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Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new study published in the journal Nature shows. Developed by an international science commission engaging more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system. 

For the first time, safety and justice for humanity on Earth is assessed and quantified for the same control variables regulating life support and Earth stability. Justice, assessed based on avoiding significant harm to people across the world, tightens the Earth system boundaries, providing even less available space for humans on Earth. This is extremely challenging, as the Earth Commission concludes that numerous of the safe boundaries are already crossed today. 

Convened by Future Earth, the Earth Commission is the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.

“We are in the Anthropocene, putting the stability and resilience of the entire planet at risk. This is why, for the first time, we present quantifiable numbers and a solid scientific foundation to assess the state of our planetary health not only in terms of Earth System stability and resilience but also in terms of human wellbeing and equity / justice.” said Prof. Johan Rockström, Earth Commission Co-Chair, lead author and Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.  

“Justice is a necessity for humanity to live within planetary limits. This is a conclusion seen across the scientific community in multiple heavyweight environmental assessments. It is not a political choice. Overwhelming evidence shows that a just and equitable approach is essential to planetary stability. We cannot have a biophysically safe planet without justice. This includes setting just targets to prevent significant harm and guarantee access to resources to people and for as well as just transformations to achieve those targets”  said co-author Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Co-Chair of the Earth Commission, Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam and Professor of Law and Policy in Water Resources and Environment at IHE Delft Institute for Water Education.

Read the paper

Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Published: 31 May 2023, Earth Commission , nature.com

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Authors:

Johan Rockström

Joyeeta Gupta, 

Dahe Qin, 

Steven J. Lade, 

Jesse F. Abrams, 

Lauren S. Andersen, 

David I. Armstrong McKay, 

Xuemei Bai, 

Govindasamy Bala, 

Stuart E. Bunn, 

Daniel Ciobanu, 

Fabrice DeClerck, 

Kristie Ebi, 

Lauren Gifford, 

Christopher Gordon, 

Syezlin Hasan, 

Norichika Kanie, 

Timothy M. Lenton, 

Sina Loriani, 

Diana M. Liverman, 

Awaz Mohamed, 

Nebojsa Nakicenovic, 

David Obura, 

Daniel Ospina, 

Xin Zhang 

Nature (2023)Cite this article

Abstract

The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked^1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently^4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)⁴. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.

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