refers to the gray zone tactic of strategically turning off a vessel’s Automatic Information System (AIS) transponder to avoid detection.
Miao Shou | AUGUST 17, 2023
Vessels operating without AIS inside a country’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). (Credits: Unseenlabs)
Miao Shou
Analyst
“Going dark” refers to the gray zone tactic of turning off a vessel’s Automatic Information System (AIS) transponder to avoid detection. AIS is a signaling system used to identify a vessel’s type, position, course, speed and other navigation safety information, and is required by the International Maritime Organization for larger non-military ships operating in international waters. Read our primer on the AIS system here.
Going Dark in the Recent Water Cannon Incident
In a recent incident that involved the blockade and water-cannoning of a small Philippine resupply vessel and its escorts, six of the blockading ships were from the China Coast Guard. Of these, only one ship (CCG 5402) remained AIS-visible during the entire engagement, while two other ships (CCG 4203 and CCG 3302) broadcast AIS only intermittently.
This tactic consists of blasting another ship with a powerful stream of water using a high-pressure water cannon.
Gaute Friis | AUGUST 7, 2023
CCG 31101 blasts a VCG vessel with water cannon, May 5, 2014. (Source: VCG)
Gaute Friis
Analyst
As of this writing, the Philippines has just produced evidence that its coast guard and resupply vessels were subjected to assault by water cannons from China Coast Guard ships on 5 August 2023. This occurred during the regular rotation and resupply mission to the Philippine Navy’s outpost aboard the grounded BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas (Ayungin) Shoal, and is reminiscent of a similar incident in November 2021.
While China’s use of maritime gray zone tactics is well known, few resources describe the actual tactics in detail. We’ve developed a publicly available systematic examination of these concrete tactics, which we will roll out for you in the coming weeks.
Spoofing is the act of deceptively and deliberately falsifying a vessel’s AIS identifying information or location.
Gaute Friis | SEPTEMBER 3, 2023
A China Coast Guard (CCG) cutter transmits fraudulent AIS signals to nearby vessels, appearing as a fishing boat on their monitoring equipment (Credit: Gaille Powell).
Gaute Friis
Analyst
Spoofing is a deception tactic meant to disrupt monitoring of maritime activities. It is frequently employed by Chinese gray zone actors in the South China Sea. In contrast to the “going dark” tactic of simply disabling a vessel’s Automatic Information System (AIS) broadcast, the spoofing tactic involves manipulating transmitting signals in order to falsify a vessel’s identity and/or location.
In 1995, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates published a memo entitled “The Internet Tidal Wave.” Gates outlined seven areas where Microsoft could increase its focus on internet features, including a web browser. The next year Microsoft launched its Internet Explorer web browser. Microsoft faced an antitrust lawsuit by the Department of Justice in 1998 during the height of the Browser Wars. Its Internet Explorer was quickly becoming the go-to web browser for the masses, but the U.S. government argued it stifled competition.
CVD 