Chuyên mục: An ninh năng lượng – Energy security

Japan: How Energy Security Shapes Foreign Policy

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Jane Nakano on Japan’s energy policy and its approach to the Middle East, Russia, and the South China Sea.

Pollman_2_Brown
By Mina Pollmann
March 16, 2016

thediplomat_Five years after the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima, public debates over nuclear power are still having an impact on Japan’s energy mix — and that, in turn, helps shape Japanese foreign policy. The Diplomat speaks with Jane Nakano, a senior fellow in the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the connection between Japan’s energy security concerns and its foreign policy decision making.

The Diplomat: What effect do you think the indictment and impeding trial of the three former TEPCO executives will have on the public debate in Japan over the future of nuclear energy? What other energy options does Japan have?

Nakano: The current public apprehension over, or opposition to, nuclear power generation in Japan seems to stem from their loss of trust in nuclear safety and governance. It is unclear as to what extent the indictment of TEPCO officials five years later may serve to restore the public confidence in nuclear safety and governance.

Diversification will remain to be the key in enhancing Japan’s sense of energy security.  As fossil fuels will remain important in Japan, as in most of the industrialized economies around the world, Japan is focused on using natural gas—which is the cleanest type of fossil fuels—and advancing clean coal technologies while promoting the greater use of wind and solar.

How dependent is Japan on oil imports from the Middle East, and how does this shape Japan’s foreign policy approach to the region? Tiếp tục đọc “Japan: How Energy Security Shapes Foreign Policy” →

From Omen to Opportunity: How Cheap Oil Is Accelerating Sustainable Energy Investment

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

An increasingly unprofitable global oil market is driving fuel prices to historic lows and hemorrhaging investment in conventional energy sources. Breaking with tradition, cheap oil no longer foretells disaster for renewable energy companies. On the contrary, disillusioned fossil fuel investors are seeking high-growth opportunities—just in time to ride the renewables wave in the wake of the 2015 Paris climate talks.

worldwatch – Crashing out in February at $27 per barrel, crude oil prices have reached their lowest point in over 13 years, since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq. Despite a modest recovery in March driven by expectations for reduced production, investors remain skeptical of underlying oil market fundamentals and are reducing their exposure. These selloffs have dragged down the stock prices of large conventional energy companies listed in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index by 13 percent and have cost investors more than $703 billion since the record-high oil prices of June 2014.

Responding to these selloffs, oil companies have tightened their belts, decommissioning two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cutting investment in oil field exploration and development, while an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs. A Wood Mackenzie report identified 68 major oil and natural gas projects—representing a combined value of $380 billion and output of 2.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day—that have been put on hold since late 2014. Besides reducing operating costs, oil companies hope that these measures will have a stabilizing effect on the market by reducing productive capacity in the medium to long term. Tiếp tục đọc “From Omen to Opportunity: How Cheap Oil Is Accelerating Sustainable Energy Investment” →

ASEAN PLAN OF ACTION FOR ENERGY COOPERATION (APAEC) 2016-2025

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ 2 bình luận

FULL REPORT

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Energy is key to the realisation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which calls for a well-connected ASEAN to drive an integrated, competitive and resilient region. Energy is key to the realisation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) which calls for a well-connected ASEAN to drive an integrated, competitive and resilient region.

ASEAN is now one of the most dynamic and fastest growing economic regions in the world, and through the implementation of the AEC by end of December 2015, this growth is expected to continue. The region is projected to grow by at least 4% per year on average over the next five years, but could be as high as 6% – provided ASEAN moves towards greater integration, where member states continuously implement domestic structural reforms to raise their productivity and competitiveness under the framework of the AEC.

1 To fuel this growth, the demand in primary energy
2 is expected to grow by an average of 4.7% per year from 2013 to reach 1,685 Mtoe in 2035, according to the ASEAN Centre for Energy’s (ACE) 4 th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO4).

Addressing this growing demand for energy, which is driven by both economic and demographic growth, has been a challenge for ASEAN ahead of the AEC. Against this backdrop, the 32 nd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) held on 23 rd September 2014 in Vientiane, Lao PDR, endorsed the theme of the new ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC) 2016-2025 as “Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All” .

The theme also reflects the central elements of connectivity and energy security captured in the Nay Pyi Taw Declaration on the ASEAN Community’s Post 2015 Vision adopted by the ASEAN Leaders at the 25 th ASEAN Summit in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, on 12 th November 2014 The key initiatives under this APAEC include embarking on multilateral electricity trading to accelerate the realisation of the ASEAN Power Grid (APG), enhancing gas connectivity by expanding the focus of the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP) to include Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification terminals as well as promoting clean coal technologies. It also includes strategies to achieve higher aspirational targets to improve energy efficiency and increase the uptake of renewable energy (RE) sources, in addition to building capabilities on nuclear energy.

Plans to broaden and deepen collaboration with ASEAN’s Dialogue Partners (DPs), International Organisations (IOs), academic institutions and the business sector will be stepped up to benefit from their expertise and enhance capacity building in the region. The APAEC 2016-2025 will be implemented in two phases. Phase I will cover the period 2016-2020 for the implementation of short to medium-term measures to enhance energy security cooperation and to take further steps towards connectivity and integration. In 2018, there will be a stocktake of the progress of Phase I, which will guide ASEAN in charting the pathways and directives for Phase II (2021-2025).

 

 

The Effects of Fukushima Linger after Five Years, but Not from Radiation

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

While hundreds died in the evacuation, none perished as a result of exposure to radiation.

technologyreview : The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, which began on March 11, 2011, uprooted thousands of Japanese people, set the worldwide nuclear power industry back a decade, and caused a run on potassium iodide (said to help ward off thyroid cancer). What it didn’t do was kill anyone from radioactive fallout.

A Greenpeace report released this week, “Nuclear Scars: The Lasting Legacies of Chernobyl and Fukushima,” takes a harsher view, saying that “the health consequences of the Chernobyl and Fukushima catastrophes are extensive.” But most of the report dwells on Chernobyl, and it notes that the primary effects of Fukushima were “mental health disorders, such as depression, anxiety and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.” Put another way: fear and panic resulting from the accident (and from the loss of homes and livelihoods) were more dangerous than the radiation.
Tiếp tục đọc “The Effects of Fukushima Linger after Five Years, but Not from Radiation” →

Obama’s budget and hypocrisy on nukes

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

thehill – Earlier this month, President Obama released a budget proposal for 2017, which includes billions of dollars for controversial modernization programs for each leg of the nuclear triad — land-based, sea-based and aircraft missiles — and cuts to nuclear nonproliferation programs. This is troubling for a number of reasons, never mind the irony that this spending spree comes from the same man who delivered a 2009 speech in Prague pledging “America’s commitment to seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons.”

Of top concern are requests to allocate $95.6 million for the research and development of a new nuclear-tipped cruise missile, replacing the current air-launched cruise missile whose mission has long-since faded into irrelevance. The plan would also nearly double our cruise missile collection to around 1,000 missiles. These additions have been denounced by a chorus of military experts and former national security advisors, including the father of the nuclear-armed cruise missile, former Secretary of Defense William Perry.

Other nuclear modernization programs in the budget request include:

  • $25.7 million for a nuclear capability for the new F-35A Joint Strike Fighter aircraft.
  • $113.9 million for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program, a replacement for the current Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile system.
  • $137.9 million for a new guided tail-kit for the B61 tactical nuclear weapon life-extension program.
  • $1.36 billion for the Long-Range Strike Bomber, which is planned to replace the current B-52 and B-2 bomber aircraft.

Tiếp tục đọc “Obama’s budget and hypocrisy on nukes” →

Người có tầm nhìn của Thái Lan xây dựng ngành công nghiệp mặt trời với thúc đẩy từ IFC như thế nào

~ Lê Ngọc Sơn ~ 1 bình luận

English: How Thailand’s Solar Power Visionary Built an Industry with a Boost from IFC

Image

TIÊU ĐIỂM

– Một trong những người chiến thắng giải thưởng – UN Momentum for Change – Động lực cho sự thay đổi của LHQ năm nay đang thay đổi hoàn toàn công suất năng lượng tái tạo của Thái Lan với các trang trại năng lượng mặt trời quy mô lớn.

– Để có được nguồn tài chính liên tục cho những thứ mà lúc đó là một ngành công nghiệp mới của nước này, bà đã làm việc với Tập đoàn tài chính Quốc tế (IFC) của Ngân hàng Thế giới và Quỹ Công nghệ sạch để sử dụng nguồn tài chính tổng hợp.

– Dự án nâng công suất năng lượng sạch đã góp phần thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế ở một trong những vùng nghèo nhất của Thái Lan.

Ngân hàng Thế giới – thị trường năng lượng mặt trời của Thái Lan đã bế tắc trong năm 2008, với năng lượng mặt trời chiếm ít hơn 2 MW công suất lắp đặt. Mặc dù, chi phí công nghệ đã giảm, và chính phủ đã bắt đầu có ưu đãi khuyến khích phát triển năng lượng tái tạo. Wandee Khunchornyakong, một giám đốc điều hành sản xuất pin năng lượng mặt trời (đã về hưu), đã nhìn thấy tiềm năng.

Bà muốn giúp giảm sự phụ thuộc của Thái Lan vào năng lượng nhập khẩu, và bà tin rằng bà có thể thúc đẩy tăng trưởng kinh tế ở một trong những vùng nghèo nhất của đất nước cùng một lúc bằng cách xây dựng các trang trại năng lượng quy mô nhỏ.

Tài trợ từ Công ty Tài chính Quốc tế của Ngân hàng Thế giới đã cho Công ty năng lượng mặt trời (SPCG) của bà một lực đẩy cần thiết để thu hút các nhà đầu tư vào một sân chơi mới được kiểm chứng ở Thái Lan. Tiếp tục đọc “Người có tầm nhìn của Thái Lan xây dựng ngành công nghiệp mặt trời với thúc đẩy từ IFC như thế nào” →

Who’s afraid of cheap oil?

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Low energy prices ought to be a shot in the arm for the economy. Think again Jan 23rd 2016 | From the print edition Timekeeper

economist – ALONG with bank runs and market crashes, oil shocks have rare power to set monsters loose. Starting with the Arab oil embargo of 1973, people have learnt that sudden surges in the price of oil cause economic havoc. Conversely, when the price slumps because of a glut, as in 1986, it has done the world a power of good. The rule of thumb is that a 10% fall in oil prices boosts growth by 0.1-0.5 percentage points.

In the past 18 months the price has fallen by 75%, from $110 a barrel to below $27. Yet this time the benefits are less certain. Although consumers have gained, producers are suffering grievously. The effects are spilling into financial markets, and could yet depress consumer confidence. Perhaps the benefits of such ultra-cheap oil still outweigh the costs, but markets have fallen so far so fast that even this is no longer clear.

The new economics of oil

The world is drowning in oil. Saudi Arabia is pumping at almost full tilt. It is widely thought that the Saudis want to drive out higher-cost producers from the industry, including some of the fracking firms that have boosted oil output in the United States from 5m barrels a day (b/d) in 2008 to over 9m b/d now. Saudi Arabia will also be prepared to suffer a lot of pain to thwart Iran, its bitter rival, which this week was poised to rejoin oil markets as nuclear sanctions were lifted, with potential output of 3m-4m b/d. Tiếp tục đọc “Who’s afraid of cheap oil?” →

Vietnam Plans Move Away From Coal

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

January 28th, 2016 by

cleantecnica – Vietnam Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has announced his government’s intention to “review development plans of all new coal plants and halt any new coal power development.”

Vietnam prime minister

Nguyễn Tấn Dũng, Prime Minister of Vietnam

According to Solarplaza, the Premier stated that Vietnam needs to “responsibly implement all international commitments in cutting down greenhouse gas emissions; and to accelerate investment in renewable energy.”

The announcement comes in advance of the Solar PV Trade Mission, scheduled April 18 – 22 in Hanoi and Bangkok. It is hoped the trade missions will assemble diverse high-level delegations of stakeholders from around the world into emerging markets to jointly explore and create business development opportunities.
Tiếp tục đọc “Vietnam Plans Move Away From Coal” →

CSIS Energy Publication | Assessing the Final Clean Power Plan: Emissions Outcomes

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

FROM THE CSIS ENERGY AND NATIONAL SECURITY PROGRAM

Assessing the Final Clean Power Plan:
Emissions Outcomes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) is the most significant greenhouse gas (GHG) policy ever undertaken in the United States, and is expected to achieve significant emission reductions by the time it is fully implemented in 2030. However, calculating the ultimate emissions-abatement potential is more difficult than simply adding up the state reduction targets. While the EPA has set a floor on cumulative emissions from existing fossil-fuel-fired power plants, it has not set a ceiling, and projecting the actual emissions outcome on a national level is not straightforward due to the flexibility states have in implementation.

Our analysis deepens the understanding of the potential emissions outcomes of the CPP and what factors could influence that outcome. We start by explaining the primary factor that has the potential to undermine EPA’s emissions floor—leakage—and how EPA is attempting to address this issue. We then turn to a quantitative analysis of two potential pathways for state implementation plans (SIPs) under optimal implementation conditions. Bearing in mind that optimal implementation is unlikely, we also explore key drivers and decisions that could result in emissions that are higher or lower than our initial projections.

To read the full report, click here

By: John Larsen, Director, Rhodium Group, and Non-Resident Senior Associate, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS; Sarah Ladislaw, Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS; Michelle Melton, Associate Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS; and Whitney Herndon, Research Analyst, Rhodium Group

RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Adjusting to Low Prices:
Prospects for Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reform

By: Sarah Ladislaw, Director and Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS and Zachary Cuyler, Research Associate, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

Is India the Next China? An Energy-Related Comparison

By: Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS and Michelle Melton, Associate Fellow, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

Renewed Solar Subsidies – A Missed Opportunity

By: Francis O’Sullivan, Director of Research and Analysis, MIT Energy Initiative; Senior Associate, Energy and National Security Program, CSIS

Our Energy Transformation in 2015

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Like 1973, the year 2015 marked a decisive shift in the world’s energy economy.

technologyreview – In 2015 a series of events combined to drive what may well to be profound shifts—even turning points—in the history of the energy sector.

The ongoing decline in oil prices, which began as early as 2012, accelerated noticeably in 2015. The benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil price fell to $34.53 a barrel on December 18, lower than it’s been since before the financial crash of 2008, with no floor in sight. Goldman Sachs has predicted that oil could fall as low as $20 a barrel, a development that would cripple most oil-producing economies and have geopolitical ripple effects for years to come. At the same time, the price of natural gas remains near historic lows. Cheap oil and natural gas are conventionally thought to be negative influences on the adoption of renewable energy, lessening the incentives of businesses and consumers to give up fossil fuels. But that doesn’t seem to have slowed the shift away from fossil fuels in 2015.
Tiếp tục đọc “Our Energy Transformation in 2015” →

Germany Could Make $2 Billion By Exporting Electricity

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

November 10th, 2015 by

cleantecnica – The Fraunhofer Institute has found that Germany made about €1.7 billion, or $1.93 billion, in 2014 by selling surplus electricity. In 2015, that amount could reach €2 billion or $2.2 billion. Germany may also achieve a record export surplus of 40 TWh of electricity in 2015. “Over the past years, Germany was able to secure higher prices for its electricity exports than it paid for electricity imports,” explained Fraunhofer professor, Bruno Burger.

germancliffsRenewables added 118 TWh of energy production capacity in Germany from the period beginning in 2010 through 2014. What are some of Germany’s other exports? According to one source, Germany exported about $2.6 billion in pharmaceuticals to Japan in 2014. In 2007, cheese exports were about €2.7 billion. Tiếp tục đọc “Germany Could Make $2 Billion By Exporting Electricity” →

Đóng góp ý kiến cho Quy hoạch điện VII hiệu chỉnh (Việt Nam)

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

25/11/2015 | 13:40

Xem và tải báo cáo tại đây: Bản tiếng Việt – Bản tiếng Anh

GreenID – “Không cần đầu tư xây dựng mới khoảng 30.000 tới 40.000 MW nhiệt điện than mà có thể dùng nguồn đầu tư này vào việc thực hiện sử dụng hiệu quả năng lượng và phát triển nguồn năng lượng tái tạo trong khi vẫn đáp ứng được nhu cầu”. Đây là một trong những thông tin quan trọng được đề cập trong báo cáo “Phân tích Quy hoạch điện VII và một số khuyến nghị đối với Quy hoạch điện VII hiệu chỉnh – hướng tới phát triển năng lượng bền vững tại Việt Nam” do Trung tâm Phát triển Sáng tạo Xanh (GreenID) thực hiện với sự tham gia và tư vấn của các chuyên gia năng lượng trong nước và quốc tế.

Sau hơn 4 năm thực hiện Quyết định Phê duyệt Quy hoạch phát triển điện lực Quốc gia giai đoạn 2011-2020 có xét đến năm 2030 số 1208/QĐ-TTg ngày 21/7/2011 của Thủ tướng Chính phủ, ngành điện đạt được một số thành tựu đáng ghi nhận, từ chỗ phải tiết giảm điện trong các năm 2010-2011 do thiếu điện đến nay ngành điện không những đã cung cấp được đủ điện cho sản xuất và sinh hoạt của nhân dân mà còn có dự phòng. Tuy nhiên, Quy hoạch điện VII cũng đã bộc lộ một số vấn đề mang tính vĩ mô và ảnh hưởng tới tính khả thi như dự báo nhu cầu điện năng quá lớn khiến nhu cầu vốn đầu tư quá nhiều mà nền kinh tế không chịu nổi; huy động nhà máy nhiệt điện chạy than quá cao, nhu cầu than cung cấp cho điện quá lớn, có thể dẫn tới không đủ nguồn cung cấp kể cả nhập khẩu, không đảm bảo môi trường và phát triển bền vững; chưa chú trọng đúng mức tới nguồn năng lượng tái tạo. Tiếp tục đọc “Đóng góp ý kiến cho Quy hoạch điện VII hiệu chỉnh (Việt Nam)” →

Obama’s nuclear play

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Allen Greenberg | Nov 29, 2015

Here’s a nice bit of irony:

Energybiz – James Hansen, the scientist who was first to raise the alarm about climate change, fueling calls to shut down coal-fired power plants, will later this week urge the expansion of nuclear power.

In other words, depending on how things work out, utilities that were forced to close down or convert their coal-powered operations because of Hansen’s work, could soon find themselves thanking him for encouraging policymakers and regulators to approve plans to build new nuclear plants.

Hansen will issue his call in Paris, during the two-week climate conference that kicks off Monday. The conference is expected to draw some 20,000 attendees, including President Obama and 120 or so other world leaders.

Also read: First U.S. small modular reactor inches ahead

The hope of the climate talks is to keep global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. Few, however, expect the conference to deliver anything meaningful. That’s because the pledges being made to cut greenhouse gas emissions are voluntary and are unlikely to be enough to stave off environmental catastrophe. Tiếp tục đọc “Obama’s nuclear play” →

World Energy Outlook 2015

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này
 WEO-2015 cover
Order online here
WEO-2015 Table of Contents
WEO-2015 Acknowledgements
Introduction and ScopeExecutive SummaryArabic | Chinese | English | French | German | Italian | Japanese | Korean | Polish | Russian  | Spanish | ‌Turkish

Press Release
Presentation to the Press
Factsheets

The precipitous fall in oil prices, continued geopolitical instability and the ongoing climate negotiations are witness to the dynamic nature of energy markets. In a time of so much uncertainty, understanding the implications of the shifting energy landscape for economic and environmental goals and for energy security is vital. The World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) presents updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in CO2 emissions and fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies.

In addition, the WEO-2015 is informed by in-depth analysis on several topical issues:

— A lower oil price future? The decline in oil prices and changed market conditions have prompted a broad debate over how and when the oil market will re-balance. This analysis examines the implications for markets, policies, investment, the fuel mix and emissions if oil prices stay lower for longer. Tiếp tục đọc “World Energy Outlook 2015” →

Leading powers to double renewable energy supply by 2030

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này
solar re jpn
At present, only one-fifth of global demand for electric power is covered by renewable sources. Image: Shutterstock
IPS Friday 13 November 2015
 Eco-business – Eight of the world’s leading economies will double their renewable energy supply by 2030 if they live up to their pledges to contribute to curbing global warming, which will be included in the new climate treaty.
A study published this month by the World Resources Institute (WRI) analysed the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) of the 10 largest greenhouse gas emitters to determine how much they will clean up their energy mix in the next 15 years.