Fulcrum.sg Published 3 Mar 2025 Mirza Sadaqat Huda

Trump’s rent-seeking foreign policy pertaining to energy and critical minerals will force Southeast Asian countries to do what they least desire: making a choice between China and the US.

The Trump administration’s insular and rent-seeking foreign policy will significantly alter the geopolitics of energy transition in Southeast Asia. This will manifest in two ways. First, the potential cessation of US involvement in the region’s energy sector will heighten fears of China’s dominance in energy infrastructure projects — including the ASEAN Power Grid (APG). Second, Trump’s intentions of using critical minerals as a bargaining chip for providing military assistance, if applied to the ASEAN region, will impact the regional vision for sustainable mineral development.

The shutting down of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), an important player in the energy sector, will intensify existing fears of China’s dominance in electricity transmission and generation. As shown in Table 1, China provided approximately US$534 million in aid to the region’s energy sector in 2022, accounting for more than a quarter of the total share. Comparatively, the US provided only US$23.7 million, or 1 per cent of total energy-related aid to Southeast Asia. In addition, the China Southern Power Grid Company and State Grid Corporation of China own and operate significant portions of the national grids in Laos and the Philippines, respectively.

China Leads in Energy Aid

Table 1 Energy-related aid to Southeast Asia 2022 (excerpt) (USD, in %)

Donor	Amount	Contribution
China	534 million	26
ADB	368 million	18
Germany	274 million	13
Canada	231 million	11
South Korea	211 million	10
Japan	167 million	8
World Bank	90.0 million	4
EU Institutions	42.3 million	2
France	42.2 million	2
AIIB	34.8 million	2
United States	23.7 million	1

The table is modified from Lowy Institute’s (2024) Southeast Asia Aid Map.

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