theconversation.com

Published: June 8, 2023 12.44pm BST

As clashes continue between the Sudanese military and rapid support forces, the current and historic role of foreign governments in Sudanese affairs is under close examination.

Unsurprisingly, the Sudan conflict has amplified concerns from the US and other countries about the roles Russia and China are playing in Sudan specifically, and in Africa.

Researchers had been concerned that Beijing’s loans for infrastructure and development to countries including Sudan might be “debt-trap diplomacy”, a predatory attempt to acquire key foreign infrastructure such as ports.

Analysts had previously suggested the implications of China’s growing military engagement with Africa including establishing naval bases and its use of security contractors are examples of Beijing wanting to expand its military power and political influence abroad.

Others have suggested that Russian activity in Africa could be a return to Soviet-era levels of influence through arms sales, joint military exercises, and installing their own set of security contractors to train the Sudanese military.

The Wagner Group, a high profile group of Russian mercenaries, has denied any involvement in events in Sudan, saying in a post on Telegram: “Due to the large number of inquiries from various foreign media about Sudan, most of which are provocative, we consider it necessary to inform everyone that Wagner staff have not been in Sudan for more than two years.”

China favours stability

Our work for PeaceRep, an international research consortium led by Edinburgh law school, suggests that the US and Europe should be cautious about lumping Russia and China’s goals in Africa together. It found that Beijing and Moscow are taking different approaches. China has its own set of interests, but its approach appears to fundamentally favour stability.

As a result, China is keener to work with the broader international community on issues such as peacekeeping and mediation of conflicts. Conversely, Russia pursues its interests in Africa without as much cooperation with international institutions.

Our new report looks at the available data for pre-war Sudan to see how well claims from scholars and commentators match Russia and China’s behaviour.

We consolidated data from the United Nations, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the AidData research lab on Chinese and Russian engagement with Sudan, as well as news reports to examine how well the arguments from scholars and policymakers hold up.

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