Chuyên mục: Biến đổi khí hậu – Climate change

Mekong Dam Monitor Weekly Update

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

February 24 – March 2, 2025 Stimson Mekong Monitor

Spotlight

Significant releases from China’s large dams push river to higher-than-normal levels.

Sustained large releases from China’s Xiaowan and Nuozhadu Dams are causing the river to run at levels 1-2 meters higher than normal along the Thai-Lao border. The two graphs illustrate  the sudden spike in river level occurring during the last days of February, corresponding to about 900 million cubic meters of water releases from China’s dams. Under normal dry season conditions, the river level does not spike in a manner seen on the graphs. At this time of year, the river level should gradually decrease over the next six weeks. Sudden spikes in river level, particularly those which run for sustained periods at higher levels, can be devastating for the river’s ecological processes and for the communities who depend on the river.

What Happened Last Week?

    • Where’s the Water: Last week, dams throughout the basin released a significant cumulative total of 1.6 billion cubic meters of water. Significant releases came from Xiaowan (PRC, 749 million cubic meters), Nuozhadu (PRC, 164 million cubic meters), and Thuen Hinboun Expansion (LAO, 199 million cubic meters). Dry season water releases generate hydropower but also artificially raise the level of the river. Where is the water?
    • River Levels: River levels throughout the basin are now about one meter higher than normal. See how this looks.
    • Wetness and Weather: While the headwaters of the Mekong in China are excessively wet (blue), most of the lower Mekong region is experiencing intensifying drought (red). Dry season irrigation activities in the Mekong Delta are creating slightly above average wetness anomalies in Vietnam’s delta. Temperatures in the Mekong basin were about average overall, with slightly above-average temperatures in the northern portion of the basin and slightly below average temperatures in the lower basin. See the maps.

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Impact of Trump 2.0 on Southeast Asia’s Energy Geopolitics

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Fulcrum.sg Published 3 Mar 2025 Mirza Sadaqat Huda

Trump’s rent-seeking foreign policy pertaining to energy and critical minerals will force Southeast Asian countries to do what they least desire: making a choice between China and the US.

The Trump administration’s insular and rent-seeking foreign policy will significantly alter the geopolitics of energy transition in Southeast Asia. This will manifest in two ways. First, the potential cessation of US involvement in the region’s energy sector will heighten fears of China’s dominance in energy infrastructure projects — including the ASEAN Power Grid (APG). Second, Trump’s intentions of using critical minerals as a bargaining chip for providing military assistance, if applied to the ASEAN region, will impact the regional vision for sustainable mineral development.

The shutting down of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), an important player in the energy sector, will intensify existing fears of China’s dominance in electricity transmission and generation. As shown in Table 1, China provided approximately US$534 million in aid to the region’s energy sector in 2022, accounting for more than a quarter of the total share. Comparatively, the US provided only US$23.7 million, or 1 per cent of total energy-related aid to Southeast Asia. In addition, the China Southern Power Grid Company and State Grid Corporation of China own and operate significant portions of the national grids in Laos and the Philippines, respectively.

China Leads in Energy Aid

Table 1 Energy-related aid to Southeast Asia 2022 (excerpt) (USD, in %)

Donor Amount Contribution
China 534 million 26
ADB 368 million 18
Germany 274 million 13
Canada 231 million 11
South Korea 211 million 10
Japan 167 million 8
World Bank 90.0 million 4
EU Institutions 42.3 million 2
France 42.2 million 2
AIIB 34.8 million 2
United States 23.7 million 1

The table is modified from Lowy Institute’s (2024) Southeast Asia Aid Map.

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Global Risks Report 2025: Conflict, Environment and Disinformation Top Threats

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Reliefweb.int

Full report https://www.weforum.org/publications/global-risks-report-2025/

World Economic Forum, public.affairs@weforum.org

  • State-based armed conflict emerges as the top immediate risk for 2025, identified by nearly a quarter of respondents, reflecting heightened geopolitical tensions and fragmentation globally.
  • Misinformation and disinformation lead the short-term risks and may fuel instability and undermine trust in governance, complicating the urgent need for cooperation to address shared crises.
  • Environmental risks dominate the 10-year horizon, led by extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
  • Read the Global Risks Report 2025 here and join the conversation using #Risks25. Follow the Annual Meeting here and on social media using #WEF25

Geneva, Switzerland, 15 January 2025 – The 20th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report, released today, reveals an increasingly fractured global landscape, where escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal and technological challenges threaten stability and progress. While economic risks have less immediate prominence in this year’s survey results, they remain a concern, interconnected with societal and geopolitical tensions.

State-based armed conflict is identified as the most pressing immediate global risk for 2025, with nearly one-quarter of respondents ranking it as the most severe concern for the year ahead.

Misinformation and disinformation remain top short-term risks for the second consecutive year, underlining their persistent threat to societal cohesion and governance by eroding trust and exacerbating divisions within and between nations. Other leading short-term risks include extreme weather events, societal polarization, cyber-espionage and warfare.

Environmental risks dominate the longer-term outlook, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, critical change to Earth systems and natural resources shortages leading the 10-year risk rankings. The fifth environmental risk in the top 10 is pollution, which is also perceived as a leading risk in the short term. Its sixth-place ranking in the short term reflects a growing recognition of the serious health and ecosystem impacts of a wide range of pollutants across air, water and land. Overall, extreme weather events were identified prominently as immediate, short-term and long-term risks.

The long-term landscape is also clouded by technological risks related to misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies.

“Rising geopolitical tensions and a fracturing of trust are driving the global risk landscape” said Mirek Dušek, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “In this complex and dynamic context, leaders have a choice: to find ways to foster collaboration and resilience, or face compounding vulnerabilities.”

Fractured systems, fragile futures

The report, which draws on the views of over 900 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September and October 2024, paints a stark picture of the decade ahead. Respondents are far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term. Nearly two-thirds of respondents anticipate a turbulent or stormy global landscape by 2035, driven in particular by intensifying environmental, technological and societal challenges.

Over half of respondents expect some instability within two years, reflecting the widespread fracturing of international cooperation. Long-term projections signal even greater challenges as mechanisms for collaboration are expected to face mounting pressure. Societal risks such as inequality and societal polarization feature prominently in both short- and long-term risk rankings. Rising concerns about illicit economic activity, mounting debt burdens and the concentration of strategic resources highlight vulnerabilities that could destabilize the global economy in the coming years. All these issues risk exacerbating domestic instability and eroding trust in governance, further complicating efforts to address global challenges.

All 33 risks in the ranking increase in severity score over the longer term, reflecting respondents’ concerns about the heightened frequency or intensity of these risks as the next decade unfolds.

“From conflicts to climate change, we are facing interconnected crises that demand coordinated, collective action,” says Mark Elsner, Head of the Global Risks Initiative, World Economic Forum. “Renewed efforts to rebuild trust and foster cooperation are urgently needed. The consequences of inaction could be felt for generations to come.”

A decisive decade: Collaboration as the key to stability

As divisions deepen and fragmentation reshapes geopolitical and economic landscapes, the need for effective global cooperation has never been more urgent. Yet, with 64% of experts anticipating a fragmented global order marked by competition among middle and great powers, multilateralism faces significant strain.

However, turning inward is not a viable solution. The decade ahead presents a pivotal moment for leaders to navigate complex, interconnected risks and address the limitations of existing governance structures. To prevent a downward spiral of instability – and instead rebuild trust, enhance resilience, and secure a sustainable and inclusive future for all – nations should prioritize dialogue, strengthen international ties and foster conditions for renewed collaboration.

Links to other visuals and graphics

– Current Risk Landscape – 2025

– Global risks ranked by severity- 2 years

– Global Risks ranked by severity – 10 years

– Short and long-term global outlook

– Global risks landscape an interconnections map

About the Global Risks Report
The Global Risks Report is the World Economic Forum’s flagship publication on global risks, now in its 20th edition. Produced by the Global Risks Initiative at the Forum’s Centre for the New Economy and Society, the report leverages insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey, which draws on the views of over 900 global leaders across business, government, academia and civil society. The report identifies and analyses the most pressing risks across immediate, short- and long-term horizons, aiming to equip leaders with foresight to address emerging challenges. It serves as a key resource for understanding the evolving global risk landscape and fostering collective action to build a more resilient future.

For more information, visit the Global Risks Initiative and read the full report here.

Bhutan at the frontier of the climate crisis | 101 East Documentary

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Al Jazeera English – 6-2-2025

The small Himalayan nation of Bhutan was the world’s first carbon-negative country.

With 70 % of its land covered by forests, it absorbs three times more carbon dioxide than it emits.

The environment is protected by the country’s constitution, and it is illegal to cut down trees without a permit.

Bhutan’s fast-flowing rivers provide the country with clean energy, making it almost entirely powered by hydroelectricity.

However, climate change and global warming are drying up rivers and threatening the country’s power supply.

In the high mountains, rising temperatures are causing glacial lakes to melt, increasing the risk of floods and other natural disasters.

101 visits Bhutan, a country at the frontier of climate change.

The National Security Imperative of USAID’s Food Security Programs

~ Đào Thu Hằng ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Climateandsecurity.org

As of today, the Trump Administration has paused two essential US global food security initiatives, Feed the Future and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). Created in reaction to the 2007-8 global food crisis and resulting instability, Feed the Future is a marquee US government food security program and tool for implementing the bipartisan Global Food Security Act, working in 20 countries to build a more resilient food system and supporting agricultural innovation at 17 US universities. Operating since 1985, FEWS NET provides rigorous analysis and forecasting of acute food insecurity to inform US and other humanitarian responses in 30 countries.

These programs make invaluable contributions to US national security and global stability. For example, Feed the Future builds resilience in five countries where the US National Intelligence Estimate on climate change assesses “building resilience…would probably be especially helpful in mitigating future risks to US interests.” In Central America, where drought during growing seasons has driven increased migration to the United States, Honduran Feed the Future beneficiaries report a 78% lower intent to migrate than the wider population. Meanwhile, FEWSNET’s data and analysis more quickly and efficiently direct US humanitarian support in reaction to conflict, economic shocks, and extreme weather, including in regions where the US military is deployed. 

Both programs have historically received consistent bipartisan support. Speaking at the launch of a new Feed the Future initiative last year, Senator John Boozman (R-AR) noted, “food security is national security.” Another Feed the Future supporter, Representative Tracey Mann (R-KS 1st District), has highlighted the value of his district’s Feed the Future Innovation Lab and stated that global food security programs have “an especially strong return on investment because they support American agriculture producers today, while greatly reducing the need for conflict or war-related dollars spent tomorrow” and are “a way to stop wars before they start.” As Executive Director of the World Food Program (2017-2023), former South Carolina Governor and Representative David Beasely testified to the Senate that “Investments in early warning systems like USAID’s Famine Early Warning System…allow humanitarian partners to project and respond in real time to potential emergencies….Without this capacity to forecast food insecurity, the cost of humanitarian intervention is much greater, both in dollars and lives lost.”

Last year, dozens of national security leaders, including the former commanders of Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), Africa Command (AFRICOM), and Central Command (CENTCOM), endorsed the Council on Strategic Risks’ The Feeding Resilience Plan: Safeguarding US National Security at the Crossroads of Food and Climate Change. The report makes recommendations to US policymakers to better anticipate, prevent, and respond to food- and climate-driven national security threats, including to:

  • “Support long-term resilience building in vulnerable countries by sustaining and expanding Feed the Future,” noting it and similar programs “bolster vulnerable countries’ ability to withstand food shocks and forestall security threats or need for costly US assistance,” and
  • “Expand on USAID’s FEWS NET to include longer-term food insecurity warnings” and to have security and defense agencies better “integrate FEWSNET projections with processes to forecast political instability and conflict.”

Amid multiplying threats from instability, extreme weather, and geopolitical competition, these recommendations remain critical today, and highlight the important national security benefits of capabilities like Feed the Future and FEWS NET.  

Việt Nam có 11,8 triệu ha đất đang bị sa mạc hoá

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

VNN – 22/12/2024 10:45

Biến đổi khí hậu và các hoạt động của con người gây ra khiến 11,8 triệu ha đất của nước ta đang bị sa mạc hoá.

Nỗi lo đất bị sa mạc hoá. Ảnh: VNN

Theo Bộ Tài nguyên và Môi trường, nước ta có khoảng 1,2 triệu ha đất bị suy thoái nặng, 3,8 triệu ha đất suy thoái trung bình và 6,8 triệu ha đất suy thoái nhẹ. Vùng có diện tích đất suy thoái lớn nhất là Trung du miền núi phía Bắc, Bắc Trung Bộ và Duyên hải miền Trung.

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Swapping gas for batteries

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

USAID – Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Language

How USAID Supports Vietnam’s Journey to Net Zero

With over 70 million scooters and motorcycles on the roads in Vietnam, over 90% of households own one, two wheelers in Vietnam are ubiquitous. They form the backbone of the shipping sector, easily navigating the chaotic traffic and narrow back alleys to deliver goods. However, this contributes to air that is clouded with exhaust for Vietnamese citizens.

Emissions in Vietnam have multiplied fivefold in the last 20 years. As pollution worsened, the demand for electric vehicles (EV) skyrocketed. Vietnam is now home to the third largest two-wheeler EV market in the world—but the sector still lags far behind that of the gasoline-powered two wheelers. Improved government policies and a two wheel EV ecosystem are needed to support Vietnam’s EV shift, reduce emissions, and clean up its air.

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Mekong Delta factory workers between a rock and a hard place

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

mekongeye.com – By Võ Kiều Bảo Uyên

18 March 2024 at 13:44 (Updated on 19 March 2024 at 10:27)

Garment and footwear workers from the delta seek alternative jobs as threats of mass layoffs loom, and while many want to return home, it remains their last resort

A workers’ dormitory in Tân Tạo Ward, Bình Tân District, Hồ Chí Minh City. PHOTO: Thành Nguyễn.

HỒ CHÍ MINH CITY, VIỆT NAM – Every weekend, workers at Adidas supplier Pouyuen swap their hairnets for vendor hats. Facebook groups then turn into online bazaars, teeming with sales posts of ready-to-eat meals, vegetables, fruit, snacks and sweets.

These side gigs that started as a way of coping with the reduced hours and layoffs during the Covid-19 pandemic have now evolved into full-time commitments for many of these workers, most of them women.

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Thảm kịch lũ quét và sạt lở sau bão Yagi: Sự cố hi hữu hay vấn đề hệ thống? 

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

tia sáng – 8-10-2024 – Hà Thị Hằng – Lưu Thị Diệu Chinh

Từ thực tế ảnh hưởng của cơn bão Yagi, đã đến lúc, chúng ta cần suy nghĩ đến việc cần thiết phải bảo vệ các khu vực miền núi trước thiên tai theo một cách khác.

Trận lũ phá tan hoang khu vực bản trung tâm của xã Hồ Bốn, Mù Cang Chải, Yên Bái vào tháng 8 năm 2023. Ảnh: Việt Cường

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Bất ngờ cuộc sống ở “Làng du lịch tốt nhất thế giới” Tân Hóa trong cảnh ngập lụt

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

NĐT –  15:38 | Thứ sáu, 20/09/2024 0

Thay vì lo âu, sợ hãi chạy lên núi tránh trú khi lũ đến như mọi năm. Bây giờ người dân ở “Làng du lịch tốt nhất thế giới” Tân Hóa (Quảng Bình) vui vẻ, sinh hoạt ăn uống bình thường, ngắm nhìn dòng nước lũ trên nhà phao một cách bình yên.

Làng Tân Hóa bình yên bên dòng lũ.

Tính đến 13 giờ ngày hôm nay (20.9), vùng “rốn lũ” Tân Hóa, huyện Minh Hóa, tỉnh Quảng Bình – nơi trở nên nổi tiếng bởi được công nhận là một trong những “Làng du lịch tốt nhất thế giới” năm 2023 – có gần 430 ngôi nhà bị ngập sâu từ 0,5-2m.

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How the climate crisis fuels gender inequality

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

The climate crisis may be a collective problem, but its impacts do not fall equally. Women and girls often bear the heaviest burdens.

November 30, 2023

Editor’s note

This story is part of As Equals, CNN’s ongoing series on gender inequality. For information about how As Equals is funded and more, check out our FAQ.

Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, finding existing injustices and amplifying them. Women and girls already grapple with gender inequality, but when extreme weather devastates a community, the UN found that inequalities worsen: Intimate partner violence spikes, girls are pulled from school, daughters are married early, and women and girls forced from their homes face a higher risk of sexual exploitation and trafficking.

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A critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests

~ Trần Đình Hoành ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Angela Fritz

By Angela Dewan and Angela Fritz, CNN

Updated 10:56 AM EDT, Sat August 3, 2024

Light blue and turquoise phytoplankton seen through the clouds highlight the ocean currents off the coast of Greenland. New research suggest an important system of these currents is at risk of collapsing as soon as next decade.

Light blue and turquoise phytoplankton seen through the clouds highlight the ocean currents off the coast of Greenland. New research suggest an important system of these currents is at risk of collapsing as soon as next decade. NASA Earth/Shutterstock/FILECNN — 

A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents that influences weather across the world could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested in a new study — a planetary-scale disaster that would transform weather and climate.

Several studies in recent years have suggested the crucial system — the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC — could be on course for collapse, weakened by warmer ocean temperatures and disrupted saltiness caused by human-induced climate change. Tiếp tục đọc “A critical system of Atlantic Ocean currents could collapse as early as the 2030s, new research suggests” →

Những dòng sông vĩnh viễn đổi thay

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

Tia sáng – 24-5-2024

Có một kịch bản chung không thể đảo ngược ở tất cả các con sông, dù chúng có mặt ở bất cứ nơi nào, đó là nếu đã xây đập thủy điện và khai thác cát quá mức, tất yếu sẽ cạn kiệt phù sa dẫn tới biến dạng sông, xói lở hạ du, hạ thấp lòng dẫn, rút chân đồng bằng, …

Không ai mường tượng hết những gì sẽ xảy ra, bởi mọi chuyện giờ mới chỉ bắt đầu.

“Hồi tôi mới về công tác thì các bãi này còn rất rộng, có những điểm chiều rộng cả km, nhưng giờ đã mất sạch”, ông Vũ Thanh Thuận, Hạt phó Hạt Đê điều Hải Hậu, nhìn ra dải bờ biển kể trong tiếng sóng vỗ dưới chân kè nhà thờ đổ Trái tim Chúa của giáo xứ Xương Điền, xã Hải Lý, điểm được kè để giữ lại chứng tích của những trận xói lở. “Sóng đánh vào làm nứt chân đê, đất cát dần trôi ra, đê bị hở hàm ếch, xong bị sập dần từng đoạn”.

“Trước năm 1995, lở dần bãi ngoài đê, đê có dấu hiệu bị dọa vỡ ở nhiều điểm, chính quyền đã vận động dân di dời vào phía trong và bắt đầu đắp tuyến đê số hai ở sâu bên trong để dự phòng”, ông Thuận nhớ lại. Cuộc di chuyển kéo dài trong chục năm theo tốc độ ăn vào của biển, một số hộ chuyển sâu vào phía trong đê số hai, một số hộ không còn đất để chuyển vào đã bỏ đi miền Nam.

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Dự án kênh Phù Nam Techo: Vấn đề chia sẻ thông tin

~ Phạm Thu Hương ~ Bình luận về bài viết này

THANH TUẤN – 11/05/2024 09:34 GMT+7

TTCT – Dự án kênh đào Phù Nam Techo của Campuchia gây chú ý gần đây khi xuất hiện lo ngại dự án sẽ làm thay đổi dòng chính sông Mekong, tác động tới vùng lũ và sinh kế người dân Đồng bằng sông Cửu Long.

Ảnh: Getty

Chỉ ngắn hơn kênh đào Suez 13km, dự án 180km này dự kiến nối thủ đô Phnom Penh của Campuchia với tỉnh Kep, giáp biên giới Việt Nam. 

Được coi là nỗ lực hồi sinh hệ thống sông ngòi lịch sử Campuchia, con kênh với bề rộng 100m và sâu 5,4m có thể phục vụ tàu 3.000 tấn vào mùa khô và 5.000 tấn vào mùa mưa.

Theo China Global South Project, con kênh sẽ kéo dài từ khu vực Prek Takeo của sông Mekong tới Prek Ta Ek và Prek Ta Hing của sông Bassac (sông Hậu) và đi qua bốn tỉnh Kandal, Takeo, Kampot và Kep, với ba hệ thống âu tàu, 11 cầu và 208km đường ven bờ được xây dựng bởi Tập đoàn Cầu đường Trung Quốc (CRBC) theo mô hình BOT. 

Thủ tướng Campuchia Hun Manet ủng hộ mạnh mẽ dự án, và nói nó không có tác hại gì tới môi trường, đặc biệt là tới dòng Mekong đi qua nhiều nước ASEAN.

Tối 5-5, trả lời báo chí, người phát ngôn Bộ Ngoại giao Việt Nam Phạm Thu Hằng nói: “Việt Nam rất quan tâm và tôn trọng lợi ích chính đáng của Campuchia theo tinh thần của Hiệp định Mekong 1995, phù hợp với các quy định liên quan của Ủy hội sông Mekong và quan hệ láng giềng hữu nghị truyền thống giữa hai nước”. 

Về dự án kênh Phù Nam Techo, bà Hằng nói Việt Nam mong “Campuchia tiếp tục phối hợp chặt chẽ với Việt Nam và các nước trong Ủy hội sông Mekong chia sẻ thông tin, đánh giá đầy đủ tác động của dự án này đối với nguồn nước, tài nguyên nước và môi trường sinh thái của khu vực tiểu vùng sông Mekong cùng các biện pháp quản lý phù hợp nhằm bảo đảm hài hòa lợi ích của các quốc gia ven sông, quản lý, sử dụng hiệu quả và bền vững nguồn nước và tài nguyên nước sông Mekong”.

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