ZHENGZHOU, China, April 20 (Reuters) – Severe power shortages in China’s southwestern Yunnan province are likely to cut aluminium production in the country’s fourth-largest producing province, analysts and producers said, but weak demand will cap price rises.
Yunnan, which accounts for about 12% of China’s aluminium capacity, has forced electrolytic aluminium producers to reduce their power usage since September last year after unusually low rainfall reduced hydropower generation.
Hydropower generates about 80% of the province’s electricity, and had attracted investment by energy-intensive aluminium smelters keen to lower their emissions.
The output of the metal in Yunnan jumped by 37% in 2022 from the prior year to 4.2 million tonnes.
Now, however, about 2 million tonnes of capacity, or 20% of the provincial total, is offline, Li Jiahui, an analyst at consultancy Shanghai Metals Market, told a conference in Zhengzhou.
Average rainfall in Yunnan during the first quarter of 2023 was 60% lower than the same period in typical years, the provincial government’s emergency management department said.
Hydroelectric reservoirs’ water levels are lower than annual averages, according to a May 10 report from Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN), and 10 are either close to or under the ‘dead level’.
Current water levels at Lai Chau hydroelectric reservoir. (Photo: kinhtedothi.vn)
Hanoi (VNS/VNA) – Hydroelectric reservoirs‘ water levels are lower than annual averages, according to a May 10 report from Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN), and 10 are either close to or under the ‘dead level’.
During the monitoring of the national electricity system in April and early May, prolonged intense heat waves across a wide area led to a significant increase in electricity consumption.
Even though the early May heatwave in the northern region only lasted a few days, it resulted in very high levels of power capacity and electricity consumption throughout the country.
For instance, the total power consumption on May 6, albeit a Saturday, reached 43,300 megawatts, while the total energy consumption reached 895 million kilowatts per hour (kWh).
Forecast for the upcoming months of May, June, and July indicates that the northern region will enter the peak period of hot weather, resulting in an increasing trend of electricity consumption, surpassing the planned operation of the national power system approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
Meanwhile, the hydrological situation of reservoirs in recent months has experienced unfavourable fluctuations, significantly lower than the multi-year average.
Many hydropower reservoirs across the country are facing water shortages, with several hydropower reservoirs in the central and southern regions experiencing low water levels.
According to the EVN, 10 are close or under the “dead level”, which means that the total consumption is under 4,500 megawatts.
These reservoirs are Lai Chau, Tri An, Ialy, Ban Chat, Huoi Quang, Trung Son, Buon Kuop, Buon Tua Srah, Srepok 3, and Song Ba Ha.
The remaining electricity production in the entire system is 4.5 billion kWh, which is 1.6 billion kWh lower than the planned amount and 4.1 billion kWh lower than the same period in 2022.
According to the forecast by the National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), as El Nino is expected to occur in the later months of 2023, there will be higher temperatures and lower rainfall compared to the multi-year average, which will further contribute to a decreasing trend in water inflow to reservoirs during the second half of the year.
To deal with this situation, EVN asked its customers to tighten energy-saving consumption, especially in the noon and evening hours.
EVN recommends putting air conditioners at a reasonable level, between 26 to 27 degrees Celsius, and avoiding using multiple high-capacity electrical devices simultaneously./.
Long power cuts made life harder for residents and enterprises in suburban areas of Hanoi amid the scorching weather on Saturday.
Residents sought ways to escape the heatwave while many enterprises suspended their operations during the blackouts.
In particular, part of Lai Yen Commune, Hoai Duc District suffered a power outage, causing many enterprises and business establishments to close.
The Trung Yen gas station in the Lai Yen Industrial Cluster in the namesake commune erected the ‘out of gasoline’ sign from the early morning until afternoon on Saturday due to the power cut.
Hue, a chef in the Lai Yen Industrial Cluster, said it was extremely hot during power cuts and she could not prepare meals for workers.
Two ventilation fans, an evaporative cooler, and an industrial fan are normally needed while she is cooking.
“I cannot cook without electricity. I have to buy noodles for workers. After the meal, they cannot do anything [as there is no power],” she complained.
Để các dự án năng lượng tái tạo được sớm phát lên lưới, trách nhiệm không chỉ nằm ở EVN mà còn của Bộ Công Thương, UBND các tỉnh và nhất là các chủ đầu tư.
Được mở đường, nhà đầu tư vẫn lừng khừng
Đến nay có 85 dự án điện tái tạo (gồm 8 dự án điện mặt trời và 77 dự án điện gió), với tổng công suất hơn 4.700MW đã và đang đầu tư, xây dựng và lỡ hẹn giá ưu đãi vì giá FiT cho điện gió kết thúc vào tháng 31/10/2021 và điện mặt trời kết thúc vào tháng 12/2020.
Nhiều dự án điện gió, điện mặt trời lỡ hẹn giá FiT. Ảnh: Thạch Thảo
Mãi đến ngày 7/1/2023, Bộ trưởng Công Thương mới ban hành quyết định về khung giá phát điện nhà máy điện mặt trời, điện gió chuyển tiếp. Sự chậm trễ này rõ ràng có phần trách nhiệm của Bộ Công Thương.
Nhưng từ đó đến giữa tháng 5/2023, rất ít chủ đầu tư gửi hồ sơ đàm phán đến Công ty mua bán điện thuộc EVN (EPTC) vì nhà đầu tư “chê” mức giá đó là quá thấp.
Căn cứ mức giá trần này, mỗi kWh điện mặt trời mặt đất có giá tạm tính là 592,45 đồng; điện mặt trời nổi là 754,13 đồng; điện gió trong đất liền là 793,56 đồng; điện gió trên biển là 907,97 đồng.
Mapped: Asia’s Biggest Sources of Electricity by Country
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that Asia will account for half of the world’s electricity consumption by 2025, with one-third of global electricity being consumed in China.
To explore how this growing electricity demand is currently being met, the above graphic maps out Asia’s main sources of electricity by country, using data from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy and the IEA.
A Coal-Heavy Electricity Mix
Although clean energy has been picking up pace in Asia, coal currently makes up more than half of the continent’s electricity generation.
No Asian countries rely on wind, solar, or nuclear energy as their primary source of electricity, despite the combined share of these sources doubling over the last decade.
% of total electricity mix, 2011
% of total electricity mix, 2021
Coal
55%
52%
Natural Gas
19%
17%
Hydro
12%
14%
Nuclear
5%
5%
Wind
1%
4%
Solar
0%
4%
Oil
6%
2%
Biomass
1%
2%
Total Electricity Generated
9,780 terawatt-hours
15,370 terawatt-hours
The above comparison shows that the slight drops in the continent’s reliance on coal, natural gas, and oil in the last decade have been absorbed by wind, solar, and hydropower. The vast growth in total electricity generated, however, means that a lot more fossil fuels are being burned now (in absolute terms) than at the start of the last decade, despite their shares dropping.
Following coal, natural gas comes in second place as Asia’s most used electricity source, with most of this demand coming from the Middle East and Russia.
Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuels have powered extraordinary growth and development, albeit with huge costs to our climate. As a direct result, we are today in a climate emergency.
To avert catastrophe, we must now radically switch to a sustainable, net-zero future. This transition needs to happen fast, but it also has to happen in a fair and inclusive way.
If done right, the transition offers immense opportunities: a systems change in which all communities, workers, and countries are lifted up.
Promisingly, momentum around “just transition” is gathering pace. We are seeing it emerge in the global dialogue around decarbonization and net zero. More countries are referencing it in their short and long-term climate plans. Partners are coming together, and coalitions are forming.
So what’s it all about?
What is “just transition”?
The concept of “just transition” has been around since the 1980s, when it was used in a movement by US trade unions to protect workers affected by new water and air pollution regulations.
In recent years, the concept has gained traction with reference to meeting climate goals by ensuring the whole of society – all communities, all workers, all social groups – are brought along in the pivot to a net-zero future.
Phó Thủ tướng Chính phủ Trần Hồng Hà vừa ký Quyết định 165/QĐ-TTg phê duyệt Đề án tái cơ cấu ngành Công Thương giai đoạn đến năm 2030.
Mục tiêu tổng quát của Đề án là tái cơ cấu ngành Công thương nhằm thúc đẩy chuyển dịch cơ cấu nền kinh tế, nâng cao năng suất, chất lượng, giá trị gia tăng và năng lực cạnh tranh của ngành…
Với mục tiêu này, Bộ Công thương cũng được đề ra từng nhiệm vụ cụ thể, bao gồm: Tái cơ cấu ngành công nghiệp, tái cơ cấu ngành năng lượng, tái cơ cấu lĩnh vực xuất nhập khẩu, tái cơ cấu thị trường trong nước và hội nhập kinh tế quốc tế.
The security of supply of gas has been the hottest topic of the last 12 months since Russia invaded Ukraine. James Kneebone at theFlorence School of Regulation (FSR) has written an explainer that lays out the EU’s history of dealing with energy security, going back to the 1990s. Because the EU has a single market for natural gas and widely shared value chains (pipelines, LNG terminals, storage, etc.), impacts are felt across the bloc. But that interconnectedness is also a strength and the basis for ensuring security across the region. Kneebone also details the updated regulations that are behind the drive to build in new capacity and obligations for solidarity between Member States. It means that today, the coordination and cooperation for allocating resources and delivering better energy security are stronger than ever.
What is security of supply?
The European Environment Agency (EEA) define security of energy supply as “…the availability of energy at all times in various forms, in sufficient quantities, and at reasonable and/or affordable prices.” In the context of gas security of supply specifically, the concept refers to the provision of gaseous energy, namely ‘natural gas’[1].
By Pamela Constable and Shaiq Hussain January 24, 2023 at 4:39 a.m. EST
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Three weeks ago, Pakistani authorities ordered all markets, restaurants and shopping malls to close early, part of an emergency plan to conserve energy as the country of 220 million struggled to make overdue payments on energy imports and stave off a full-fledged economic collapse.
But the measures were too little, too late. On Monday morning, the country’s overburdened electrical system collapsed in a rolling wave of blackouts that began in the desert provinces of Baluchistan and Sindh but quickly spread to nearly the entire country, including the densely crowded cities of Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi.
What started as a sharp post-pandemic rise in energy prices in mid-2020 has turned into a full-blown global energy crisis. How is this affecting the political stability of countries?
17 January 2023 – by Heba Hashem
Last updated on 24 January 2023
The world is going through a global energy crisis. Fuel costs affect many parts of daily life, including energy for heating and lighting, individual travel and commodities transportation.
Actually, there is a global energy crisis. From Indonesia to the UK and Peru, people across the globe have taken their anger to the streets. As many as 92 countries witnessed protests against high fuel prices between January and September 2022. These include developed European countries like France, Spain and the UK.
Earthquakes can be induced by dams. Globally, there are over 100 identified cases of earthquakes that scientists believe were triggered by reservoirs (see Gupta 2002). The most serious case may be the 7.9-magnitude Sichuan earthquake in May 2008, which killed an estimated 80,000 people and has been linked to the construction of the Zipingpu Dam.
How Do Dams Trigger Earthquakes?
In a paper prepared for the World Commission on Dams, Dr. V. P Jauhari wrote the following about this phenomenon, known as Reservoir-Induced Seismicity (RIS): “The most widely accepted explanation of how dams cause earthquakes is related to the extra water pressure created in the micro-cracks and fissures in the ground under and near a reservoir. When the pressure of the water in the rocks increases, it acts to lubricate faults which are already under tectonic strain, but are prevented from slipping by the friction of the rock surfaces.”
Given that every dam site has unique geological characteristics, it is not possible to accurately predict when and where earthquakes will occur. However, the International Commission on Large Dams recommends that RIS should be considered for reservoirs deeper than 100 meters.
Depth of the reservoir is the most important factor, but the volume of water also plays a significant role in triggering earthquakes.
RIS can be immediately noticed during filling periods of reservoirs.
RIS can happen immediately after the filling of a reservoir or after a certain time lag.
Many dams are being built in seismically active regions, including the Himalayas, Southwest China, Iran, Turkey, and Chile (see map). International Rivers calls for a moratorium on the construction of high dams in earthquake-prone areas.
By 2015, the dam industry had choked more than half of the Earth’s major rivers with some 57,000 large dams. The consequences of this massive engineering program have been devastating. The world’s large dams have wiped out species; flooded huge areas of wetlands, forests and farmlands; and displaced tens of millions of people.
Courtesy of James Syvitski at Colorado University, who produced the video with Bob Stallard of the USGS and Albert Kettner at CSDMS. Data from Alex de Sherbinin (CIESIN, University of Colorado), and Bernhard Lehner (Department of Geography, McGill University).
The “one-size-fits-all” approach to meeting the world’s water and energy needs is also outdated: better solutions exist. While not every dam causes huge problems, cumulatively the world’s large dams have replumbed rivers in a massive experiment that has left the planet’s freshwaters in far worse shape than any other major ecosystem type, including tropical rainforests. In response, dam-affected communities in many parts of the world are working to resolve the legacies of poorly planned dams. Elsewhere (and especially in North America), communities are starting to take down dams that have outlived their usefulness, as part of a broader river restoration movement.
The Governments of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam, together with the International Partners Group, consisting of the European Union, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the United States of America, Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Republic of France, the Italian Republic, Canada, the Kingdom of Denmark and the Kingdom of Norway;
Recognising the need to accelerate action towards the objectives and long-term goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, including through the implementation of the Glasgow Climate Pact, to minimise the worst adverse impacts of climate change for countries, people and the environment;
Noting that limiting global warming to 1.5°C to mitigate the worst adverse impacts of climate change requires rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, including reducing global carbon dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030 relative to the 2010 level and to net zero around mid-century as well as deep reductions in other greenhouse gas emissions, emphasising climate change adaptation and achieving net zero emissions as an opportunity for sustainable development;
Recognising that for Viet Nam, as an independent, sovereign and fast developing lower middle income country heavily affected by the impacts of climate change, it will be key to embrace the opportunities brought about by the fast decreasing cost of renewable energies as an opportunity for sustainable development and to tackle related challenges such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, which are exacerbated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change, and that vulnerable groups and some important economic sectors may be impacted by the energy transition, including thermal electricity generation, coal mining, heavy industry and transport;
Recognising the need for new, predictable, long-term and sustainable support from partner countries, multilateral organisations and investors in finance, technology and capacity building for Viet Nam to exploit fully the opportunities of the transition in accordance with the national framework of public debt and external debt management to contribute significantly to the implementation of the NDC of Viet Nam, its commitment to reach to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and its development orientation to become a high-income developed country by 2045;
The Vinh Tan thermal power plant in Binh Thuan province, Vietnam.Credit: Depositphotos
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Earlier this fall, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry shone a spotlight on Vietnam, urging the Southeast Asian nation to “do what is sensible” and refocus its energy sector by investing in renewables and retiring fossil fuels. His remarks coincided with a deal between the European Union and the United Kingdom that made headway last week, which will see the two powers invest at least $11 billion in Vietnam’s green transition. The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) seeks to cancel projects for new coal plants and build out 60GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Expected to be finalized at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting next month, the ambitious package will include public and private financing, technology transfers, and technical assistance.
JETP is not the first deal of its kind. The last decade has seen investors show a growing interest in expanding renewable technology in Southeast Asia. But for Vietnam’s government, the green energy transition is less about a passion for saving the planet and more about driving economic growth by any means possible. Vietnam cares about decarbonization – and renewables do have the potential to become the lowest-cost available energy option. But many political, regulatory, and financing challenges still stand in the way of this goal. Vietnam will ultimately act in its own best interest when deciding its energy future, but it must be wary of not getting overly ambitious with its commitments to the green transition by taking on debt and accepting capital for projects that are premature, imprudent, or ill-advised. An “energy transition” can be dangerous to any developing country that does not have the same risk tolerance as wealthier nations, and Vietnam is susceptible to falling into this trap.
We need only call to mind the first half of 2022 for an array of the extreme, energy-related global challenges we all face. Around the world, local versions of climate change effects—the temperatures, wildfires, droughts, storms, flooding—underscore how important it is for us to transition away from our overdependence on fossil fuels. And our energy sources don’t just have environmental implications but security ones as well. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is the latest rendition of the resource curse. At the heart of it all, fossil fuels are what enabled and amplified the murderous narcissism we see in Vladimir Putin and created a country with an unbalanced and unhealthy domestic economy able to profoundly destabilize energy flows and prices around the world.
The South China Sea (SCS) brings together its own assortment of these complex challenges and factors. Competing security concerns, resource needs, and nationalisms shape the motivations of the claimants. Much of the attention and conflict has centred on the oil and gas in the seabed. Estimates of SCS hydrocarbon volumes vary; only some of these resources are proven reserves that have been confirmed and measured, and are actually recoverable. But even in more generous assessments, the SCS only provides us with a small percentage of the global total of oil and gas reserves, and even less of the overall energy mix if we include non-fossil-fuel energy sources.
Beyond hydrocarbons, in a two-way tie with the adjacent Coral Triangle, the SCS has the highest level of marine biodiversity in the world. SCS fisheries feed and employ millions of people in the region. It’s true that conflict over these living marine resources also drives the territorial disputes in the region, and a wide variety of human activity degrades the SCS ecosystem. Yet drilling for hydrocarbons in the SCS threatens this vulnerable marine habitat even more, while also clearly contributing to geopolitical and security tensions in the region—and to climate change.
Given how destabilizing oil and gas pursuits have been for the SCS since the 1970s, we might ask ourselves whether we want to keep drilling for fossil fuels there. Do the costs and risks outweigh the benefits?
Download this 21-page report (button above) from Dr. Tabitha Grace Mallory, an inaugural John H. McArthur Research Fellow, an initiative of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, and the Founder of China Ocean Institute and Affiliate Professor, Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington.
Below, explore the rich marine biodiversity of the South China Sea, one of the most hotly-contested maritime jurisdictions on the planet, in this original map created by the author and APF Canada graphic designer Chloe Fenemore, based on historical and contemporary maps cited in the full report.
Tabitha Grace Mallory is the Founder of China Ocean Institute and Affiliate Professor, Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington. Dr. Mallory specializes in Chinese foreign and environmental policy. She conducts research on China and global ocean governance and has published work on China’s fisheries and oceans policy.
Dr. Mallory is an inaugural John H. McArthur Research Fellow, an initiative of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada launched in 2021 to provide research opportunities for exceptional, mid-career scholars who are working on programs and research areas with direct relevance to Canada and Canada’s interests in Asia.
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